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Elon Musk estimates Tesla fleet will reach 10 million in a few years

Credit: @greggertruck/X

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Over the weekend, Tesla CEO Elon Musk conducted his highly-anticipated FSD V12 demonstration. The event was livestreamed on X, where it proceeded to garner 11.1 million views as of writing. Musk’s comments following the demo hinted at his estimate for the size of Tesla’s overall fleet in the coming years. 

The drive was surprisingly uneventful, partly due to the fact that FSD V12 was already behaving much like a human driver. As Musk highlighted during the drive, FSD V12 was smooth, and it reacted to situations on the road, such as the presence of construction areas and speed bumps, without any issues. Musk only had to intervene once at a busy intersection as FSD V12 was about to run a red light. 

Musk’s demonstration received quite a lot of attention on social media, with critics of the system dismissing it as proof that FSD was unsafe and supporters praising the improvements of the system. Among those who saw the importance of the demonstration was tech evangelist Robert Scoble, who described the drive as the first “first public demo of a robot that learned to move around the world by watching only videos.”

In a response to the tech evangelist’s comments, Musk stated that it is remarkable to see that the inference compute power needed for the system used in the FSD V12 demo was only about 100W on Tesla’s AI computer. The CEO noted that such a “puny amount of power is enough to achieve superhuman driving.” Musk did highlight, however, that attaining superhuman driving with AI requires billions of dollars per year and a massive fleet of vehicles. 

With this in mind, Musk noted that Tesla currently has over 4 million cars on the road that is capable of training AI. That’s a substantial number, and it is very impressive considering how young the company is in the automotive sector. Nevertheless, Musk also estimated that Tesla’s fleet would be substantially larger in the future, as it would reach “roughly 10 million” in a few years. 

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Statistic: Number of Tesla vehicles delivered worldwide from 1st quarter 2016 to 2nd quarter 2023 (in 1,000 units) | Statista
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Granted, Musk has a reputation for being overly optimistic with his estimated timeframes, but it should be noted that 10 million is quite realistic. As noted by Statista, after all, Tesla’s overall sales have passed the 4.4 million mark, so if the electric vehicle maker continues to grow at its pace, a total fleet size of 10 million vehicles may indeed be within reach. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads-up. 

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla sends clear message to Waymo with latest Austin Robotaxi move

It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has sent a clear message to Waymo with its latest move to its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas.

Tesla and Waymo are the two true leaders in autonomous ride-hailing to an extent. Tesla has what many believe is a lot of potential due to its prowess with the Supervised Full Self-Driving suite. It is also operating a driverless Robotaxi service in Austin with a “Safety Monitor” that sits in the passenger’s seat.

Tesla explains why Robotaxis now have safety monitors in the driver’s seat

The two companies have been competing heavily in the market since they both launched driverless ride-hailing services in Austin this year: Waymo’s in March and Tesla’s in June.

One of the main drivers in the competition between the two is service area size, or the geofence in which the cars will operate without a driver. In August, the two were tied with a service area of about 90 square miles (233.099 sq. km).

Tesla then expanded to about 170 square miles (440.298 sq. km) on August 26, dwarfing Waymo’s service area and expanding to freeways. Tesla’s freeway operation of the Robotaxi suite requires the Safety Monitor to be in the driver’s seat for safety reasons.

On Tuesday evening, Tesla made another move that sent a clear message to Waymo, as it expanded once again, this time to 243 square miles (629.367 sq. km).

This is according to Robotracker:

It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”

Yesterday, it expanded that service to the San Jose Mineta International Airport, something it has been working on for several months.

Waymo has its own set of distinct advantages over Tesla as well, as it operates in more cities and states than the EV maker. Waymo currently has its autonomous vehicle services in Phoenix, Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta, Georgia.

Tesla plans to have half of the U.S. population with access to the Robotaxi platform by the end of the year.

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Tesla exec reveals shock development with Cybercab

“If we have to have a steering wheel, it can have a steering wheel and pedals.”

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(Credit: Teslarati)

Tesla is planning to launch the Cybercab in the second quarter of next year, and it is designed to be fully autonomous, so much so that the company is planning to build it without a steering wheel or pedals.

However, a Tesla executive said today that the company could ditch that idea altogether in what would be a major shift from the plans the company, and especially its CEO Elon Musk, have announced for the Cybercab.

Earlier today, Robyn Denholm, the company’s Chair for the Board of Directors, revealed that Tesla would potentially switch up its plans for the Cybercab based on potential regulatory requirements.

Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East | X

Currently, even autonomous vehicles that operate for companies like Tesla and Waymo are required to have steering wheels and pedals. From a regulatory perspective, this could halt the plans Tesla has for Cybercab.

Denholm said in an interview with Bloomberg:

“If we have to have a steering wheel, it can have a steering wheel and pedals.”

Interestingly, Musk and Tesla have not veered away from the idea that the vehicle will be without these operational must-haves.

Since the vehicle was revealed last October at the We, Robot event in Los Angeles, Tesla has maintained that the car would be built without a steering wheel or pedals, and would equip two seats, which is what is statistically most popular in ride-sharing, as the vast majority of rides have only one or two passengers.

Musk doubled down on the plans for Cybercab as recently as last week, when he said:

“That’s really a vehicle that’s optimized for full autonomy. It, in fact, does not have a steering wheel or pedals and is really an enduring optimization on minimizing cost per mile for fully considered cost per mile of operation. For our other vehicles, they still have a little bit of the horse carriage thing going on where, obviously, if you’ve got steering wheels and pedals and you’re designing a car that people might want to go very direct past acceleration and tight cornering, like high-performance cars, then you’re going to design a different car than one that is optimized for a comfortable ride and doesn’t expect to go past sort of 85 or 90 miles an hour.”

Cybercab is fully conceptualized as a vehicle that has zero need for pedals or a steering wheel because it is aimed toward being fully reliant on a Level 5 autonomous platform.

Tesla is ramping its hiring for Cybercab vehicle manufacturing roles

Regulators could get in the way of this, however, and although the car could drive itself and be a great solution for ride-hailing, it might need to have these controls to hit the road in the future.

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SpaceX opens up free Starlink service for those impacted by Hurricane Melissa

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(Credit: Starlink | X)

SpaceX is opening up its internet service, Starlink, to those impacted by Hurricane Melissa, as it made landfall in Jamaica and the Bahamas as a Category 5 storm.

Hurricane Melissa is expected to reach wind speeds of over 165 MPH over the next few days as it extends out into the Atlantic Ocean by Thursday and Friday.

Citizens in Jamaica and the Bahamas have been preparing for the storm for the past week, getting necessary goods together and preparing for the massive storm to arrive. It finally did yesterday, and the first images and video of the storm are showing that it could destroy many parts of both countries.

Starlink is now being opened up for free until the end of November for those impacted by the storm in Jamaica and the Bahamas, SpaceX announced today:

It is a move similar to the one the company made last year as Hurricane Helene made its way through the United States, destroying homes and property across the East Coast. SpaceX offered free service for those impacted by the destruction caused by the storm.

The free Starlink service was available until the end of 2024.

Elon Musk’s companies have also made similar moves to help out those who are impacted by natural disasters. Tesla has offered Free Supercharging in the past, most notably during the California wildfires.

Tesla and SpaceX’s LA fire relief efforts: Cybertrucks, free Starlink and more

One major advantage of Starlink is that it is available for use in situations like this one, where power might be required to operate things like a modem and router.

Internet access is a crucial part of survival in these situations, especially as it can be the last leg some stand on to get in touch with emergency services or loved ones.

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