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SpaceX's next rocket launch on track to break a 20-month-old booster reusability record

Falcon 9 B1056 became first SpaceX booster to successfully retract all of its landing legs last year. Now, the booster might be about to snag its second record. (Teslarati)

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Scheduled as early as next week, SpaceX’s next rocket launch could see the company break a 20-month-old record that is closely intertwined with the reusability of its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters.

Unsurprisingly, that record – if broken – will tag along on one of up to two dozen Starlink satellite launches SpaceX has planned for 2020. The fourth launch of upgraded Starlink v1.0 satellites and fifth dedicated launch overall, SpaceX’s next Starlink mission – deemed Starlink V1 L4 – is currently set to lift off no earlier than (NET) 10:46 am EST (15:46 UTC) on February 15th. As usual, the mission’s Falcon 9 booster will attempt to land aboard drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY), while SpaceX recovery ships Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief may attempt to catch both Falcon payload fairing halves for the third time ever.

According to Next Spaceflight, SpaceX has assigned thrice-flown Falcon 9 booster B1056 to the Starlink launch, potentially making it the fourth SpaceX rocket to complete four separate launches. However, while SpaceX’s fourth fourth-flight milestone is significant, B1056 is – barring delays – also set to break a record that could be even more important for rocket reusability.

Starlink-1 will mark SpaceX's first attempted drone ship landing in more than five months.
Falcon 9 B1056 approaches drone ship OCISLY after Cargo Dragon’s May 4th, 2019 CRS-17 launch and the booster’s flight debut. (SpaceX)

SpaceX’s 10th finished Falcon 9 Block 5 booster, B1056 completed a flawless launch and landing debut on May 4th, 2019, sending Cargo Dragon on its way to orbit for CRS-17, the spacecraft’s 17th International Space Station (ISS) resupply mission. Instead of a more normal return-to-launch-site (RTLS) recovery at SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral-based Landing Zone, SpaceX opted to land the booster on drone ship OCISLY.

B1056’s May 2019 launch debut sent Cargo Dragon on its 17th space station resupply mission. (Teslarati)

It’s believed that SpaceX and NASA made that decision out of an abundance of caution after an attempted LZ recovery following the Falcon 9 B1050’s CRS-16 Cargo Dragon launch saw the booster lose control and crash-land in the Atlantic Ocean less than a mile off the coast.

Regardless, SpaceX’s subsequent CRS-17 Cargo Dragon launch went exactly as planned and Falcon 9 B1056 landed smoothly aboard drone ship OCISLY. Less than two days after returning to Port Canaveral, B1056 even became the first SpaceX booster to have its landing legs retracted – a small but significant step along the path to true airplane-like reusability. 82 days later, B1056 successfully completed its second launch, sending another Cargo Dragon its CRS-18 resupply mission before landing at LZ-1. The booster completed its third mission a bit less than five months later, placing the 6800 kg (15,000 lb) Kacific-1 communications satellite into geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) on December 16th, 2019.

Falcon 9 B1056.2 landed at SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral Landing Zone-1 on July 25th, 2019 after the booster’s second successful launch – Cargo Dragon’s CRS-18 mission. (SpaceX)
Finally, Falcon 9 B1056 completed its third orbital launch in seven months on December 16th, 2019, carrying a communications satellite to geostationary transfer orbit. (Richard Angle)

Now, SpaceX wants to launch B1056 for the fourth time as early as February 15th. Close observers will note that that would imply just 61 days between B1056’s Kacific-1 and Starlink V1 L4 launches, a feat that would make it SpaceX’s fastest ‘booster turnaround’ ever. Currently, that record stands at 71 days and was actually achieved just a month after SpaceX debuted Falcon 9’s reusability-focused Block 5 upgrade. However, that record turnaround was actually achieved by the B1045, SpaceX’s last Falcon 9 Block 4 booster.

Surprisingly, the closest SpaceX’s upgraded Block 5 rockets have gotten to beating B1045’s 71-day record was when the company turned around Falcon Heavy side boosters B1052 and B1053 in just 74 days before completing the giant rocket’s third orbital launch since February 2018. Now, barring calamities worthy of a ten-day delay, it looks likely that Falcon 9 booster B1056 will beat out the current record-holder by up to ten days (~15%).

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According to a SpaceX engineer’s January 2020 presentation, SpaceX is currently capable of landing, refurbishing, and relaunching Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters in about a month (~30 days). With Falcon 9 B1056’s Starlink V1 L4 launch, SpaceX will hopefully be taking its biggest step in 20 months towards the goal of reusing Falcon boosters in a matter of days.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla hints it could see ‘a few more vehicles’ released soon

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

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Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm hinted the company could see “a few more vehicles” coming out and being released soon, although there is no indication of what could be on the way based on her comments.

However, Tesla has hinted toward several potential releases in the coming years, as other executives, including Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, have talked briefly about what could be on the way.

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

It was a vague and almost cryptic sentence, as, in all honesty, it was not completely clear whether she was talking about recent releases that are just making their way to market, like the Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” or new vehicles altogether.

Nevertheless, it’s worth dissecting.

Tesla “Standard” Models

On October 7, Tesla launched the Standard Model 3 and Model Y, stripped-down versions of their now “Premium” siblings. The Standard trims lack premium features like leather seats, a rear touchscreen, and a glass roof, among other features.

Tesla begins deliveries of its affordable Model Y Standard

These cars are just starting to be delivered for the first time, so it is possible that Denholm was referring to these cars.

Potential Model 2 Hint?

There has always been a looming vehicle model that many Tesla fans and owners have been intrigued by: the Model 2.

This car was hinted at being the $25,000 model that Tesla was rumored to be developing, and many thought that was the vehicle that would be released earlier this month, not the Standard Model 3 and Model Y.

Instead, the Model 2 could be something that would enable Tesla to reach an entirely new consumer base, including those who are not able to swing the payment for the company’s more premium offerings.

It seems Tesla will have to launch some sort of extremely affordable model in the future, and with the Cybercab being slotted at that rough price point, it would not be out of the question for it to be in the realm of possibility for future releases.

It’s worth noting, however, that it is probably unlikely this will happen. Tesla is so deadset focused on autonomy, it seems Cybercab would take extreme precedence over the unconfirmed “Model 2.”

Cybertruck-inspired SUV

Tesla fans have been begging the company to develop a full-size SUV that would compete with the Ford Expedition or Chevrolet Tahoe, but the company has not given any indication that this would be something it would build.

Nevertheless, there was a very subtle hint in a recent promotional clip that showed a Cyber SUV mock-up placed strategically next to a clay model of a Model 3:

Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design

The Model X is simply not what people want when it comes to an SUV, as it does not have the seating capacity and cargo space that many need with a full-sized SUV.

This issue, in particular, has been one that has been extremely relevant to the company’s future lineup as consumers have shown they would be interested in a Tesla vehicle that fit this description.

Additionally, von Holzhausen said in September that a Cyber SUV or a smaller electric pickup with a more traditional design is “definitely things we’ve considered…We’re working on so many innovative and fun things.”

Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck

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Investor's Corner

Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.

The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.

They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.

Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.

Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.

Ives said in a note on October 2:

“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”

Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.

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Elon Musk

Tesla preps for a harsh potential reality if Musk comp vote doesn’t go to plan

A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.

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tesla cybertruck elon musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils futuristic Cybertruck in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Teslarati)

Tesla could be forced to look for a new CEO in the coming months, as a crucial November 6 Shareholder Meeting vote will determine whether Elon Musk will stick around.

A major vote is coming up at the 2025 Tesla Shareholder Meeting, as investors will determine whether Musk should be given a new compensation plan that would award him up to $1 trillion and more than one-fourth of the total voting power within the company.

Tesla board chair reiterates widely unmentioned point of Musk comp plan

A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.

“My fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have at Tesla is if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be ousted at some point in the future? That’s my biggest concern,” Musk said at last week’s Earnings Call. “That’s what it comes down to in a nutshell. I don’t feel comfortable wielding that robot army if I don’t have at least a strong influence.”

Tesla Board of Directors Head Robyn Denholm has been on somewhat of a PR tour over the past few days, answering questions about the compensation plan, which is among the biggest issues currently for the company.

Denholm told Bloomberg yesterday that Tesla investors need to be prepared for Musk to abandon ship if the package is not approved, which brings on a new question: Who would take over the CEO role?

That is a question Denholm also answered yesterday, bringing forth the conclusion that Tesla would not look for an outside hire if Musk were to leave the company. Instead, it would promote someone internally.

The way it was reported by Bloomberg and Reuters seems to make it seem as if Tesla is preparing for the worst, as it states the company “is looking at internal CEO candidates,” not preparing to do so.

Of the executives at Tesla who immediately come to mind as ideal candidates for a potential takeover should Musk leave, Tesla China President Tom Zhu and Head of AI Ashok Elluswamy both come to mind. Zhu has monumental executive experience already, as he was appointed to the role of Senior VP of Automotive back in December 2022.

He then returned to China in 2024.

It seems Tesla wants to align its future, with or without Musk, on the same path that it is currently on, and internal candidates might have a better idea of what that looks like and truly means.

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