Investor's Corner
Trending $TSLA: Remove the “noise”
Last week I introduced the MACD indicator. This week I will present a different way of displaying stock charts that works well with the MACD to help in forecasting future stock behavior.
Most profits and losses are generated when markets are trending. Market “noise” is simply all of the price data that distorts the picture of the underlying trend. This includes mostly small corrections and intraday volatility. Noise removal is one of the most important aspects of active trading. By employing noise-removal techniques, traders can avoid false signals and get a clearer picture of an overall trend.
The Heikin Ashi technique (“average bar” in Japanese) is one of many techniques used to remove noise and improve the isolation of trends to predict future prices.
Heikin Ashi charts are a type of candlestick chart that shares many characteristics with standard candlestick charts, but differs because of the values used to create each bar. I will not bore you with the formulas used to calculate the candlestick components (close, open, high, low). The Heikin Ashi formula factors in the current bar with an average of past bars in order to create a smoother trend. This process creates smoother price patterns that are much easier to read.
Daily Heikin Ashi charts are used to display “pay-day cycles” that display the daily trends, without the “noise.”
Take a look at the difference between the standard candlestick and the Heikin Ashi charts of TSLA stock for the past 5 months. First let’s take a look at the standard candlestick chart.
Candlestick Chart (Source: Wall Street I/O)
Now let’s take a look at the Heikin Ashi chart.
Heikin Ashi Chart (Source: Wall Street I/O)
Notice that in the latter chart the Jan.-Feb. and the May downtrends are more clearly visible, as well as the Feb-March huge uptrend gain.
In my trading I combine pay-day-cycles with the MACD. I make sure that the pay-day-cycle has turned positive (colored green in the chart above), and then I wait for the MACD to cross to the bulls to initiate a probing bullish trade.
Taking a look at today’s situation, this may be the first day of a green Heikin Ashi bar after 12 red bars. I also notice that the MACD is starting to flatten. We may be starting to form a bottom, and this could be the beginning of a potential reversal in the downtrend in TSLA stock, so I will be watching closely for an entry point when both indicators turn positive. Notice that in general the pay-day-cycle turns positive before the MACD does.
Heikin Ashi charts are now provided by most trading platforms: Wallst.io (select Chart Type – Pay Day Cycle), TD Ameritrade’s Thinkorswim (select Style – Chart Type – Heikin Ashi, Daily), OptionHouse (select Style: Heikin Ashi, Range: 6 Months, Frequency: 1 Day).
Also StockCharts.com offers free Heikin Ashi charts (enter TSLA, Chart Attributes, Type Heikin-Ashi, Update).
Source: StockChart.com
One interesting pattern that formed at the closed today is a “Doji”: a Doji candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign, and forms where a security’s open and close of the day are virtually equal. This often can be the precursor of a reversal. Secondly, the recent 50-day MA (Moving Average) move above the 200-day MA occurred a couple of weeks ago (see the chart above), again another usual precursor of a forthcoming bullish trend. And lastly, TSLA has support at the 206 level, from last November 2015. All of these are reasons to be bullish on TSLA, especially for short-term swing traders.
Is $TSLA going to reverse and move back up or will it start to compress, i.e. go sideways like it did in April? What do you guys think?
Investor's Corner
Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.
On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.
🚨 Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and $500 PT on Tesla $TSLA stock
Analyst Alexander Potter said FSD is near full autonomy and latest versions showed the largest improvement in disengagements, from 440 miles to 9,200 miles between critical interventions pic.twitter.com/u4WCLfZcA9
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 9, 2025
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.
Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.
Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.
Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.
Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it
With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.
Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Tesla expands new Full Self-Driving program in Europe
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