Investor's Corner
The Tesla Model 3 is rocketing past Europe’s best-selling electric cars: analyst
The Tesla Model 3 achieved yet another milestone as it continues its international ramp. Over the first quarter, the electric sedan from Silicon Valley successfully rocketed past other popular electric cars in Western Europe, taking its place at the top of the region’s list of best-selling EVs.
Berlin-based automotive industry analyst Matthias Schmidt noted that Tesla sold 19,482 Model 3 in the first quarter, a significant lead over the previous #1 EV in the region, the ubiquitous Renault Zoe, which sold 11,049 units over the same period. This is particularly impressive for the Model 3, as it was only available in the market since February, and it was more than twice, or (at times) even three times the cost of the best-selling Zoe. The Nissan Leaf, a veteran in the mainstream EV market, bowed down to the Model 3 as well, selling 10,315 in the first quarter.
The Model 3’s competitors in the premium electric vehicle segment were farther off. The Jaguar I-PACE, which recently received the World Car of the Year award, was 7th place in Europe’s sales, selling 3,012 units in Q1. The Audi e-tron, also a much-hyped vehicle that was, at one time, considered as a potential “Tesla Killer” by skeptics, sold a rather humble 2,526 units in the first quarter, according to the Berlin-based analyst’s data.
In a statement to Forbes, the auto analyst noted that the Model 3’s competition from Europe might be deliberately holding back their sales due to the European Union’s (EU) carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations, which are set to become tighter next year. According to Schmidt, automakers might be aiming to grow their electric car fleets in 2021, in order to bring down their average emissions and avoid fines. Thus, Tesla has all the opportunity it needs to push the Model 3 today, since its all-electric fleet is in no danger from the EU’s tightening emissions rules.
“I expect the Model 3 to finish the year as the top-selling electric car model in Europe helped along by the fact that other manufacturers are reducing supply of their electric models to 2020, with plenty of creative excuses, in order to lower their fleet average CO2 emissions – when it counts – to achieve the next round of EU targets being introduced in 2020 covering 95% of their total fleet and 100% in the following year. Tesla is the only manufacturer that doesn’t have an issue meeting fleet average CO2 emissions and effectively has an open goal up to the end of this year,” the analyst said.
The Tesla Model 3 is proving to be a disruptive vehicle in every region it has been deployed to so far. With Model 3 deliveries focused on North America last year, the electric sedan became the best-selling luxury vehicle in the United States. The Model 3 made its presence known as it made its way into Europe as well. Norway, for one, reported that nearly 60% of all vehicles sold in the country in March were all-electric. More than 18,000 cars were registered in the country during the month, and over 10,000 were all-electric. From this number, 5,822 were Tesla Model S, Model 3, and Model X, which means that one in every three vehicles sold in Norway in March was a Tesla. The Model 3 also made a strong impact in Switzerland, where the all-electric car became the country’s best-selling car at the end of Q1, electric or otherwise.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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