The United Auto Workers (UAW) has successfully agreed on tentative contracts with Ford, General Motors (GM) and Stellantis after over six weeks of strikes. However, the union’s president now says that the next round of contract negotiations will include more than just the Big Three, highlighting desires to unionize other automakers like Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen and others.
UAW President Shawn Fain said on Sunday that the next round of bargaining, set for 2028 when contracts expire again, will include more than just the Big Three, instead including a “Big Five or Big Six,” as detailed in a report from Bloomberg. The statements came after it has been widely speculated that Fain and the UAW might target Tesla next now that the union has come to tentative agreements with Ford, Stellantis and GM.
“One of our biggest goals coming out of this historic contract victory is to organize like we’ve never organized before,” Fain said. “When we return to the bargaining table in 2028, it won’t just be with a Big Three, but with a Big Five or Big Six.”
Earlier this month, Fain also called workers at Tesla, Toyota, Honda and others “UAW members of the future,” highlighting his ambitions to boost membership to include the automakers.
UAW President: Tesla workers are union “members of the future”
Tesla and other automakers, such as Toyota and Volkswagen, have U.S. facilities, though the UAW does not represent workers at those sites. Tesla is not a surprise target for the UAW, being the world’s most valuable automaker and the dominant market leader in electric vehicles (EVs), along with employing tens of thousands of U.S. workers in California, Texas, Nevada and New York.
According to a person familiar with the matter in the Bloomberg report, Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, has a UAW organizing committee, and its members are actively talking to workers about the benefits of unionization and collective bargaining. The person also said that the UAW has shared its commitment to offering any needed resources for that campaign.
However, past unionization attempts at Tesla have failed, and CEO Elon Musk has been outspoken about his disdain for unions on many occasions. Last year, Musk invited the UAW to hold a vote at its Fremont factory, though it never took place.
A union is just another corporation. Far better for many companies to compete for your skills, so that you have maximum optionality.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 26, 2022
Labor efforts in other industries show that the landscape has changed since one Tesla worker at the Fremont factory went public with attempts to have the UAW unionize the plant in 2017. At the time, Musk also opposed the attempt, calling the union drive “morally outrageous,” and the campaign faded away after a few years.
“The UAW would love to get into Tesla, but I don’t think they have a chance,” said former Fremont employee Mark Eberley, who worked on a UAW drive at Tesla prior to his departure in 2020.
Others who previously worked at Tesla told Bloomberg that corruption scandals at the UAW and the switch to become a non-union factory when the automaker purchased the plant in 2010 were both viewed as liabilities to a unionization effort. In 2020, former UAW President Dennis Williams pleaded guilty to conspiracy to embezzle union funds after serving as the group’s leader from 2014 to 2018.
Despite the scandal, Fain and the UAW’s success in coming to a tentative agreement with the Big Three comes at a time when several other labor efforts have also taken shape. Additionally, Gallup data shows that the U.S. public has shifted in its views on unions since the last unionization efforts at Tesla. While just over half of Americans reported approving of labor unions in 2016, that number has risen to roughly 67 percent in 2023.
“Any effort to organize Tesla would be a battle royale,” said Seth Harris, President Joe Biden’s former deputy director at the National Economic Council. “The UAW is showing itself to be a militant, well-organized force.”
What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send your tips to us at tips@teslarati.com.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT
Tesla reported $2.763 billion in regulatory credit profits last year.
One Tesla analyst is saying that a major stock concern that has been discussed as the Trump administration aims to eliminate many financial crutches for EV and sustainable industries is overblown.
As the White House continues to put an emphasis on natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels, investors are concerned that high-powered sustainability stocks like Tesla stand to take big hits over the coming years.
However, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter believes it is just the opposite, as a new note to investors released on Monday says that the situation, especially regarding regulatory credits, is “not as bad as you think.”
Tesla stacked emissions credits in 2023, while others posted deficits
There have been many things during the Trump administration so far that have led some investors to consider divesting from Tesla altogether. Many people have shied away due to concerns over demand, as the $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit will bow out at the end of Q3.
The Trump White House could also do away with emissions credits, which aim to give automakers a threshold of emissions to encourage EV production and cleaner powertrains. Companies that cannot meet this threshold can buy credits from other companies, and Tesla has benefitted from this program immensely over the past few years.
As the Trump administration considers eliminating this program, investors are concerned that it could significantly impact Tesla’s balance sheet. Potter believes the issue is overblown:
“We frequently receive questions about Tesla’s regulatory credits, and for good reason: the company received ~$3.5B in ‘free money’ last year, representing roughly 100% of FY24 free cash flow. So it’s fair to ask: will recent regulatory changes threaten Tesla’s earnings outlook? In short, we think the answer is no, at least not in 2025. We think that while it’s true that the U.S. government is committed to rescinding financial support for the EV and battery industries, Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026. This latter figure represents a modest reduction vs. our previous expectation…in our view, there’s no need for drastic estimate revisions. Note that it’s difficult to forecast the financial impact of regulatory credits — even Tesla itself struggles with this — but the attached analysis represents an honest effort.”
Tesla’s regulatory credit profitability by year is:
- 2020: $1.58 billion
- 2021: $1.465 billion
- 2022: $1.776 billion
- 2023: $1.79 billion
- 2024: $2.763 billion
Potter and Piper Sandler maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, and kept their $400 price target.
Tesla shares are trading at $329.63 at 11:39 a.m. on the East Coast.
News
Tesla rolls out update to Robotaxi service that makes pickups so much better
The update was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in a post on social media platform X.
Tesla has rolled out a minor update to its Robotaxi service that will likely make the driverless ride-hailing system notably better and more convenient for consumers. The update was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in a post on social media platform X.
Robotaxi service updates
The Robotaxi update was observed by users of the driverless ride-hailing service over the weekend. As observed by Tesla enthusiast Owen Sparks, the Austin Robotaxi fleet no longer strictly navigates to the pickup point listed on the app. Instead, the Robotaxis now stop in the exact location of a user’s phone.
Elon Musk confirmed the update, noting in a post on X that the change was an upgrade to the service. It’s a reactively minor update in the grand scheme of things, but it should make the Robotaxi service feel more organic and humanlike.
Driverless taxis
Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin has been receiving good reviews from users since it was launched, with many praising the vehicles for their cautious and humanlike behavior. Some users on social media even noted that Tesla’s Robotaxis feel safer on the road than cars from services like Uber, which are manually driven.
Tesla’s minor updates to its Robotaxi service are expected to make the customer experience of the driverless ride-hailing service more refined. By doing so, Tesla could ease customers into its service, even if only a fraction of ride-hailing users are familiar with fully autonomous cars. With this in mind, even small updates like picking up customers based on their specific phone location will likely go a long way towards making Tesla’s Robotaxis more accepted by the general public.
News
Tesla sells 3 million Model 3 since 2017, one in every 1.5 minutes
This translates to one Model 3 being sold every 1.5 minutes on average for the past eight years.
Tesla has announced that the Model 3 sedan has sold 3 million units since it started customer deliveries in 2017. As per the electric vehicle maker, this translates to one Model 3 being sold every 1.5 minutes on average for the past eight years.
Massive Milestone
Tesla China VP Grace Tao announced the Model 3’s milestone on Weibo, highlighting that the all-electric sedan has been a tried and tested vehicle that has earned accolades throughout its tenure. She also highlighted that in a recent test, Car and Driver gave the Model 3 a perfect score.
“Model 3 has become the choice of more than 3 million car owners worldwide, and has won the global pure electric sedan sales champion for seven consecutive years,” Tao wrote in her Weibo post.
She also invited everyone to try and test drive the Model 3 sedan, so they could experience the vehicle personally. “Everyone is welcome to come to the store to test drive and experience this global car and champion car,” the Tesla executive added.
Tesla’s Mainstream Bet
There was once a time when Tesla’s future relied on the Model 3’s success. When the Model 3 was unveiled, Tesla was still gaining its footing as a premium automaker that produces the Model S and Model X. The Model 3 was the company’s first mass-market car, and it was Tesla’s first foray into serious mass production. At the time, it was no exaggeration to state that Tesla’s survival depended on the Model 3.
The Model 3’s runaway success was a victory not just for Tesla but for the overall electric vehicle sector as a whole. Because the Model 3 was simply a great car, electric or otherwise, it was able to prove that there is serious demand for reasonably-priced mass market EVs. It was also able to pave the way for the Model Y, Tesla’s mass market all-electric crossover that ultimately became the world’s best-selling car in 2023 and 2024.
Tesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT
Tesla rolls out update to Robotaxi service that makes pickups so much better
Tesla sells 3 million Model 3 since 2017, one in every 1.5 minutes
-
Elon Musk4 days agoWaymo responds to Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion in Austin with bold statement
-
News4 days agoTesla exec hints at useful and potentially killer Model Y L feature
-
Elon Musk5 days agoElon Musk reveals SpaceX’s target for Starship’s 10th launch
-
Elon Musk6 days agoTesla ups Robotaxi fare price to another comical figure with service area expansion
-
News4 days agoTesla’s longer Model Y did not scale back requests for this vehicle type from fans
-
News4 days ago“Worthy of respect:” Six-seat Model Y L acknowledged by Tesla China’s biggest rivals
-
News5 days agoFirst glimpse of Tesla Model Y with six seats and extended wheelbase
-
Elon Musk5 days agoElon Musk confirms Tesla is already rolling out a new feature for in-car Grok