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Investor's Corner

Bankers ponder Tesla margin loans to replace Musk’s high-interest Twitter debt: report

Steve Jurvetson from Los Altos, USA, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

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Reports have emerged suggesting that Elon Musk’s bankers are considering the idea of replacing some of the high-interest debt the Tesla CEO took on for his Twitter acquisition with new margin loans that are backed by Tesla shares. 

Margin loan commitments backed by Tesla stock worth about $12.5 billion were part of Musk’s initial financing package for Twitter. These were later replaced by additional equity commitments, however, which included investments from several partners.

Citing individuals reportedly familiar with the matter, Bloomberg News noted that the new Tesla margin loans are among several options that Musk’s advisers and his bankers have discussed. The idea is reportedly being pondered as a way to soften the burden of the $13 billion debt that Twitter took on amidst Musk’s $44 billion acquisition of the social media company. 

As per the publication’s sources, the current conversations between the bankers and Musk’s advisers have so far been focused on how to replace the $3 billion in unsecured debt on which Twitter pays an interest rate of 11.75%. This was the maximum the Tesla CEO was guaranteed by the banks when they agreed to finance Musk’s Twitter acquisition earlier this year.

Any new margin loans against Tesla shares would be taken by Musk in his own capacity, despite the fact that the $13 billion in debt the CEO took on to finance his buyout of the social media company is held at the corporate level by Twitter. Despite this, the swap could still be advantageous as a significant portion of Musk’s fortune is tied up in Twitter. The margin loans would also have a lower interest rate than Twitter’s unsecured debt, according to Bloomberg’s sources.

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The talks between Musk’s bankers and advisers are reportedly still in their preliminary stages, so no final decisions have been made yet. Representatives for Elon Musk and his bankers, which include Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., and Barclays Plc, among others, have not issued a comment about the matter as of writing. 

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Investor's Corner

Bank of America raises Tesla PT to $471, citing Robotaxi and Optimus potential

The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.

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Credit: Tesla

Bank of America has raised its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target by 38% to $471, up from $341 per share.

The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.

Robotaxi and Optimus momentum

Bank of America analyst Federico Merendi noted that the firm’s price target increase reflects Tesla’s growing potential in its Robotaxi and Optimus programs, among other factors. BofA’s updated valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model extending through 2040, which shows the Robotaxi platform accounting for 45% of total value. The model also shows Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus contributing 19%, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Energy segment adding 17% and 6% respectively.

“Overall, we find that TSLA’s core automotive business represents around 12% of the total value while robotaxi is 45%, FSD is 17%, Energy Generation & Storage is around 6% and Optimus is 19%,” the Bank of America analyst noted.

Still a Neutral rating

Despite recognizing long-term potential in AI-driven verticals, Merendi’s team maintained a Neutral rating, suggesting that much of the optimism is already priced into Tesla’s valuation. 

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“Our PO revision is driven by a lower cost of equity capital, better Robotaxi progress, and a higher valuation for Optimus to account for the potential entrance into international markets,” the analyst stated.

Interestingly enough, Tesla’s core automotive business, which contributes the lion’s share of the company’s operations today, represents just 12% of total value in BofA’s model.

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Tesla analyst: ‘near zero chance’ Elon Musk’s $1T comp package is rejected

“There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”

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A Tesla analyst says there is “zero chance” that CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package is rejected, a testament to the loyalty and belief many shareholders and investors have in the frontman.

Tesla investors will vote on November 6 at the annual Shareholder Meeting to approve a new compensation package for Musk, revealed by the company’s Board of Directors earlier this month.

The package, if approved, would give Musk the opportunity to earn $1 trillion in stock, an ownership concentration of over 27 percent (a major request of Musk’s), and a solidified future at the company.

The Tesla Community on X, the social media platform Musk bought in 2023, is overwhelmingly in favor of the pay package, though a handful of skeptics remain.

Nevertheless, the big pulls of this vote are held by proxy firms and other large-scale investors. Two of them, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis, said they would be voting against Musk’s proposed compensation plan.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm

Today, the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) said it would vote in favor of Musk’s newly-proposed pay day, making it the first large-scale shareholder to announce it would support the CEO’s pay.

One analyst said that Musk’s payday is inevitable. Gary Black of the Future Fund said today there is a “near-zero chance” that shareholders will allow Musk’s pay package to be rejected:

There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”

He added an alternative perspective from Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who said that he had a better chance of starting for the New York Yankees than the comp package not being approved.

Black’s the Future Fund sold its Tesla holdings earlier this year. He explained that the firm believed the company’s valuation was too disconnected from fundamentals, citing the P/E ratio of 188x and declining earnings estimates.

The firm maintained its $310 price target, and shares were trading at $356.90 that day.

Shares closed at $452.42 today.

The latest predictions from betting platform Kalshi have shown Musk’s comp package has a 94 percent chance of being approved:

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analysts are expecting big things from the stock

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla analysts are expecting big things from the stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) after many firms made price target adjustments following the Q3 Earnings Call.

Last Wednesday, Tesla reported earnings with record revenue but missed EPS estimates.

It blew delivery expectations out of the water with its strongest quarter in company history, but Tesla’s future relies on the development of autonomous vehicles, robotics, and AI, which many bullish firms highlight as major strengths.

The earnings call reiterated those points, along with the belief that Tesla CEO Elon Musk should be rewarded with a newly proposed pay package that would enable him to gain $1 trillion in wealth if he comes through on a lengthy list of performance tranches.

Nine Wall Street firms made adjustments to their outlook on Tesla shares in the form of price target increases since last Wednesday’s call, all of which are indications of big expectations for the stock moving forward.

Here are the nine firms that made moves:

  • Truist – $280 to $406, reiterated Hold rating
  • Roth MKM – $395 to $404, reiterated Buy rating
  • Cantor Fitzgerald – $355 to $510, reiterated Overweight rating
  • Deutsche Bank – $435 to $440, reiterated Buy rating
  • Mizhuo – $450 to $485, reiterated Outperform rating
  • New Street Research – $465 to $520, reiterated Buy rating
  • Evercore ISI – $235 to $300, reiterated In Line rating
  • Freedom Capital Markets – $338 to $406, upgraded to Hold rating
  • China Renaissance – $349 to $380, reiterated Hold rating

The boosts in price target are largely due to Tesla’s future projects, as Roth MKM, Cantor Fitzgerald, Mizuho, New Street Research, and Evercore ISI all explicitly mention Tesla’s autonomy, robotics, and AI potential as the main factors for its price target boosts.

Cantor Fitzgerald raises Tesla PT To $510, citing Cybercab, Semi, and AI momentum

It is no surprise that many firms are adjusting their outlook on Tesla shares considerably in an effort to prepare for the company’s transition to even more of a tech company than a car company.

The issue with many analysts is that they treat the company’s vehicle deliveries as the main indicator of value.

However, Tesla has a robust energy division, which was a major contributor to the company’s strong margins and gross profit in Q3, as well as its prowess in robotics and AI.

Additionally, the company is seen as a key player in the autonomy field, especially after launching driverless rides on a Robotaxi platform in Austin and expanding a similar program in the Bay Area.

Tesla shares were up over 5 percent at 12:18 p.m. on the East Coast.

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