Investor's Corner
Tesla increases Q2 production by 20% but falls short of deliveries
Tesla issued its Q2 production and delivery numbers, indicating that the company produced 20 percent more cars this quarter than the previous however fell short in delivering the vehicles to customers.
The Silicon Valley based electric car company reported 18,345 vehicles produced in Q2 or roughly just under 2,000 vehicles per week, and delivered 14,370 vehicles though guidance was set at 17,000 vehicles. Tesla attributed the fact that “Tesla Q2 deliveries were lower than anticipated” to having “5,150 customer-ordered vehicles [..] still in transit, a much higher number than the 2,615 vehicles in transit to customers at the end of Q1.”
Tesla added that half it saw a huge production ramp towards the end of Q2 resulting in half of the quarter’s production occurring in the final four weeks. Model S continues to lead in terms of deliveries consisting of 9,745 units delivered versus 4,625 Model X.
Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries Release [Source: Tesla Investor Relations]
As far as total deliveries for the full year 2016, “Tesla expects to produce and deliver about 50,000 vehicles during the second half of 2016”, which means it will not be able to hit the low end of previous guidance of “80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016” as the projected 2016 yearly number for 2016 now stands at 79,000.
Tesla Market Action
During the past week $TSLA stock seems to have safely discarded the major bad news about the Model S driver killed while using Autopilot. While the press was flooded with negative articles about the accident (I counted an average of 2-4 articles per day in the Wall Street Journal and on Bloomberg), and the news ended up being reported 2 days in a row in the national news broadcast of all major networks, Wall Street traders shrugged the bad news off completely. While the stock had a temporary drop to 206 in after hours extended trading on Thursday when the news came up on the wire, $TSLA stock shot back with a vengeance to the $216 level on Friday, giving traders one of the best weeks of the year with a whopping 15% weekly gain.
What will $TSLA stock do when the market reopens on Tuesday after the 4th of July holiday? If we look at the response after the Q1 deliveries were reported on April 4, most news outlets reported that Tesla Missed Its Q1 Delivery Targets. Wall Street traders did not care much then, trading the stock up for 3 sessions to an all time high of $266 after the news. In that case, Tesla had reiterated the 80 to 90 thousand deliveries for the year, which may have softened the bad news of total quarterly deliveries.
This is a quick look to today’s headlines in response to the Q2 delivery numbers.
- The Verge: Tesla falls short of delivery estimates in Q2 despite ramping production
- NBC News: Tesla cranks out 20% more cars in Q2, but struggles to deliver them
- USA Today: Tesla deliveries in Q2 fall short of estimates
- ABC News: Tesla Vehicle Deliveries Slip in Q2
Technical indicators were in a really good spot at market close on Friday: 4-days of positive Heikin Ashi charts, MACD positive, MACD averages “pinching”, indication the possible start of a longer breakout on the upside. But the possible bullish breakout could be stopped by the market reaction to what is effectively a “miss” of guidance for the year, more than the smaller numbers for the quarter.
Will Wall Street traders shrug off the Q2 negative results like they did with Q1?
Source: Wall Street I/O
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Tesla Full Self-Driving lands in a new country, its 7th
Tesla CEO Elon Musk teases insane capabilities of next major FSD update
