Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) momentum cools as investors await Q2 Model 3 production numbers
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has experienced a roller coaster of a month this June, at one point almost coming within reach of its all-time high before plunging back 6.9% last week and settling at $333.63. As of June 22, Tesla had risen 25.4% quarter-to-date, making it one of the best-performing stock among automakers. Since then, however, the company’s shares have plunged ~10% amid reservations about the viability of the Model 3’s fourth assembly line and an ongoing lawsuit against a former employee.
Tesla has a huge week ahead, with the second quarter of 2018 ending this coming Saturday; and with it, its deadline to hit its goal of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 per week. The all-elusive goal has hung over the Elon Musk-led company since the Model 3 started production mid-2017. This time, however, Tesla is closer to its target than ever before, thanks to another assembly line for the compact electric car set up in a massive sprung structure on the Fremont factory’s grounds. As the end of Q2 approaches, however, the Elon Musk-led company’s critics are upping the ante in their attempts to bring the electric car maker’s shares down.
- Lots filled with the Tesla Model 3 ahead of Q2 2018’s end. [Credit: Tesla Bull/Twitter]
- Lots filled with the Tesla Model 3 ahead of Q2 2018’s end. [Credit: Tesla Bull/Twitter]
- A satellite image showing a lot filled with Tesla vehicles. [Credit: Tesla Bull/Twitter]
Apart from expressing doubts about the company’s ability to scale the production of the Model 3, Tesla’s critics are now focusing on the feasibility of the compact electric car’s newest assembly line. Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. financial analyst Max Warburton, for one, called Tesla’s strategy “insanity,” citing the unusual nature of the tent-housed line. Investors’ sentiments also appear to have soured after the company filed a lawsuit against Martin Tripp, a former employee accused of hacking into the company’s manufacturing operating system, exporting confidential data to external entities, and misreporting to the media. Tripp is currently fighting back, claiming he was a whistleblower.
Recent signs, however, seem to be pointing in favor of Tesla. This weekend alone, photographs and videos of massive lots filled with the compact electric car emerged online. While the number of the vehicles spotted in these sightings is difficult to estimate, one thing is very clear — Tesla’s production numbers for the compact electric car for the second quarter of 2018 would be its most impressive yet.
A lot of activity at the Tesla Fremont factory today. Multiple carriers loading Model 3s #Tesla $TSLA $TSLAQ pic.twitter.com/EP5Jl4J8xI
— TeslaOptimist (@TeslaOptimist) June 22, 2018
Quick road trip from SF to LA. This is the second trailer full of #Tesla #model3 I’ve seen this morning. $tsla And yes, thats @jonnajarian on @HalftimeReport in the background lol cc @GerberKawasaki pic.twitter.com/FTy8vhTsgV
— Miles Brown Asset Management (@MilesBrownAM) June 25, 2018
Just yesterday, John Totah, a Tesla employee working at Gigafactory 1, also posted a tweet suggesting that the company has managed to hit a production throughput of 5,000 units per week. Totah eventually set his Twitter profile on private, but not before he added a public comment stating that Tesla’s current lines for Gigafactory 1 in Nevada already have the potential to produce 6,000 Model 3 battery packs per week — a target that was mentioned in a leaked email from Elon Musk earlier this year. While Totah’s tweet does not directly translate to a production output of 5,000 Model 3 per week, knowing that Gigafactory 1 is manufacturing battery packs at a pace equivalent to the company’s Q2 2018 target bodes well for Tesla.
This Monday, Tesla battled to maintain its position, dropping only -0.19% and ending the day at $333.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, fell -1.33%, while the NASDAQ went down -2.09%.
As of Tuesday’s pre-market, Tesla is still standing firm, up 0.37% and trading at $334.25 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario


