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SpaceX backup Starship reaches full height after nosecone installation

SpaceX has stacked Starship SN8's backup - Starship SN9 - to its full height just days before the former rocket's risky launch debut. (NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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SpaceX has installed another Starship’s nosecone, all but completing the second full-size prototype a matter of days before the first fully-assembled Starship’s risky launch debut.

Over the last two months, SpaceX has effectively put Starship number 8 (SN8) through an almost nonstop series of tests, completing at least four separate cryogenic proof tests, four Raptor engine static fires, and much more. The company’s South Texas team have also dodged an array of technical bugs; installed, plumbed, and wired what amounts to ~40% of Starship (the nose section) while fully exposed to the coastal elements; and even narrowly avoided a potentially catastrophic failure.

In spite of the many hurdles thrown up and delays resultant, CEO Elon Musk announced earlier this week that Starship SN8 is scheduled to attempt its 15-kilometer (~50,000 ft) launch debut as early as Monday, November 30th. Musk, however, does not see success as the most probable outcome.

SpaceX has stacked Starship SN8’s backup – Starship SN9 – to its full height just days before the former rocket’s risky launch debut. The two main parts of SN9’s nosecone are pictured before assembly on November 20th. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Why, then, push to launch Starship SN8 when, in Musk’s own words, the probability of success is as low as “33%”? As previously discussed many times in the history of Teslarati’s BFR and Starship coverage, SpaceX’s attitude towards technology development is (unfortunately) relatively unique in the aerospace industry. While once a backbone of major parts of NASA’s Apollo Program moonshot, modern aerospace companies simply do not take risks, instead choosing a systems engineering methodology and waterfall-style development approach, attempting to understand and design out every single problem to ensure success on the first try.

The result: extremely predictable, conservative solutions that take huge sums of money and time to field but yield excellent reliability and all but guarantee moderate success. SpaceX, on the other hand, borrows from early US and German rocket groups and, more recently, software companies to end up with a development approach that prioritizes efficiency, speed, and extensive testing, forever pushing the envelope and thus continually improving whatever is built.

In the early stages of any program, the results of that approach can look extremely unusual and rudimentary without context (i.e. Starhopper, above), but building and testing a minimum viable product or prototype is a very intentional foundation. Particularly at the start, those minimal prototypes are extremely cheap and almost singularly focused on narrowing a vast range of design options to something more palatable. As those prototypes rapidly teach their builders what the right and wrong questions and design decisions are, more focused and refined prototypes are simultaneously built and tested.

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Done well, the agile approach is often quite similar to evolution, where prototype failures inform necessary design changes and killing off dead-end strategies, designs, and assumptions before they can be built upon. In many cases, compared to cautious waterfall-style development, it will even produce results that are both better, cheaper, and faster to realize. SpaceX’s Starship program is perhaps the most visible example in history, made all the more interesting and controversial by the fact that it’s still somewhere in between its early, chaotic development phase and a clear path to a viable product.

On the build side of things, SpaceX has created a truly incredible ad hoc factory from next to nothing, succeeding to the point that the company is now arguably testing and pushing the envelope too slowly. As of November 2020, no fewer than eight full-size Starships and the first Super Heavy booster prototype are visibly under construction. Most recently, Starship SN9 was stacked to its full height, kicking off nosecone installation while still at the build site (unlike SN8). SN10’s completed tank section is likely ready to begin flap installation within the next few days, while Starship SN11 is perhaps a week or two behind that. Additionally, large tank sections of Starships SN12, SN13, SN14, SN15, and (most likely) SN16 are already completed and have all been spotted in the last few weeks.

Some ~90% of the above work was likely started after Starship SN8 first left the factory and rolled to the launch pad on September 26th. In many regards, SN8 has been the first to reach multiple major milestones, largely explaining the relatively plodding pace of its test program compared to SN4, SN5, and SN6.

SpaceX build technicians and engineers began installing Starship SN9’s nose section on November 24th and will likely be done by the end of the month. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Ultimately, SN9’s imminent completion – effectively a superior, more refined copy of SN8 – means that Starship SN8’s utility to SpaceX is rapidly deteriorating. The company would almost assuredly never skip an opportunity to learn, meaning that there’s no plausible future in which SN8 testing doesn’t continue, but that doesn’t mean that SpaceX can’t turn its risk tolerance to 11. In essence, accept a 67% (or higher) chance of Starship SN8’s violent destruction but learn as much as possible in the process. As long as good data is gathered, SN8’s launch debut will be a success for Starship whether the rocket lands in one or several pieces.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

Anyone will be able to request a Tesla Robotaxi in September, Elon Musk said this morning.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has confirmed that the company’s Robotaxi platform is opening to the public, and he even gave a timeline for when anyone will be able to access one for a ride.

Tesla’s Robotaxi platform launched to a small group on June 22 in Austin, Texas. The company has continued to expand the number of riders and its geofence over the past month and a half.

Tesla officially launches Robotaxi service with no driver

Additionally, it launched rides in the Bay Area of California, but it differs slightly, as the Texas Robotaxi platform does not utilize a Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat. In California, the monitor sits in the driver’s seat.

As the geofence, service areas, and testing populations expand, Tesla fans are awaiting their elusive emails that enable their ability to use the Robotaxi platform. It now seems that the email will come soon, as Musk said Tesla will open up public access to Robotaxi next month:

Tesla has been prioritizing safety over anything else with the launch of the Robotaxi platform, which is why it has been slow to push invitations to new riders. It is confident in the abilities of the platform and its Full Self-Driving suite, which has been proven with data.

However, even a single accident could set Tesla back years in terms of its development of self-driving cars. It is not a risk it is willing to take.

Musk said during the recent Q2 Earnings Call:

“We need to make sure it works when the vehicles are fully under our control. It’s kind of one step at a time here. We don’t want to jump the gun. As I said, we’re being paranoid about safety. But I guess next year is I’d say confidently next year. I’m not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla, Inc. fleet.”

As the platform will expand in Austin and the Bay Area for anyone, Tesla still continues to reiterate that Robotaxi will be available for everyone sometime next year, as Musk said in the quote above.

Things will continue to improve over time, and Tesla will likely expand its geofence in both regions in the coming weeks. It has already done that in Austin twice, with about a doubling in size occurring both times.

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Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

Tesla is urging customers to take delivery of their new EV by September 30 in order to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla is continuing to warn consumers of a huge, time-sensitive change that is coming soon, as the end of the EV tax credit is less than two months away.

The EV tax credit has offered $7,500 off new EVs and $4,000 off used EVs for certain individuals who qualify due to income. For years, it has been a great incentive for consumers, and it has improved further as car companies were able to apply the credit at the point of sale starting in 2023.

Tesla is ready with a perfect counter to the end of US EV tax credits

However, with the Trump Administration, it always seemed as if the EV tax credit was in jeopardy. Earlier this year, the White House officially announced that it would do away with it completely.

On September 30, the tax credit will be abolished. In order to utilize it, customers will have to take delivery of their vehicle by that date. Orders placed before September 30 without delivery by that day will not be able to utilize the credit.

Tesla is truly pushing this point incredibly hard: the sooner an order gets in, the more likely you are to take delivery of the car by September 30.

The end of the EV tax credit is something that has been looming on the minds of electric carmakers, consumers, and investors.

The $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle truly puts many of the cars in a much more affordable price range. Without it, the least expensive Tesla model will be the Model 3 Rear-Wheel-Drive, which starts at $42,490.

That price comes down to $34,990 with the tax credit, and brings the monthly payment down about $130, depending on how much money is put down.

Despite the change, CEO Elon Musk does not believe it will impact Tesla negatively. In fact, he has been in favor of getting rid of the EV tax credit for several years, believing it will actually work to Tesla’s advantage.

Perhaps the most interesting thing that will come of this is how all EV makers will be impacted by the loss of credit. Musk believes Tesla will come out as the big winner here, especially as it plans to roll out new affordable models sometime this year.

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Tesla FSD V14 gets tentative release date

The update will feature a 10X higher parameter count, among other improvements.

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Credit: Whole Mars Catalog/YouTube

Tesla is not releasing Unsupervised FSD to regular customers yet, but the company seems to be preparing something special for its FSD users nonetheless. 

This was, at least, according to Elon Musk in a recent post on X.

Tesla FSD V14

Tesla’s FSD program has been deemed by Elon Musk as one of the key factors that would determine the company’s long term success. Over the past months, however, Tesla has mostly been focusing on the rollout and ramp of its Robotaxi program in Austin and the Bay Area. Tesla’s Robotaxi service uses Unsupervised FSD, which is not yet released to customers.

However, in a post on X, Musk stated that Tesla is preparing its next big update for its consumer-grade FSD system—V14. Musk did not provide a lot of details about FSD V14’s capabilities, but the CEO did state that the update will feature a 10X higher parameter count, among other improvements.

“The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less,” Musk wrote in his post.

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Tesla Unsupervised FSD Rollout

During the second quarter earnings call, Tesla executives were asked for a timeline on the rollout of Unsupervised FSD to consumer vehicles. In his reply, Musk stated that he believes Unsupervised FSD will be available for consumers in certain geographies. He did explain that Tesla will be extra careful with the system’s release. 

“We are getting there. I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies. We are just being very careful about it. This is not something we should rush,” Musk said, adding that “I am confident that by this year, within a number of cities in the US, it will be available to end users.

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