Investor's Corner
Tesla has its heart set on Texas for upcoming Cybertruck Terafactory
Tesla will likely select Austin, Texas as the location for its next Cybertruck Gigafactory, but that doesn’t mean they’ll turn down offers from other regions that are vying for their attention, including Tulsa, Oklahoma.
First reported by Electrek, and later confirmed by Teslarati with multiple sources, Texas is the forerunner to become home to the company’s next US factory.
The Elon Musk-led electric carmaker has been scouting for land in the outskirts of Austin and in nearby Taylor, roughly 30 miles northeast of the city, since earlier this year. While there have been no property sale records that link back to Tesla or an entity related to the company, sources tell Teslarati that the company is considering the acquisition of several large parcels of land near the industrial zones in Taylor.
Indicators that Tesla was considering Texas as the site for its next US-based Gigafactory grew stronger in February when CEO Elon Musk tweeted a poll that teased the question, “Giga Texas?”
Musk would later confirm, in March, the company’s desire for a Cybertruck Gigafactory that will be located closer to the east coast than California.
And last week, the company held talks with politicians in the Lone Star State, as confirmed by Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
“It’s true,” Abbott said over Twitter. “Texas is a perfect fit for Tesla.”
“I’ve had the opportunity to talk to Elon Musk, and he’s genuinely interested in Texas and genuinely frustrated with California. We’ve just got to wait and see how things play out,” the Texas Governor said in an interview with a local television station.
Other cities in Texas, like Fort Worth and Houston, have also welcomed Tesla by making suggestions to bring car manufacturing into their region. Houston stated that Musk could consolidate Tesla and SpaceX operations in its city, according to Mayor Sylvester Turner.
“As we continue our industrial evolution, I invite you to play a leading role in our story. As the only market that can immediately meet the production needs of Tesla and SpaceX, Houston provides a single solution for your operations,” Turner wrote. “Houston offers a broad innovative ecosystem in which industries coverage to solve the world’s greatest challenges in energy, manufacturing, logistics, and space.”
.@elonmusk Houston offers the #CompleteSolution to consolidate @Tesla and @SpaceX operations in one region. Join a city of innovators working to make the world better—just like you. #youbELONginHOU #HOUxTESLA
Read more here https://t.co/292AUyjW7Q pic.twitter.com/GhUZTPGvLs
— Houston Mayor's Office (@houmayor) May 15, 2020
Tesla’s next Gigafactory in the Central US will be geared toward the mass production of its upcoming Cybertruck, and the production of its Model Y crossover for the East Coast market.
While all indicators point to Austin, Texas as being the site for the company’s Cybertruck Gigafactory, a source tells Teslarati that the company is also considering another central U.S. location that’s 450 miles north of Austin: Tusla, Oklahoma.
Recently, State Representative Ryan Martinez and Governor Kevin Stitt invited Tesla to come to the Sooner State.
“Oklahoma is a wonderful place to do business. We’ve got a low tax base, a low cost of living, great incentives and services, and plenty of space to build a manufacturing headquarters and house all of your people,” Martinez said.
Texas appears to be the favorite in the race to become home to Tesla’s next US factory, however, the largely rural areas of Tulsa is also being considered as a region for its manufacturing facility. By having Tulsa in the conversation, along with other states that continue to court the company, Tesla can only benefit through increased leverage in its negotiations for local incentives.
With economic activity taking a massive blow in the face of the ever-changing pandemic, local governments need the economic boom that a Tesla Gigafactory can otherwise spark for the region.
And with Musk at the helm, who’s no stranger to walking the cashflow tightrope and striking at a good deal when it presents itself, rest assured that there’s going to be plenty of FOMO among state politicians before Tesla ultimately picks Texas.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Tesla price target boost from its biggest bear is 95% below its current level
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