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SpaceX’s crewed Dragon launch debut likely to slip into 2020 as NASA pursues “realistic” dates

SpaceX's first flightworthy Crew Dragon spacecraft rolls out to Pad 39A atop Falcon 9 B1051 on Feb 28, ready for its inaugural trip to low Earth orbit. (SpaceX)

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In a recent blog post, NASA made it clear that changes happening to leadership within the agency – specifically within the Human Exploration and Operations Directorate – are impacting the timelines to return astronauts to the International Space Station(ISS) from US soil. Agency conflicts are just the latest of several setbacks that have impacted the schedule of SpaceX’s crewed Crew Dragon launch debut.

Initially, the SpaceX Demo-2 mission set to carry NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the ISS was slated to occur in the summer of 2019. That demonstration flight has since dropped off of the NASA launches and landings schedule, at least through October. SpaceX is now targeting a Demo-2 launch no earlier than December 2019 but an array of critical milestones must be completed to achieve that goal and both SpaceX and NASA have been keen to express that a crewed Crew Dragon launch in 2019 is a huge stretch.

NASA astronauts Bob Behnken (left) and Doug Hurley (right), are assigned to fly on Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 test flight and will thus become the first humans to fly in a SpaceX spacecraft. (NASA)

According to the recent blog post, “NASA Administrator (Jim Bridenstine) has directed all programs in the Human Exploration and Operations Directorate to reexamine flight dates once new leadership is in place to deliver realistic schedule plans.” It is very likely that these new schedule plans will push the Demo-2 launch target into 2020.

Another roadblock that affects the timeline is the fact that SpaceX has yet to conduct an in-flight abort (IFA) test of the Crew Dragon capsule, meant to demonstrate the ability of the capsule’s SuperDraco thruster abort system to safely return crewmembers back to Earth in the event of an in-flight failure. SpaceX’s IFA has been delayed by multiple months after a catastrophic anomaly during an attempted April 2019 static fire test of the abort system resulted in the complete loss of the Crew Dragon capsule (C201), originally assigned to support the IFA. Although the capsule was destroyed, valuable lessons were learned about the pressurization and propulsion systems of Crew Dragon, particular “the flammability of the check valve’s titanium internal components” according to a July 15th statement released by SpaceX.

SpaceX’s first spaceworthy Crew Dragon capsule seen prior to its first Falcon 9-integrated static fire and a post-recovery test fire three months later. (SpaceX)

As a result of the loss of C201, the in-flight abort test must now use the Crew Dragon capsule (C205) originally intended for the Demo-2 to transport Behnken and Hurley to the ISS. The findings from the anomaly investigation identified changes to the SuperDraco thruster abort system that would need to be made to all capsules currently in production prior to any future flights. SpaceX states that “thorough testing and analysis of these mitigations has already begun in close coordination with NASA, and will be completed well in advance of future flights.”

Pending SpaceX’s modification of Dragon 2 hardware and NASA’s approval, a new launch date for the in-flight abort test could be announced as early as August. According to SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk, Falcon 9 Block 5 booster B1048.3 – the second booster to successfully complete three launches and landings – will likely support Crew Dragon’s in-flight abort test, although there have been indications from NASASpaceflight.com that B1046.3 is also a candidate.

Step by step

Following a successful in-flight abort test and recovery of the Crew Dragon capsule, a joint flight readiness review will be conducted by SpaceX, NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Directorate (HEOD), the Commercial Crew Program (CCP), and the International Space Station Program to settle on a launch date for Demo-2. This meeting will ensure that all parties are well-versed in the procedures required to support crewed spaceflight missions from US soil after an almost decade-long hiatus.

Another anticipated safety procedure that is assumed to be tested prior to the designation of a crewed flight date is a full rehearsal of emergency escape procedures at Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A), located at Kennedy Space Center, Florida. A joint version of this test was recently completed by NASA, Boeing, and United Launch Alliance in anticipation of crewed flights launching from Space Launch Complex 41 on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. As an escape system has not been necessary at LC-39A since the retirement of the Shuttle program, SpaceX and NASA may participate in a similar demonstration utilizing a recently installed zip-line egress system on the Fixed Service Structure of LC-39A.

Newly installed egress zip lines are observed leading away from the redesigned Fixed Service Structure during Apollo 11 50th Anniversary Celebrations at Pad 39A. (NASA)

Although there is some time remaining in the year for SpaceX and NASA to meet all pre-flight objectives, it seems more likely that a crewed SpaceX demonstration mission to the ISS will occur sometime in 2020. As NASA said “we are testing, learning and incorporating changes to improve the design and operation of these next-generation human space transportation systems. As a result, our providers have improved the safety of these systems, and the effect of these changes have impacted schedules.”

Finally, according to recent reports from a handful of Russian media outlets, Crew Dragon’s inaugural crewed launch is believed to be scheduled for absolutely no earlier than (NET) mid-December 2019, although all signs point to that date being purely for planning purposes. In short, Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission is all but guaranteed to slip into 2020, but those delays will (hopefully) result in a significantly safer and more reliable spacecraft.

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SpaceX set to launch Axiom’s mission for diabetes research on the ISS

Axiom’s Ax-4 will test CGMs & insulin stability in microgravity—potentially reshaping diabetes care for Earth & future astronauts.

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(Credit: SpaceX)

Axiom Space’s Ax-4 mission is set to launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. Ax-4 will advance diabetes research in microgravity, marking a milestone for astronaut health.

Axiom Space’s fourth crewed mission is scheduled to launch with SpaceX on May 29 from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The Ax-4 mission will carry a diverse crew and a record-breaking scientific payload to the International Space Station (ISS).

The Ax-4 crew is led by Axiom’s Peggy Whitson and includes Shubhanshu Shukla from India, Sławosz Uznański from the European Space Agency, and Tibor Kapu from Hungary. The mission represents firsts for India, Hungary, and Poland, with Uznański being Poland’s first astronaut in over 40 years.

Ax-4 will conduct nearly 60 science investigations from 31 countries during its two-week ISS stay. A key focus is the “Suite Ride” initiative, a collaboration with Burjeel Holdings to study diabetes management in microgravity.

“The effort marks a significant milestone in the long-term goal of supporting future astronauts with insulin-dependent diabetes (IDDM), a condition historically deemed disqualifying for spaceflight,” Axiom noted. The mission will test Continuous Glucose Monitors (CGMs) and insulin stability to assess their performance in space.

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Axiom explained that testing the behavior of CGMs and insulin delivery technologies in microgravity and observing circadian rhythm disruption could help diabetes experts understand how CGMs and insulin pens can improve diabetes monitoring and care in remote or underserved areas on Earth. The research could benefit diabetes management in isolated regions like oil rigs or rural areas.

The mission’s findings on insulin exposure and CGM performance could pave the way for astronauts with diabetes to safely participate in spaceflight. As Axiom and SpaceX push boundaries, Ax-4’s diabetes research underscores the potential for space-based innovations to transform healthcare on Earth and beyond.

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EU considers SES to augment Starlink services

The EU considers funding SES to support Starlink. With MEO satellites already serving NATO, SES could be key in Europe’s space autonomy push.

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(Credit: SES)

European satellite company SES is negotiating with the European Union (EU) and other governments to complement SpaceX’s Starlink, as Europe seeks home-grown space-based communication solutions. The talks aim to bolster regional resilience amid growing concerns over reliance on foreign providers.

In March, the European Commission contacted SES and France’s Eutelsat to assess their potential role if American-based Starlink access for Ukraine was disrupted. The European Commission proposed funding EU-based satellite operators to support Kyiv. Ukraine is considering alternatives to Starlink over concerns about Elon Musk’s reliability.

Arthur De Liedekerke of Rasmussen Global warned, “Elon Musk is, in fact, the guardian of Ukraine’s connectivity on the battlefield. And that’s a strategic vulnerability.” However, SpaceX’s Starlink constellation is leagues ahead of any competition in the EU.

“Now the discussions are much more strategic in nature. They’re much more mid-term, long-term. And what we’re seeing is all of the European governments are serious about increasing their defense spending. There are alternatives, not to completely replace Starlink, that’s not possible, but to augment and complement Starlink,” SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh told Reuters.

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SES operates about 70 satellites, including over 20 medium Earth orbit (MEO) units at 8,000 km. The company provides high-speed internet for government, military, and underserved areas. It plans to expand its MEO fleet to 100, enhancing secure communications for NATO and the Pentagon.

“The most significant demand (for us) is European nations investing in space, much more than what they did before,” Al-Saleh said.

Competition from Starlink, Amazon’s Kuiper, and China’s SpaceSail, with their extensive low-Earth orbit constellations, underscores Europe’s push for independence.

“It is not right to say they just want to avoid Starlink or the Chinese. They want to avoid being dependent on one or two providers. They want to have flexibility,” Al-Saleh noted.

SES’s discussions reflect Europe’s strategic shift toward diversified satellite networks, balancing reliance on Starlink with regional capabilities. As governments ramp up defense spending, SES aims to play a pivotal role in complementing global providers, ensuring robust connectivity for military and civilian needs across the continent.

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Amazon launches Kuiper satellites; Can it rival Starlink?

With 27 satellites in orbit, Amazon kicks off its $10B plan to deliver global broadband. Can Bezos’ Kuiper take on Musk’s Starlink?

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(Credit: Amazon)

Amazon’s Project Kuiper launched its first 27 satellites on Monday, marking the start of a $10 billion effort that could compete with SpaceX’s Starlink with a global broadband internet network.

Amazon’s Kuiper satellites launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida. Project Kuiper’s recent launch is the initial step toward deploying Amazon’s 3,236 satellites for low-Earth orbit connectivity. Amazon’s satellite launch was initially set for April 9 but was delayed due to bad weather.  

Now that the Kuiper satellites have been launched, Amazon is expected to publicly confirm contact with the satellites from its mission operations center in Redmond, Washington. The company aims to start offering Kuiper services to customers later this year. Project Kuiper was unveiled in 2019 and targets consumers, businesses, and governments who need reliable internet service, similar to Starlink.

Amazon has a deadline from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to deploy 1,618 satellites by mid-2026. Analysts suggest the company may require an extension to its Kuiper satellite deployment deadline due to the project’s year-long delay from its planned 2024 start.

United Launch Alliance could conduct up to five more Kuiper missions this year, according to ULA CEO Tory Bruno. Amazon noted in a 2020 FCC filing that Kuiper services could begin with 578 satellites, initially covering northern and southern regions.

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Kuiper’s launch pits Amazon against SpaceX’s Starlink and telecom giants like AT&T and T-Mobile, with a focus on underserved rural areas.

“There’s an insatiable demand for the internet,” Amazon Executive Chairman Jeff Bezos told Reuters in January. “There’s room for lots of winners there. I predict Starlink will continue to be successful, and I predict Kuiper will be successful as well.”

Global interest in satellite alternatives is rising. Ukraine is exploring Starlink alternatives with the European Union (EU), driven by concerns over Elon Musk. Germany’s military, Bundeswehr, also plans its own constellation to ensure independent communications. However, like Amazon’s Kuiper Project, EU options lag behind Starlink.

Amazon’s consumer expertise and cloud computing infrastructure give Kuiper a competitive edge despite Starlink’s market lead. As Kuiper ramps up launches, its success could reshape broadband access while challenging SpaceX’s dominance in the satellite internet race.

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