Investor's Corner
Trending $TSLA: Remove the “noise”
Last week I introduced the MACD indicator. This week I will present a different way of displaying stock charts that works well with the MACD to help in forecasting future stock behavior.
Most profits and losses are generated when markets are trending. Market “noise” is simply all of the price data that distorts the picture of the underlying trend. This includes mostly small corrections and intraday volatility. Noise removal is one of the most important aspects of active trading. By employing noise-removal techniques, traders can avoid false signals and get a clearer picture of an overall trend.
The Heikin Ashi technique (“average bar” in Japanese) is one of many techniques used to remove noise and improve the isolation of trends to predict future prices.
Heikin Ashi charts are a type of candlestick chart that shares many characteristics with standard candlestick charts, but differs because of the values used to create each bar. I will not bore you with the formulas used to calculate the candlestick components (close, open, high, low). The Heikin Ashi formula factors in the current bar with an average of past bars in order to create a smoother trend. This process creates smoother price patterns that are much easier to read.
Daily Heikin Ashi charts are used to display “pay-day cycles” that display the daily trends, without the “noise.”
Take a look at the difference between the standard candlestick and the Heikin Ashi charts of TSLA stock for the past 5 months. First let’s take a look at the standard candlestick chart.
Candlestick Chart (Source: Wall Street I/O)
Now let’s take a look at the Heikin Ashi chart.
Heikin Ashi Chart (Source: Wall Street I/O)
Notice that in the latter chart the Jan.-Feb. and the May downtrends are more clearly visible, as well as the Feb-March huge uptrend gain.
In my trading I combine pay-day-cycles with the MACD. I make sure that the pay-day-cycle has turned positive (colored green in the chart above), and then I wait for the MACD to cross to the bulls to initiate a probing bullish trade.
Taking a look at today’s situation, this may be the first day of a green Heikin Ashi bar after 12 red bars. I also notice that the MACD is starting to flatten. We may be starting to form a bottom, and this could be the beginning of a potential reversal in the downtrend in TSLA stock, so I will be watching closely for an entry point when both indicators turn positive. Notice that in general the pay-day-cycle turns positive before the MACD does.
Heikin Ashi charts are now provided by most trading platforms: Wallst.io (select Chart Type – Pay Day Cycle), TD Ameritrade’s Thinkorswim (select Style – Chart Type – Heikin Ashi, Daily), OptionHouse (select Style: Heikin Ashi, Range: 6 Months, Frequency: 1 Day).
Also StockCharts.com offers free Heikin Ashi charts (enter TSLA, Chart Attributes, Type Heikin-Ashi, Update).
Source: StockChart.com
One interesting pattern that formed at the closed today is a “Doji”: a Doji candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign, and forms where a security’s open and close of the day are virtually equal. This often can be the precursor of a reversal. Secondly, the recent 50-day MA (Moving Average) move above the 200-day MA occurred a couple of weeks ago (see the chart above), again another usual precursor of a forthcoming bullish trend. And lastly, TSLA has support at the 206 level, from last November 2015. All of these are reasons to be bullish on TSLA, especially for short-term swing traders.
Is $TSLA going to reverse and move back up or will it start to compress, i.e. go sideways like it did in April? What do you guys think?
Investor's Corner
Tesla crushes Wall Street expectations, beats delivery estimates by over 15 percent
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat Wall Street expectations of 406,000 vehicles delivered in Q2 by reporting 480,126 deliveries for the three months ending in June.
Tesla reported it delivered 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y units, while 12,364 Model S, Model X, and Cybertrucks switched hands during the quarter. The Model S and Model X were officially sunset this past quarter and will no longer be part of the company’s Production & Delivery reports moving forward.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, ANNIHILATING Wall Street expectations of 406,000. Production was reported at 451,758.
Deliveries:
Model 3/Y: 467,762
Other Models: 12,364Production:
Model 3/Y: 442,936
Other Models: 8,822 https://t.co/TTHwQAsKt8 pic.twitter.com/7qI4Zj6FE5— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 2, 2026
The quarter is a pleasant surprise and a good rebound from Q1, when Tesla slightly missed the Wall Street consensus of 365,645 cars by reporting 358,023 deliveries for the first three motnhs of the year.
Energy storage deployments also provided some strength in Tesla’s delivery report, hitting 13.5 GWh for Q2. This is a particular division of Tesla’s business that has been overwhelmingly robust over the past few years, truly being a strong point of the company’s overall model.
For the year, Tesla analysts still predict deliveries to trend in the 1.69 million unit region, a modest 3 to 5 percent increase from the 1.64 million cars the company delivered last year. Tesla will likely return to more sequential and noticeable year-over-year growth as the Cybercab project starts to ramp up considerably in the next few years.
Tesla has some other potential catalysts to spur vehicle deliveries, too. Not only is it expecting Cybercab to truly start making a change in the next few years, but other vehicles could be entering the company’s lineup.
Tesla sends production Cybercab with no steering wheel, pedals to on-road testing
The slightly longer Model Y L has been a highly speculated release candidate in the U.S. It has already done incredibly well in China, and U.S. buyers have been wanting slightly more interior space than the Model Y. Now that the Model X is gone, it is more needed than ever.
Q2 highlights a pretty stable automotive division within Tesla, and no true concerns arise from these figures, especially considering it managed to beat expectations convincingly.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
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