Investor's Corner
Tesla becomes 4th-largest US short amid countdown for Q3’s earnings
Earlier this year, Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) held the title of being the most-shorted company in the US stock market. But at the end of August, Tesla became second to Amazon as the US’ most-shorted stock, before being overtaken by Apple in early September. On Tuesday, Tesla’s place in the list fell again, putting the carmaker directly behind e-commerce behemoth Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), tech giant Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), and chipmaker Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM). With this, Tesla has now become the 4th-largest short in the US market.
The recent updates on Tesla’s short interest were posted yesterday by S3 Partners LLC Managing Director of Predictive Analytics Ihor Dusaniwsky. The S3 Partners exec noted that Tesla’s short interest is currently at $8.16 billion with 32.58 million shares shorted, corresponding to 25.55% of the company’s float. Dusaniwsky stated that over the past week, 1.2 million shares were covered amidst the steep 17% drop in TSLA stock. Tesla shorts are also up $416 million in mark-to-market profits.
$TSLA short interest is $8.16 billion, the 4th largest U.S. short behind $AAPL, $AMZN & $QCOM; 32.58 million shares shorted; 25.55% of float. 1.2 million shares covered over the last week as #Tesla's stock price fell 17%. Shorts up $416 million in mark-to-market October profits pic.twitter.com/5iXW8KWpvB
— Ihor Dusaniwsky🇺🇦 (@ihors3) October 9, 2018
Tesla stock saw a sharp decline last week when Elon Musk courted renewed controversy by posting a series of tweets critical of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Musk tweeted against the SEC on Thursday, at a time when Tesla stock was already down 4.4%. After Musk posted his criticism of the agency on Twitter, Tesla shares dipped 2% more. The following trading days were equally cruel to TSLA, with the stock ending Monday at a nearly 18-month low. The electric car maker showed some recovery on Tuesday, though, with shares rising 4.89% amidst a positive note from Macquarie Capital Inc, which gave Tesla an Outperform rating and a price target of $430 per share.
Despite its lower rankings in the list of most-shorted companies in the US market, Tesla remains a heavily-shorted stock. That said, the number of TSLA shares held short today is considerably lower than May’s figures, when Tesla had 39 million shares were held short – the highest in the company’s history. TSLA short interest has mostly decreased since then, recently falling to just 32.58 million shares as of Tuesday.
The apparent decline in Tesla’s short interest comes as the countdown for the release of Tesla’s Q3 2018 earnings report continues. Tesla had ambitious targets in the third quarter, as the company aimed to produce and deliver more than 50,000 Model 3 from July to September – a goal that was achieved. That said, while Tesla was able to set new delivery and production records in Q3, it remains to be seen if the company was able to turn a profit – target set by Elon Musk earlier this year.
A critical factor that can contribute to Tesla’s earnings in Q3 would lie in the Model 3, the company’s first attempt at a mass-market car. That said, if the company’s Q3 production and delivery figures are any indication, it appears that Q3 was the quarter when the Model 3 ramp started hitting its stride. Less than 48 hours before Q3 ended, Elon Musk even sent an email to Tesla employees, encouraging them to push harder since the company was “very close to profitability.”
“We are very close to achieving profitability and proving the naysayers wrong, but, to be certain, we must execute really well tomorrow (Sunday). If we go all out tomorrow, we will achieve an epic victory beyond all expectations,” Musk wrote.
This November, the market would see if Tesla achieved the “epic victory” that Elon Musk teased in his email. Despite the controversy stirred by Musk on Twitter, after all, Tesla’s fundamentals appear to be steadily improving.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Tesla says Europe could finally get FSD in 2026, and Dutch regulator RDW is key
Tesla stock lands elusive ‘must own’ status from Wall Street firm
