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Tesla delivers a whopping 24,500 vehicles in Q3, sets quarterly record

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Tesla reported its production and deliveries for Q3 2016. According to the report, “Tesla delivered approximately 24,500 vehicles in Q3, of which 15,800 were Model S and 8,700 were Model X. This was an increase of just over 70% from last quarter’s deliveries of 14,402. Our Q3 delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct.”

“In addition to Q3 deliveries, about 5,500 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will not be counted as deliveries until Q4. Production rose to 25,185 vehicles in Q3. This was an increase of 37% from Q2 production of 18,345″

One number that will looked at by Wall Street traders and investors on Monday was going to be “guidance” for the rest of the year.  Guidance was good. Tesla stated in the press release that “we expect Q4 deliveries and production to be at or slightly above Q3, despite Q4 being a shorter quarter and the challenge of delivering vehicles in winter weather over holidays. Guidance of 50,000 vehicles for the second half of 2016 is maintained.” This number will make a lot of traders happy.

Elon must be happy, as he immediately retweeted an article from VentureBeat, positive on the reported numbers.

Source: Twitter

Source: Twitter

VentureBeat noted that “to encourage orders for its electric vehicles, Tesla has pulled out practically all the stops to encourage ordering, including offering a 2-year lease on Model S and X vehicles and even producing a new Model S sedan with a larger battery and faster acceleration. This is certainly good news for Tesla, perhaps showing that customers aren’t dissuaded by recent reports of accidents involving Tesla and its self-driving capabilities. ”

Another positive note came out from  Bloomberg that noted in an article titled “Tesla Shipments Top Analysts’ Estimates as Musk Urges Sales Push”, that “the quarter was Tesla’s last chance to show that it can be profitable before it raises money to ramp up production of the new Model 3. The third-quarter deliveries were positive and beat most estimates, said Jeffrey Osborne, an analyst at Cowen & Co., who rates the stock underperform. “We were looking for 20,500 this quarter with an acceleration in 4Q to get to 50,000 for the second half,” Osborne said by e-mail. “We believe bullish investors were in the 22,000 to 23,000 range.”

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With 24,500 vehicles delivered, Tesla beat even the expectations of the most bullish investors.

The Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch was rather positive as well in a note titled “Tesla reports its best-ever quarterly vehicle sales”. The reporter noted that “the results suggest the revelation on June 30 that a Model S was involved in an earlier fatal crash in Florida involving the car’s Autopilot hasn’t affected sales. Federal regulators are investigating the crash, which the company said was the first known fatality involving the company’s semiautonomous feature that can take control of the car in certain driving conditions. Tesla has since begun rolling out software updates to Autopilot that Mr. Musk say would have prevented the crash.”

Trading Action

The stock has languished during the last 10 trading sessions, in what traders call “compression.” It will be interesting to see Monday’s opening as it will be highly influenced by the just reported results, and it may fuel back a positive rally on the stock.

Stock Market Update

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As I predicted, TSLA stock is rallying at the opening on Monday. While the Dow is down over 70 points, TSLA was up was much as $10 or 5%. If the gain is staying into the close, it will be one of the best trading days of the year for TSLA.

Source: Wall Street I/O (wallstreet.io)

Source: Wall Street I/O (wall street.io)

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Investor's Corner

Shareholder group urges Nasdaq probe into Elon Musk’s Tesla 2025 CEO Interim Award

The SOC Investment Group represents pension funds tied to more than two million union members, many of whom hold shares in TSLA.

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Credit: xAI/X

An investment group is urging Nasdaq to investigate Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) over its recent $29 billion equity award for CEO Elon Musk. 

The SOC Investment Group, which represents pension funds tied to more than two million union members—many of whom hold shares in TSLA—sent a letter to the exchange citing “serious concerns” that the package sidestepped shareholder approval and violated compensation rules.

Concerns over Tesla’s 2025 CEO Interim Award

In its August 19 letter to Nasdaq enforcement chief Erik Wittman, SOC alleged that Tesla’s board improperly granted Musk a “2025 CEO Interim Award” under the company’s 2019 Equity Incentive Plan. That plan, the group noted, explicitly excluded Musk when it was approved by shareholders. SOC argued that the new equity grant effectively expanded the plan to cover Musk, a material change that should have required a shareholder vote under Nasdaq rules.

The $29 billion package was designed to replace Musk’s overturned $56 billion award from 2018, which the Delaware Chancery Court struck down, prompting Tesla to file an appeal to the Delaware Supreme Court. The interim award contains restrictions: Musk must remain in a leadership role until August 2027, and vested shares cannot be sold until 2030, as per a Yahoo Finance report.

Even so, critics such as SOC have argued that the plan does not have of performance targets, calling it a “fog-the-mirror” award. This means that “If you’re around and have enough breath left in you to fog the mirror, you get them,” stated Brian Dunn, the director of the Institute for Comprehension Studies at Cornell University.

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SOC’s Tesla concerns beyond Elon Musk

SOC’s concerns extend beyond the mechanics of Musk’s pay. The group has long questioned the independence of Tesla’s board, opposing the reelection of directors such as Kimbal Musk and James Murdoch. It has also urged regulators to review Tesla’s governance practices, including past proposals to shrink the board. 

SOC has also joined initiatives calling for Tesla to adopt comprehensive labor rights policies, including noninterference with worker organizing and compliance with global labor standards. The investment group has also been involved in webinars and resolutions highlighting the risks related to Tesla’s approach to unions, as well as labor issues across several countries.

Tesla has not yet publicly responded to SOC’s latest letter, nor to requests for comment.

The SOC’s letter can be viewed below.

Nasdaq+Letter Tsla Socig Final by Simon Alvarez

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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tesla showroom
Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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