Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) shows recovery as Musk seemingly confirms positive August sales
Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) are showing some recovery after taking a tumble yesterday amidst Elon Musk’s apparent support of a positive report estimating the sales figures of the Model 3, S, and X in August 2018, as well as an announcement of new orders for the Tesla Semi.
Musk’s Twitter update was posted as a retweet of sales estimates published by electric vehicle-themed website InsideEVs, which posted its monthly US EV sales scorecards for August. The website estimates that Tesla’s entire line of vehicles dominated the country’s electric car sales during the month, with the Model 3 being 1st, the Model S being 2nd, and the Model X being the 3rd best-selling EV in the US.
Tesla 1st, 2nd & 3rd in August sales https://t.co/npDKC9QEpP
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 6, 2018
While InsideEVs‘ scorecards do not include the official August sales figures from Tesla and other vehicles like the Chevy Bolt EV, the publication’s estimates appear to have been approved by Musk in his tweet. This seems to have positively affected investor sentiment, as the company’s shares recovered as much as 2.05% in Thursday’s pre-market.
Tesla might have hit a breakthrough with Model 3 production after the end of Q2 2018, but the company is still only around halfway through its target of ultimately manufacturing 10,000 Model 3 per week. Evercore ISI analysts who visited the Fremont factory last month noted that Tesla would likely be able to ramp to 7,000-8,000 Model 3 per week with minimal CapEx, and with the $35,000 base Model 3 still on the horizon, it appears that Tesla’s electric sedan is just getting started in its disruption of the passenger car market.
Apart from the positive August sales estimates for the Model 3, S, and X, Tesla also received a new set of orders for a vehicle that is still waiting for release. In an update on Thursday, Walmart Inc’s Canadian unit announced that it would be buying an additional 30 units of the Tesla Semi as part of its initiative to launch an emissions-free fleet by 2028. The 20 new orders for the Tesla Semi are set to be added to the 5 trucks Walmart ordered for its US fleet and the first 10 it ordered for its Canadian unit back in November. Walmart Canada noted that it is planning to utilize 20 Tesla Semis to support its fleet base in Mississauga, Ontario. The remaining 20 left for the Canadian fleet will be moved to Surrey, British Columbia.
The Tesla Semi is expected to begin production sometime in 2019, and Tesla is already on full throttle testing the vehicle on America’s roads. The Semi’s hand-built, carbon-fiber prototype has been making the rounds in several states lately, and it even visited some of the companies that have placed reservations for the vehicle, such as UPS, Ruan Transportation Management Systems, and J.B. Hunt.
The Tesla Model 3 is already disrupting the US’ passenger car market. GoodCarBadCar, an auto sales tracking website, ranked the electric sedan as the country’s 5th best-selling passenger car in August, up two places from its rank last July. The Model 3 is also the only electric vehicle that made it to GCBC‘s overall Top 20 best-selling vehicles list for the past month, which includes trucks like the Ford F-150 and SUVs like the Honda CR-V.
In the same way that the Model 3 is disrupting the passenger car segment, the Tesla Semi also has the potential to disrupt the US’ trucking industry. The trucking market is vast, handling the transportation of 71% of food, retail goods, construction supplies, and other cargo delivered every day — and it is still growing. The American Trucking Associations’ American Trucking Trends 2018 report, for one, revealed that the US trucking market generated $700.3 billion in economic activity in 2017, 3.5% more compared to 2016 when the trucking industry generated $676.6 billion. If Tesla can tap into this market with the Semi, the all-electric truck could prove to be a very lucrative vehicle for the company.
As of writing, Tesla shares are up 3.36% at $290.16 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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