Investor's Corner
Tesla could be ‘the next battleground’ for UAW amid Sweden strikes: analyst
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) could very well be “the next battleground” for the UAW after this Fall’s strikes with Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, according to Dan Ives of Wedbush. The analyst also said that the automaker’s battle with Scandinavian unions, especially in Sweden, has highlighted a potential for unions in the U.S. to target it, hoping Tesla will be the next unionized car company in the country.
Unions have been one of the focal issues of 2023 in the automotive sector. Ford, GM, and Stellantis just had a multi-week conflict with the UAW that halted production and saw workers indirectly related to production lines, like hauler drivers, join in acts of solidarity.
Tesla has unfortunately found itself in the same situation in Sweden, as the union is trying to force the automaker to sign a collective bargaining agreement. Tesla maintains that its workers have as good or better work benefits without the union.
However, other unions have decided to partake in actions that hurt Tesla in Sweden. Everything from unloading Teslas at nearby ports to picking up the company’s trash has stopped, all in an effort to force the company to make a move it probably will not end up making.
The big picture involving Tesla and unions is starting to catch the eye of analysts, including Ives, who is a tech analyst bullish on Tesla. Ives holds a $310 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock, but he is well aware of what the unionization process could bring and how it could complicate the automaker’s U.S. performance, where it is most dominant.
-->Although Ives writes in a new note to investors that the UAW is very unlikely to succeed in a battle with Musk and Tesla, it is important to recognize that the current situation in Sweden highlights the potential for this issue to spread:
“While the Scandinavian situation is a contained situation that Tesla is battling, it’s an important lightning rod issue around unions globally. With the Shawn Fain-led UAW battle vs. Detroit, which results in GM, Ford, and Stellantis giving in to union demands, the next battleground could be Tesla. We continue to believe it’s very unlikely that unions will have success going after Musk and Tesla in 2024 given its current DNA and anti-union culture.”
The issue to Ives lies in whether Tesla decides to concede to the Swedish union. If it does, he believes it sets somewhat of a precedent for other unions to try and establish terms within Tesla in various regions. If not, it may help the automaker in future unionization attempts, which are likely coming, especially in the U.S., as Fein said after negotiations with Ford, GM, and Stellantis that it would be “the big five or six” in a few years, instead of the current “Big Three.”
Ives said:
“This speaks to why this current dispute and how Tesla handles it politically speaking/negotiations within Sweden is an important issue for the ramifications down the road Musk & Co. might face with other unions globally in this current climate. We will be watching this situation carefully over the coming weeks/months.”
-->Tesla shares are up just under two percent at 10:45 a.m. on the East Coast.
I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla launches crazy Full Self-Driving free trial: here’s how you can get it
Tesla Full Self-Driving warrants huge switch-up on essential company strategy
