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Tesla is poised to overtake Toyota as California’s top carmaker

Credit: Tesla Inc.

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There’s a reason why the Tesla Model 3 is fondly dubbed the “California Camry” in the Golden State. Data from the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) reveals that the Model 3, Tesla’s second-best-selling vehicle, surpassed the Toyota Camry in sales last year. The Toyota Camry was California’s best-selling car in 2021.

The same trend can be observed in the light truck category. The Tesla Model Y once more became California’s top light truck in terms of new vehicle registrations last year. This allowed the Model Y to beat the Toyota RAV4 for the second year running. 

CNCDA data showed that the Tesla Model 3 saw 78,934 registrations in California in 2022, beating The Toyota Camry with its 55,967 registrations. The Tesla Model Y saw 87,257 registrations last year, while the Toyota RAV4 saw 59,794 registrations. 

Tesla’s performance against Toyota is impressive. The Japanese carmaker is still a very strong force in California, commanding 17% of the state’s vehicle registrations last year with 289,304 units. Tesla held 11% of California’s auto segment last year with 186,711 vehicle registrations. 

A look at the sales trend in California would show that Toyota is seeing a decline as Tesla is growing its market share. As stated in an Automotive News report, the market share of Toyota and its luxury brand Lexus has declined from 2021 to 2022. Tesla followed the opposite trend, with the company almost doubling its market share in the same period. 

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This same trend was highlighted in a recent study from S&P Global Mobility, which noted that Toyota and Honda are losing buyers to companies like Tesla. Data from Experian suggests that there is a very good reason for this: Toyota and Honda do not have a strong EV lineup

“While vehicle pricing was a major concern in 2022, sales of pure EVs increased by over 50 percent from 2021. California is clearly doing its part to increase EV sales,” California’s dealers association noted. 

Loren McDonald, CEO of the analysis firm EVAdoption, told the publication that Tesla buyers today are the same consumers who bought Toyotas in the past. “Tesla buyers today are the historical Honda and Toyota buyers of the past. They’re switching over to Model 3s and Model Ys,” McDonald said, highlighting that Tesla could overtake Toyota in a year or two based on its current momentum. 

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s comfort level taking risks makes the stock a ‘must own,’ firm says

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had coverage initiated on it by a new firm this week, and analysts said that the company’s comfort level with taking risks makes it a “must own” for investors.

Melius Research and analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of the stock this week with a $520 price target and a “Buy” rating. The price target is about 20 percent higher than the current trading price as shares closed at $435 on Wednesday, up 1.38 percent on the day.

Wertheimer said in the note to investors that introduced their opinion on Tesla shares that the company has a lot going for it, including a prowess in AI, domination in its automotive division, and an incredible expertise in manufacturing and supply chain.

He wrote:

“We see Tesla shares as a must-own. The disruptive force of AI will wreck multitrillion-dollar industries, starting with auto. Under Musk’s leadership, the company is comfortable taking risks. It has manufacturing scale and supply chain expertise that robotics startups possess more by proxy. It can rapidly improve and scale autonomy in driving, the first major manifestation of AI in the physical world.”

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However, there were some drawbacks to the stock, according to Wertheimer, including its valuation, which he believes is “challenging” given its fundamentals. He said the $1 trillion market cap that the company represented was “guesswork,” and not necessarily something that could be outlined on paper.

This has been discussed by other analysts in the past, too. Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld recently called Tesla the “biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen,” by stating:

“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Additionally, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman said:

“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”

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Some analysts covering Tesla have said they believe the stock is traded on narrative and not necessarily fundamentals.

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Tesla launches ‘Mad Max’ Full Self-Driving Speed Profile, its fastest yet

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Credit: Teslarati

Tesla launched its fastest Full Self-Driving Speed Profile with the v14.1.2 Software Update on Wednesday, as “Mad Max” mode has overtaken “Hurry” as the most spirited travel option on FSD.

On Wednesday evening, Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, teased that the v14.1.2 Software Update would be released to those drivers in the Early Access Program (EAP). He said it was a “much-awaited feature.”

Tesla just teased something crazy with the next Full Self-Driving update

Many people, myself included, believed it would be the introduction of “Banish,” which would be a perfect complement to the Actually Smart Summon (ASS) suite, as it would find a parking spot and park itself after dropping you off at the front door of your destination.

However, Elluswamy’s post on X finished with two emojis: one a race car, the other being smoke behind the car.

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On Wednesday night, we received the v14.1.2 software update to the new Model Y, which revealed that “Mad Max” mode was the new addition:

The release notes state that:

“Introduced new speed profile MAD MAX, which comes with higher speeds and more frequent lane changes than Hurry.”

It is pretty interesting that Tesla would introduce yet another speed profile that is even faster and more aggressive than “Hurry.” Personally, I’ve found Hurry to be realistic in terms of other drivers and their aggressiveness, speed of travel, and overall lane change behavior, especially on interstates.

Mad Max mode will be an interesting adjustment.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk first talked about Mad Max mode back in 2018 in posts on X, first mentioning the feature with the Tesla Semi:

Musk then teased Mad Max mode in 2019 with an early Autopilot update, stating that it would be an ideal option for aggressive traffic seen in places like Los Angeles. There was formerly a mode of the same name back in the late 2010s:

Now that it’s here, we’ll be testing it very soon and giving you a good idea of what to expect when it releases to others in the coming weeks.

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Tesla just teased something crazy with the next Full Self-Driving update

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East | X

Update 9:56 p.m. ET: We got it…

Tesla launches ‘Mad Max’ Full Self-Driving Speed Profile, its fastest yet

Tesla just teased something crazy with the next Full Self-Driving update, which will be released to Early Access Program (EAP) members today.

Tesla just recently released the v14 Full Self-Driving update, and it followed up just a few days later with v14.1.1.

The subsequent release helped refine a handful of things, especially an issue with stuttering at intersections and overall indecisiveness, but it was more of a smoothing over of the initial v14.1 Full Self-Driving release.

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However, on Wednesday evening, Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said that the company would be releasing v14.1.2 to EAP members today, and that it would “debut a much-awaited feature.”

He followed that up with a racecar emoji and a smoke emoji, potentially hinting toward something speed-related. However, it could mean something totally different.

Some suggested it was potentially a new Speed Profile that could rank above the “Hurry” option, but that seems unnecessary. As far as other features that have been teased, one that definitely comes to mind is the “Banish” feature that was recently teased by CEO Elon Musk.

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Banish is essentially the finishing touch to Tesla’s Actually Smart Summon (ASS), which launched earlier this year.

While ASS will bring your car to your location using the Tesla app on your phone, Banish does just the opposite by dropping you off at the door of your destination and finding a parking spot on its own.

Elon Musk teases ‘Banish’ feature to pair perfectly with Summon

This was recently teased by Musk yet again, as he said earlier this month that Full Self-Driving would be capable of it very soon.

Based on what we’ve seen out of v14.1 and v14.1.1, there is some potential that Banish could be released and could be the feature that Elluswamy is hinting toward, although there is no direct evidence of that.

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Luckily, I was able to get into the EAP, so as the feature is released and the Release Notes are available, we’ll be able to report on exactly what feature is on the way.

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