Investor's Corner
Elon Musk unlocks 2nd mega-bonus milestone after Tesla soars to $159 billion
Tesla stock (Nasdaq: TSLA) rose yet again to new heights following a meteoric $100 per share surge at the beginning of this week and closing at $887 at the end of the trading day on Tuesday. The new record sets Tesla’s market capitalization at $159 billion, thereby taking Tesla CEO Elon Musk one step closer to the second tranche in his massive multi-billion payout package passed in 2018.
If Musk is able to maintain a $150 billion average market capitalization for all trading days in the applicable trailing six calendar month period or 30 calendar day period, he will have cleared the second market capitalization milestone in his shareholder-approved payment plan. He must also meet certain operational targets to unlock the second tranche of twelve. Musk passed the first market value milestone earlier this month when Tesla broke the $100 billion barrier. Each time Musk unlocks one of the 12 tranches in his 10-year payment plan, he moves another step closer to unlocking 20 million stock options.
The Tesla chief does not have a salary. Instead, he is on a 10-year performance package that includes stock options that vest only if he succeeds in meeting certain market capitalization and operational milestones. It’s a high-risk plan but it’s designed to ensure Musk executes. It’s also bound to ring in massive rewards for the electric vehicle titan, since he could stand to gain Tesla stocks with a potential worth of $55 billion. At the time shareholders approved the payment plan in 2018, the package was worth $2.6 billion.
Musk’s performance package is patterned closely to a similar 5-year payment plan approved for him in 2012. The new package consists of 12 tranches, with each tranche requiring Musk to meet a market capitalization and an operational milestone. For each tranche, Musk has the option to vest in stocks that correspond to 1% of Tesla’s total outstanding shares at the time the plan was approved.
The first tranche is unlocked when Tesla hits $100 billion in market capitalization and achieves a separate operational goal. Each succeeding tranche must see Tesla adding another $50 billion to its market value along with an operational target. The ultimate goal is to hit a total of $650 billion in market capitalization in 10 years, which will put Tesla somewhere around the league of Apple and Google, which are valued at $1.4 trillion and $996 billion respectively.
Tesla is currently valued past $150 billion, which puts it way ahead of the Big Three car companies in the US. Its current market value is greater than General Motors ($49 billion), Ford ($36 billion), and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles ($18 billion) combined. If Tesla continues to see more of its financial gains, it may not take long before it overtakes Toyota, which is currently valued at $229 billion, as the most valuable car company in the world.
The latest rise comes after another huge surge in stock prices after Tesla partner Panasonic reported profits for the first quarter due to its partnership with Giga Nevada. The Japanese battery maker announced that Tesla ramping up production of its electric vehicles has allowed Panasonic to push down costs and erase losses. Tesla stock rose by more than 20% and ended the day at $780 following Panasonic’s earnings report.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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