Investor's Corner
Tesla’s Elon Musk calls for an end to TSLA’s end-of-quarter vehicle delivery blitzes
Over the years, it has practically become a tradition for Tesla to engage in a massive “end-of-quarter push” that involves the company working double time in an effort to deliver as many vehicles to as many customers as possible. This, at least according to CEO Elon Musk, must change, as Tesla must come up with a way to reduce the size of its delivery wave in the final weeks of a quarter. By doing so, the company could save on costs, and employees would be saved from burnout.
Musk’s statements about Tesla’s end-of-quarter vehicle delivery blitzes were shared in an email, a screenshot of which was recently shared on Twitter. As per the message, Musk noted that the current quarter is all about minimizing the cost of vehicle deliveries. Thus, it would make sense if the company could avoid spending heavily on expedite fees, overtime, and temporary contractors, just to have everyone burned out at the beginning of the next quarter. The final line of the email is quite notable, as Tesla’s end-of-quarter pushes have partly been done to meet the market’s quarterly expectations.
Here's the full text of @elonmusk's email sent to Tesla employees last night.
Elon making moves to decrease size of end-of-quarter delivery wave. Less attention given to quarterly earnings now that Tesla has been killing it every quarter.
via @DriveTesla1 pic.twitter.com/FpEnqDRqCl
— Dave Lee (@heydave7) November 27, 2021
The following is Musk’s email:
Per my email several weeks ago, our focus this quarter should be on minimizing *cost* of deliveries, rather than spending heavily on expedite fees, overtime, and temporary contractors just so that cars arrive in Q4.
What has happened historically is that we sprint like crazy at end of quarter to maximize deliveries, but then deliveries drop massively in the first few weeks of the quarter. In effect, looked at over a six month period, we won’t have delivered any extra cars, but we would have spent a lot of extra money and burned ourselves out to accelerate deliveries in the last two weeks of each quarter!
We will still have quite a big wave of deliveries in the last few weeks of December, as we don’t yet have high volume production in Europe or Texas, which means a lot of cars on boats from China to Europe and on trucks/rail from California to the east coast arriving late in the quarter, but this is nonetheless the right time to start reducing the size of the wave in favor of a steadier and more efficient pace of deliveries. The right principle is: take the most efficient action, as though we were not publicly traded and the notion of “end of quarter” didn’t exist.
Thanks,
Elon
#Denver @tesla dominated deliveries this week. Unconfirmed reports of 200+ cars delivered both Friday, Saturday alone. Along side Tesla were 30 volunteers providing 40+ hours helping deliver and teach new owners, including a new #Model3 for @kimbal. Props to @elonmusk and team! pic.twitter.com/bmIaCZQNdg
— Sean Mitchell (@seanmmitchell) September 30, 2018
The Tesla CEO’s thesis on his message makes quite a lot of sense, especially considering the lengths that the company and its employees have gone through during the final weeks of every quarter. It was not rare in the past to have practically the entire workforce of Tesla working on vehicle deliveries, and in areas such as the United States and China, even regular owners have stepped in to help the company deliver as many electric cars as possible.
In Q3 2018, for example, Tesla volunteers across the United States helped with the company’s end-of-quarter push, aiding new owners by helping them download the Tesla mobile app and answering questions about their new vehicles. In Denver alone, some Tesla owners volunteered and provided over 40 hours of their personal time to help out. The same was true for China, as experienced owners also made it a point to aid newcomers with their electric cars’ features.
But while community-driven initiatives are admirable, Tesla has reached a point and volume where the company must focus intently on efficiency. Relying on end-of-quarter blitzes with millions of vehicles to be delivered would likely not be sustainable, after all, As Musk noted, this would involve the creation of a steadier and more efficient pace of vehicle deliveries. Such should be more plausible in the coming months, especially as Tesla starts operations in Gigafactory Berlin and Giga Texas.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
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When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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