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SpaceX may perfect reusable rockets in 2018: Evolution in the Falcons’ Nest

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2017 has in almost every respect been an unrivaled halcyon year for SpaceX: over the course of its twelves months, SpaceX has returned to flight, begun reusing Falcon 9 boosters, and overall completed 18/18 successful launches and 15/15 first stage recoveries – five of which were commercial reuses of ‘flight-proven’ boosters. It is difficult to fathom how the year could have been more successful, aside from a slight hiccup with fairing manufacturing that may have prevented the launch company from racking up 20 or more missions in 2017.

And yet, despite the flooring and incontrovertible triumphs, I can state with confidence that, barring any serious anomalies, SpaceX’s 2018 docket will utterly eclipse 2017’s varied achievements. This series of articles will act as a sort of preview of SpaceX’s imminent future in 2018, each looking at what the new year may hold for the company’s three most fundamental pursuits: the Falcon rocket family, the Starlink satellite internet initiative, and its ambitions of interplanetary colonization.

Sooty Falcon 9 1035 before its second flight with an also-reused Dragon payload, CRS-13. (Tom Cross/Teslarati)

Falcon finds its wings

While 2015 and 2016 both saw their own hints of potential successes to come, 2017 is the first year that SpaceX managed a truly impressive launch cadence for Falcon 9 without a serious vehicle failure. Every 2017 launch flew on either a Block 3 or Block 4 iteration of Falcon 9 1.2. Esoteric model numbers aside, this simply means that Falcon 9’s design, manufacture, and operation are all maturing rapidly; SpaceX has clearly learned from the CRS-7 and Amos-6 failures and responded accordingly with a more cautious and tempered perspective.

From a historical perspective, it is extraordinarily impressive that Falcon 9 and Cargo Dragon have experienced such a tiny number of failures over their short but active existences. Both Falcon 9 and Dragon have experienced several miscellaneous teething issues and technical difficulties over their ~7 years of launches, but only three anomalies resulted in failures that catastrophically impacted customer payloads: CRS-1, CRS-7, and Amos-6. Thus, out of a total of 46 Falcon 9 launches, approximately 94% have been complete successes. For perspective SpaceX’s first orbital rocket, Falcon 1, experienced total failures during its first three launch attempts, for a success rate of 40%.

SpaceX’s Falcon family of rockets. (Wikipedia)

Barring further flight hardware anomalies in the Falcon family, however, 2018 is likely to be even more of a boon for Falcon 9 (and Falcon Heavy). While Falcon Heavy is set to ring in the new year sometime in January 2018, just a few weeks away, far more significant for SpaceX’s launch business is the debut of the “final” iteration of Falcon 9, dubbed Block 5 or ‘V5,’ likely within the next several months. Block 5 has been heavily modified almost entirely for the sake of more efficient reuse, and will feature titanium grid fins (most recently spotted on Falcon Heavy) and several other changes. Altogether, SpaceX’s public goal is to be able to reuse Falcon 9 Block 5 as many as a dozen times with relative ease, and each booster’s lifespan could potentially be lengthened by a factor of 5-10 with more extensive periodic maintenance.

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This ‘final’ version of Falcon 9 will almost undoubtedly go through its own period of tweaks, changes, and iterative improvements once it debuts and begins to gather flight experience. Nevertheless, it’s plausible that once its minor problems are ironed out, SpaceX will choose to “freeze” the design and begin to aggressively transfer large sections of its engineering and manufacturing base over to the company’s Mars rocket, BFR. Ultimately, the highly reusable Block 5 evolution of Falcon 9 will allow SpaceX to transfer over its customers to reused rockets and thus recoup the cost of reusability R&D far faster than ever before, both by lowering the material cost of launch and enabling a considerably higher frequency of launches.

This crop of Falcon Heavy shows off its side cores, both sporting titanium grid fins that are considerably larger than the original aluminum fins. (SpaceX)

Taken as a whole, the culmination of the Falcon family’s evolution will pave SpaceX’s path to realizing its even wilder ambitions of providing ubiquitous and superior satellite internet and transforming itself into the backbone of crew and cargo transport to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. But that’s a story for another day…

While we wish we could jump forward to the end of 2018 and reflect upon even more incredible SpaceX achievements, you can follow SpaceX’s day by day progress live with our launch photographer Tom Cross on Twitter and Instagram @Teslarati. Significant upcoming events include the ever-secretive launch of Zuma (7:57pm EST, January 4) and the inaugural static fire and launch of the titanic Falcon Heavy (no earlier than Jan. 6 and Jan. 15).

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla adjusts Robotaxi safety monitor strategy in Austin with new service area

The positioning of the driver, as well as the driver’s hands being closer to the steering wheel, is more similar to what Tesla is doing in the Bay Area Robotaxi program than it is to what it has done in Austin.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla has adjusted its Robotaxi safety monitor strategy in Austin after it expanded its service area in the city last week for the third time.

Tesla has been operating its Robotaxi platform in Austin since June 22. The vehicles have been operated without a driver, but Tesla has placed safety monitors in the passenger’s seat as a precaution.

The safety monitors are responsible for performing any necessary interventions and maintaining a safe and comfortable cabin for riders as they experience Tesla’s first venture into the driverless ride-sharing space.

Last week, Tesla expanded its service area in Austin for the third time, expanding it from about 90 square miles to 170 square miles. The expansion included new territory, including the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas, and several freeways.

Tesla Robotaxi geofence expansion enters Plaid Mode and includes a surprise

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The freeway is an area that is uncharted territory for the Tesla Robotaxi program, and this fact alone encouraged Tesla to switch up its safety monitor positioning for the time being.

For now, they will be riding in the driver’s seat when routes require freeway travel:

The positioning of the driver, as well as the driver’s hands being closer to the steering wheel, is more similar to what Tesla is doing in the Bay Area Robotaxi program than it is to what it has done in Austin.

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This is sure to draw criticism from skeptics, but it is simply a step to keep things controlled and safe while the first Robotaxi drives take passengers on the highway with this version of the Full Self-Driving software.

This FSD version differs from the one that customers have in their own vehicles, but CEO Elon Musk has indicated something big is coming soon. FSD v14 is coming to vehicles in the near future, and Musk has said its performance is pretty incredible.

Tesla’s Elon Musk shares optimistic teaser about FSD V14: “Feels sentient”

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Tesla has best month ever in Turkey with drastic spike in sales

Tesla managed to sell 8,730 Model Y vehicles in Turkey, outpacing almost every competitor by a substantial margin. Only one brand sold better than Tesla in August in Turkey, and it was Renault.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla had its best monthly performance ever in Turkey in August, thanks to a drastic spike in sales.

Tesla saw an 86 percent bump in sales of the new Model Y in Turkey in August compared to July, dominating the market.

The performance was one of Tesla’s best in the market, and the company’s sales for the month accounted for half of all EV sales in Turkey for August, as it dominated and led BYD, which was the second-best-selling brand with just 1,639 units sold.

Tesla managed to sell 8,730 Model Y vehicles in Turkey, outpacing almost every competitor by a substantial margin. Only one brand sold better than Tesla in August in Turkey, and it was Renault.

Electric vehicles are, in some ways, more desirable than their gas counterparts in Turkey for several reasons. Most of the reasoning is financial.

First, EVs are subject to a lower Special Consumption Tax in Turkey. EVs can range from 25 percent to up to 170 percent, but this is less than the 70 to 220 percent rate that gas-powered vehicles can face. The tax is dependent on engine size.

Elon Musk courted to build a Tesla factory in Turkey

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Additionally, EVs are exempt from the annual Motor Vehicle Tax for the first ten years, providing consumers with a long-term ownership advantage. There are also credits that can amount to $30,000 in breaks, which makes them more accessible and brings down the cost of ownership.

Let’s not forget the other advantages that are felt regardless of country: cheaper fuel costs, reduced maintenance, and improved performance.

The base Model Y is the only configuration available in Turkey currently.

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Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update, which will utilize the company’s vision-first approach to enable better protection in the event of an accident.

Over the years, Tesla has gained an incredible reputation for prioritizing safety in its vehicles, with crash test ratings at the forefront of its engineers’ minds.

This has led to Tesla gaining numerous five-star safety ratings and awards related to safety. It is not just a statistical thing, either. In the real world, we’ve seen Teslas demonstrate some impressive examples of crash safety.

Everything from that glass roof not caving in when a tree falls on it to a Model Y surviving a drive off a cliff has been recorded.

However, Tesla is always looking to improve safety, and unlike most companies, it does not need a physical hardware update to do so. It can enhance features such as crash response and airbag performance through Over-the-Air software updates, which download automatically to the vehicle.

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In Tesla’s 2025.32 Software Update, the company is rolling out a Frontal Airbag System Enhancement, which aims to use Tesla Vision, the company’s camera-based approach to self-driving, to keep occupants safe.

The release notes state (via NotaTeslaApp):

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash. Building on top of regulatory and industry crash testing, this release enables front airbags to begin to inflate and restrain occupants earlier, in a way that only Tesla’s integrated systems are capable of doing, making your car safer over time.”

The use of cameras to predict a better time to restrain occupants with seatbelts and inflate airbags prior to a collision is a fantastic way to prevent injuries and limit harm done to those in the vehicle.

The feature is currently limited to the Model Y.

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