News
SpaceX sends two drone ships to sea for back-to-back Starlink, astronaut launches
Update: SpaceX has rolled out Crew-4’s Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon in anticipation of prelaunch testing. However, due to poor weather in landing regions, NASA and SpaceX have also delayed the private Axiom-1 crew’s return to Earth a second time.
Without the undocking time confirmed, it’s likely that Crew-4 will be pushed back to April 24th or 25th at the earliest. Starlink 4-14, nonetheless, appears to remain on track for an April 21st launch attempt.
SpaceX has sent both of its East Coast drone ships to sea to support an upcoming pair of back-to-back Falcon 9 launches and landings.
The ‘autonomous spaceport drone ship ‘ (ASDS) Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) left first, exiting Florida’s Port Canaveral with the help of a tugboat on April 16th. On April 18th, drone ship A Shortfall of Gravitas (ASOG) followed suit, shadowing JRTI en route to a similar location northeast of Cape Canaveral. Both should arrive at their respective Atlantic Ocean landing zones within a few days.
No earlier than (NET) 11:16 am EDT (15:16 UTC), Thursday, April 21st, SpaceX is scheduled to launch a well-worn Falcon 9 booster carrying a new upper stage and the latest batch of ~50 Starlink V1.5 satellites. Less than two full days later, a different Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch a new Crew Dragon spacecraft and four NASA and ESA astronauts on their way to the International Space Station.
Starlink 4-14 – the 14th mission carrying satellites destined for the fourth of five Starlink orbital ‘shells’ – will be SpaceX’s 9th Starlink launch and 15th launch overall in 2022, averaging just shy of one launch per week. The mission should also leave SpaceX with more than 2100 working Starlink satellites in orbit – likely not far off from half of all operational satellites in Earth orbit.
SpaceX appears to have assigned Falcon 9 booster B1061 to the launch after the rocket – already integrated with a new upper stage – was spotted on the way to Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) Launch Complex 40 (LC-40) on April 18th. Starlink 4-14 will be B1060’s 12th launch since June 30th, 2020, tying Falcon 9 B1051’s booster reuse record but accomplishing the feat almost 15 months faster. It’s unlikely that B1051 will ever retake its crown from B1060. Based on past performance, B1060 could easily fly another 4-6 times before the end of 2022 if it survives Starlink 4-14.
As few as 42 hours later, Falcon 9 booster B1067 could lift off for the fourth time with a new Crew Dragon capsule – C212 or “Freedom” – and a team of four professional astronauts as part of NASA’s Crew-4 mission at 5:26 am EDT (09:26 UTC), April 23rd. Crew-4 will be SpaceX’s seventh astronaut launch since May 2020 and its fourth operational crew transport mission for NASA. A few days after Crew Dragon C212 docks with the International Space Station (ISS), four Crew-3 astronauts will board a different Crew Dragon and return to Earth, handing off the US segment to Crew-4.
However, two Crew Dragons are already docked to the ISS, taking up both available International Docking Adapter (IDA) ports. Before Crew-4 can launch, Axiom-1 – SpaceX’s first all-private astronaut mission to the space station – must undock and return to Earth. On April 18th, that undocking was delayed about 15 hours by poor weather to 10 pm EDT, April 19th, pushing splashdown and recovery off the coast of Florida to mid-afternoon, April 20th. NASA and SpaceX will then have about 60 hours to analyze any data gathered from the completed Axiom-1 mission and determine whether or not to proceed with Crew-4 on April 23rd.
Investor's Corner
Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook
Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.
Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.
Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.
While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.
The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.
Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings
Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.
They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.
Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.
Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.
Ives said in a note on October 2:
“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”
Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.
Elon Musk
Tesla preps for a harsh potential reality if Musk comp vote doesn’t go to plan
A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.
Tesla could be forced to look for a new CEO in the coming months, as a crucial November 6 Shareholder Meeting vote will determine whether Elon Musk will stick around.
A major vote is coming up at the 2025 Tesla Shareholder Meeting, as investors will determine whether Musk should be given a new compensation plan that would award him up to $1 trillion and more than one-fourth of the total voting power within the company.
Tesla board chair reiterates widely unmentioned point of Musk comp plan
A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.
“My fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have at Tesla is if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be ousted at some point in the future? That’s my biggest concern,” Musk said at last week’s Earnings Call. “That’s what it comes down to in a nutshell. I don’t feel comfortable wielding that robot army if I don’t have at least a strong influence.”
Tesla Board of Directors Head Robyn Denholm has been on somewhat of a PR tour over the past few days, answering questions about the compensation plan, which is among the biggest issues currently for the company.
Denholm told Bloomberg yesterday that Tesla investors need to be prepared for Musk to abandon ship if the package is not approved, which brings on a new question: Who would take over the CEO role?
That is a question Denholm also answered yesterday, bringing forth the conclusion that Tesla would not look for an outside hire if Musk were to leave the company. Instead, it would promote someone internally.
The way it was reported by Bloomberg and Reuters seems to make it seem as if Tesla is preparing for the worst, as it states the company “is looking at internal CEO candidates,” not preparing to do so.
Of the executives at Tesla who immediately come to mind as ideal candidates for a potential takeover should Musk leave, Tesla China President Tom Zhu and Head of AI Ashok Elluswamy both come to mind. Zhu has monumental executive experience already, as he was appointed to the role of Senior VP of Automotive back in December 2022.
He then returned to China in 2024.
It seems Tesla wants to align its future, with or without Musk, on the same path that it is currently on, and internal candidates might have a better idea of what that looks like and truly means.
News
Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) is nearing approval in a new country
As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.
It appears that Tesla FSD (Supervised) is heading to a new country soon, at least based on comments from Israel’s Transport and Road Safety Minister Miri Regev.
As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.
Israeli drivers are pushing for FSD rollout
While Tesla’s FSD is already operational in markets like the U.S., Canada, and Australia, Israeli owners have long been unable to use the feature due to regulatory barriers. Despite its premium price tag, however, numerous Tesla owners in Israel have noted that the technology’s safety benefits, at least when approved for real-world use in the country, justify its cost.
It was then no surprise that nearly 1,000 Tesla owners in Israel have already petitioned the government to greenlight FSD’s domestic release in Israel. In a post on X, Regev seemed to confirm that FSD is indeed coming to Israel. “I’ve received the many referrals from Tesla drivers in Israel! Tesla drivers? Soon you won’t need to hold the steering wheel,” she wrote in her post.
FSD’s regulatory support in Israel
Regev stated that her Ministry views promoting innovative technologies as essential to improving both road safety and smart mobility. A working group led by Moshe Ben-Zaken, Director General of the Ministry of Transportation has reportedly been tasked to finalize the approval process, coordinating with regulatory and safety agencies to ensure compliance with international standards.
In a comment to Geektime, Israel’s Ministry of Transportation and Road Safety noted that Regev is indeed supporting the release of FSD in the country. “Minister Regev sees great importance in promoting innovative technologies, and in particular in the entry of advanced driving systems (FSD) into the Israeli market, as part of the ministry’s policy to encourage innovation, safety, and smart transportation,” the Ministry stated.
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