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Automakers come to accept that the EV revolution has begun

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9 years ago

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The last several months have been busy in the electric vehicle revolution. Governments have been announcing their phase out plans for petrol vehicles and automakers have committed billions of dollars to electrification programs. At this point automakers are practically falling over each other racing to get out their announcements. How many electric vehicles they’re developing, how much they’re investing, are they going fully electrified, and when.  Suddenly no one wants to be perceived as falling behind in this revolution. And why should they? Nokia and Blackberry can attest to what happens if you do.

In the past, established automakers have been very cautious with electrification, with many simply watching to see how the situation developed. Generally, their investments could be best described as vague or immaterial to their core business of making cars. That’s clearly changed – take a look at the timeline of announcements below.

Taken as a whole these announcements are really quite striking. Most recently it was GM and Ford that released their competing declarations of electrification. GM with twenty new fully electric vehicles by 2023 and Ford quickly following up to say they had a new dedicated team for fully electric vehicles, while reiterating their previously committed $4.5 billion in investments for 13 new electrified vehicle options. Ford followed up the next day to say they were also diverting one third of their investments from combustion vehicle development.

The month prior was filled with even more announcements, including tweets between Elon Musk and Mercedes about the size of the latter’s investments. Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar, Honda, BYD, and Dyson all made significant announcements about their EV programs that month, but it was Volvo’s “fully electrified” announcement that first caught the media’s attention back in July. It was a clever, if somewhat misleading PR move, but it did set important targets for their company and the competition. The fact that Tesla started producing their mass market Model 3 was almost lost amongst all this news. That’s an exaggeration of course, but only a year ago many believed their plans were impossible.

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Government announcements have been another important part of the narrative, with targets that provide direction and impetus to the industry. Based on some of the lobbying it hasn’t been entirely welcome, but that’s to be expected. Anytime an entire country is talking about completely phasing out your current business model, it’s going give an industry pause. In this case there were multiple, with China, the UK, France, India, and several others weighing in with their plans to phase out combustion vehicles.

Looking at these announcements together suggests that a new phase in the electric vehicle revolution has begun. The fundamentals behind this shift are what I will argue here. My proposition is that the combined macro-economic drivers of regulation, competition, and market growth are pushing EVs to the mainstream. Be forewarned, it’s a long post, but analyzing any of these factors in isolation loses the bigger picture. Electric vehicles are coming, of that there can be no doubt.

Regulation, competition, and market growth.

You’ll notice the analysis below centers around plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Today a little more than 60% of new EV sales are pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and the rest are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). PHEV’s are a transitionary technology, which currently offer some benefits that will disappear as battery costs continue to fall and range continues to increase. Note that the analysis doesn’t include hybrids without plugs, they’re old news. Also note that in talking about vehicles and vehicle sales, these are always in reference to passenger vehicles (i.e. no freight trucks). Annual passenger vehicles sales data was taken from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and electric sales information is from the International Energy Agency.

Regulation:

The 2015 Paris climate agreement requires country specific greenhouse gas reductions by 2030 or sooner. As part of the agreement countries must also submit annual reports on their progress. Transport is a key part of each country’s emissions and it’s one that has a solution at hand, hence the plans to phase out combustion vehicles. France and UK announced for bans by 2040, Scotland by 2032, Netherlands 2025, Norway 2025, and India and China in development. There’s some subtlety to each. Norway for example is leaning towards economic levers to achieve their goals in lieu of outright restrictions, while India has said they expect all vehicles to be electric by 2030 without regulation being necessary, though their official policy is expected later this year.

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Personally I tend to agree. I expect we will all be buying electric vehicles long before 2040 largely due to economics, especially with carbon pricing. That said, all of the government announcements are important. They provide both the public and automakers a framework in which to operate, while the more aggressive targets are actually moving the industry forward.

California and nine east coast states have long mandated a portion of sales be zero emission vehicles (ZEVs), administered through a credit system. The system gives partial credit to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and more credits to long range zero emission vehicles (ZEVs).  It’s basically the reason automakers have produced ZEVs in the USA. In quite possibly the biggest announcement of the year China is now doing something similar. They’ve mandated a ‘new energy vehicle’ credit requirement of 10% of sales in 2019 and 12% in 2020.  Since one EV can be responsible for multiple credits it means that less than 12% of all vehicles sold will be required to be zero emission vehicles. For example, if the requirement was met with vehicles like the BMW i3, it would mean 4.6% of all vehicle sales in China would be ZEV in 2020, about 1.4 million that year. For reference there are about 2.5 million PEVs on the planet right now.

China is also looking at establishing a date for complete phase out of petrol vehicles, which has caught California’s attention. California is not eager to lose their leadership position in electric vehicles and is now looking to increase their own targets and establish their own timeline for complete phase out. I believe the quote from their governor was “Why haven’t we done something already?”. It seems that an EV target race has begun and that means mandated growth for the EV market.

source: BMW

Market Growth:

This one has always been a bit of ‘chicken or the egg’ scenario.   Historically demand for electric vehicles was low, which automakers referenced as the reason for their limited offerings. Others argued that there could be no demand when so few options were available, especially when those that did exist had such weird aesthetics (which was an effective way to prevent scavenging from more profitable combustion sales). Tesla flipped this around with their preorders of the Model 3 and showed everyone the latent demand to the tune of nearly 400,000 preorders. Other automakers took notice. BMW even started having widespread video presentations depicting the threat of Tesla to motivate their employees.

If you’ve only heard the rhetoric of how electric vehicles constitute a small fraction of the world’s annual sales, you might have missed something important. Exponential growth. Since 2012 growth of plug-in electric vehicles has been over 40% every year. Cumulatively that means 10x more PEVs will be sold in 2017 than 2012, as shown in the graph below.

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Historical data from the IEA, 2017 estimate from EVvolumes.com

Don’t get me wrong, the existing market share is almost laughably low at 1.1% worldwide (2016 data from the IEA), but over the last three years sales have grown at an average 54.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

To illustrate the effect of exponential growth consider the following example about bacteria in a jar. If the number of bacteria doubles every minute and after 1 hour the jar is full of bacteria, that means at 59 minutes the jar is half-full, at 58 minutes ¼ full, at 57 minutes 1/8 full, etc. At 54 minutes that jar is only 1.6% full and everyone is thinking that bacterial will never fill the jar. It’s simplistic and exaggerated but that’s where we are today, at 54 minutes.

The example shows the power of exponential growth but also the challenge in forecasting it. Over the long term, small changes in annual growth rates can have big impacts. Solar power projections were notoriously underestimated and each year forecasts had to be revised upwards. That’s not to disparage the forecasters, it’s incredibly difficult to do what they do and certainly some caution in forecasting is warranted. But it is worth considering that electric vehicles may be in a similar situation. For example, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) posted an EV outlook report in 2016, estimating that annual sales in 2040 would be 35% of all vehicles sold and the total PEV fleet would be 410 million. This year they revised those projections up, to 54% and 600 million. That’s 200 million more EVs, on a starting estimate of 410 million, after one year of new data. Will the next years’ forecasts also be revised upwards?

Shorter timeframes are usually more accurate, BNEF’s numbers indicate they expect approximately 2.5 million PEVs to be sold in 2020.  That seems reasonable, but it would mean that PEV sales growth slows to 35% annually for the next few years. With more models coming that have better features and lower costs, and with governments now pushing the market with more aggressive targets, it seems unlikely growth will slow.  So as an experiment what happens if the 54.6% growth rate over the last three years continues, to 2020 and 2025?

The impact would be impressive. The graph indicates that over 4 million PEVs would be sold in 2020, for 5% of total vehicle sales. That jumps to 37 million PEVs sold in 2025, nearly 40% of the total vehicle sales predicted. Contrast that with BNEF numbers, of 3% of sales in 2020 and 8% in 2025. Personally I think 8% is a low estimate for 2025, it works out to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25%. Interestingly UBS  increased their 2025 PEV estimate upwards by 50% this year (from 2016) to 14% of total sales – showing that short-term projections can be just as uncertain.

Perhaps 54.6% isn’t feasible, although Tesla has nearly managed it with a 47% growth rate since 2013. They did this while building up their staff, infrastructure, technology, and procedures virtually from scratch all at the same time. It’s also worth considering the history of smartphones. Globally smartphone sales grew at a rate of 46.4% year over year for ten years from 2004 to 2014, growing from sales of 27 million a year to over a billion.  It was even more dramatic in China, where smartphone users accounted for about 5% of mobile subscribers in 2010 but were 70% by 2015 (Statista). That’s in just 5 years.

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Data from www.gartner.com

Granted smartphones are not cars. The average smartphone costs orders or magnitude less and is traded in every two years, while the average car is traded in every 6.5 years (in the USA). A smartphone apparently has an average total lifespan of 4.7 years and a car can last to ~200,000 miles, approximately 15 years of average driving.

But electric cars do offer something cell phones never have. A lower cost. Cell phones provide a wealth of new functionality in our lives, but generally at a premium. Today, electric cars already cost less to operate than combustion vehicles, by 2018 they are expected to reach cost parity on total cost of ownership (UBS report), and by 2025 Bloomberg expects them to cost less upfront than combustion vehicles. That’s battery only electric vehicles (BEVs). Perhaps the changeover is longer than it was for cellphones, but once BEVs have an upfront cost less than petrol, why would anyone buy anything else?

Competition:

More and more manufacturers are entering the electric vehicle field with legitimate programs and their EVs are getting excellent reviews. At the end of 2016 the Chevy Bolt came out and won the North American and Motor Trend car of the year awards. Be prepared to see future EVs dominate the awards. VW already has a new e-Golf, Nissan a new Leaf, BMW an updated i3, Hyundai released their Ionic, and Audi, Porsche, and Jaguar are all coming out with pure EV models in 2018. Then there are the massive “electrification” shifts from the likes of Mercedes, BWM, Volvo, Austin Martin, VW, Ford, GM, and others. All now committing to reshaping their companies and the industry by moving to electric vehicles. There’s also that company Tesla which started making their game changing Model 3. Suddenly there’s a lot of competition and if your company isn’t one of those competing…. what are you doing? Those automakers on the sidelines are starting to look obsolete and it’s a short road from obsolete to ‘out of business’. 

With automakers and governments committing to electrification of vehicles, we are going to see a significant ramp up in the electric vehicle market. More plug-in options are coming out, billions are being invested, and governments are seriously planning the end of combustion vehicles. It really is a paradigm shift.  In large part we have Tesla to thank. If they hadn’t shown the world what was possible, who knows when this would have happened. Certainly the future would be a bit darker.

 

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As an engineer working to improve sustainability and energy use, I have a passion for renewables, research, and data analytics. I'm based out of Toronto Ontario and you can contact me on LinkedIn or Twitter.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.3 rolls out: here’s what’s new

We are in EAP and will be on the road with v14.3 in the coming hours, so we’ll have a lot of things to discuss over the next few days, especially coming from v14.2.2.5, which I called the most “confusing” FSD release of all time.

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April 7, 2026

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Tesla has officially started rolling out Full Self-Driving v14.3 to Early Access Program (EAP) members, and there are a lot of new improvements.

We are in EAP and will be on the road with v14.3 in the coming hours, so we’ll have a lot of things to discuss over the next few days, especially coming from v14.2.2.5, which I called the most “confusing” FSD release of all time.

Tesla brought out a lot of improvements, according to the v14.3 release notes, which list a vast number of fixes, new features, and new capabilities.

Here’s what Tesla’s release notes for the v14.3 release state:

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  • Improved parking location pin prediction, now shown on a map with a P icon.
  •  Increased decisiveness of parking spot selection and maneuvering.
  • Rewrote the Al compiler and runtime from the ground up with MLIR, resulting in 20% faster reaction time and improving model iteration speed.
  • Enhanced response to emergency vehicles, school buses, right-of-way violators, and other rare vehicles.
  • Mitigated unnecessary lane biasing and minor tailgating behaviors.
  • Improved handling of small animals by focusing RL training on harder examples and adding rewards for better proactive safety.
  • Improved traffic light handling at complex intersections with compound lights, curved roads, and yellow light stopping – driven by training on hard RL examples sourced from the Tesla fleet.
  • Upgraded the Reinforcement Learning (RL) stage of training the FSD neural network, resulting in improvements in a wide variety of driving scenarios.
  • Upgraded the neural network vision encoder, improving understanding in rare and low-visibility scenarios, strengthening 3D geometry understanding, and expanding traffic sign understanding.
  • Improved handling for rare and unusual objects extending, hanging, or leaning into the vehicle path by sourcing infrequent events from the fleet.
  • Improved handling of temporary system degradations by maintaining control and automatically recovering without driver intervention, reducing unnecessary disengagements.

Tesla also listed a handful of future improvements as well:

  • Expand reasoning to all behaviors beyond destination handling
  • Add pothole avoidance
  • Improve driver monitoring system sensitivity with better eye gaze tracking, eye wear handling, and higher accuracy in variable lighting situations

CEO Elon Musk has said that v14.3 could be “where the last big piece of the puzzle finally lands.” We have high expectations for this release because, in a lot of ways, v14.2’s final version was extremely disappointing and seemed to be a regression more than anything.

Nevertheless, Full Self-Driving v14.3 is going to be quite an interesting test, considering this is also the first time Musk has stated it will feel like the car will be “sentient.”

Reasoning will be a bigger piece of the puzzle with this release, although there were some elements of it in v14.2.

Tesla AI Head says future FSD feature has already partially shipped

We plan to travel plenty of miles with it over the next few days, so we’ll keep you posted on what our thoughts are.

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Tesla Model Y ownership review after six months: What I love and what I don’t

I pay about $25 more a month than I did for my Bronco Sport for my Tesla. It was a no-brainer to switch. Like any car, it isn’t perfect, but my Tesla has more things right than any other car I’ve owned, and that makes it truly incredible.

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April 7, 2026

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Credit: Joey Klender

It has been just over six months since I took delivery of my Diamond Black Tesla Model Y Premium Long Range (at that time, it was called the Tesla Model Y Long Range All-Wheel-Drive).

In those six months, I have had the opportunity to experience true and pure electric vehicle ownership, what comes with it after driving a gas vehicle for my entire life, and, to be completely frank, there are not many things I would change.

Owning a Tesla was something I never thought I’d do until I owned a house, simply to take advantage of the advantage of home charging. However, I had to take the chance last year with the elimination of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, as well as to avoid the mountainous stack of repair bills that were presenting themselves with my Ford Bronco Sport.

There are a lot of things I love about my Model Y, and there are a handful of things I wish I could change. In this piece, I plan to break down the ownership experience through about six months with my Tesla Model Y, hoping to provide you with enough insight to potentially make a change — or stick with what you have.

Things I Love About My Tesla Model Y

Driving Experience

Tesla really pushes Full Self-Driving and autonomy, but there are times that, as an owner, I feel I need to drive this car manually. Tesla put so much effort into the Model Y’s engineering and driving experience that it feels like a bit of a disservice to have it drive itself around all the time.

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The suspension in this vehicle, as well as its ability to handle sharp corners, its quick acceleration, and its ability to hug the road at spirited speeds, is truly something you need to feel for yourself. I personally have never had a car that was truly geared toward driving this way. Other than a short-lived ownership experience with a Honda Civic a few years back (something I won’t ever do again), all of my vehicles have been SUVs or compact crossovers.

Credit: Joey Klender

Having a car that offers both a fun driving experience and cargo space is what the Model Y truly is all about. It’s a fun car to drive, but it also has a lot of functionality.

It is always a treat when it’s a little warmer out, I can roll the windows down, and take my Model Y to a tight back road in Pennsylvania to have some fun. I have never loved driving in the traditional sense. I don’t hate it, but it’s not necessarily “fun” to me, but that’s probably because I never had a car that was engineered to make the driving experience enjoyable.

This has truly changed my perspective on driving, and the Model Y is probably the second-most-fun car I’ve ever had the pleasure of driving. The first? The Tesla Model S.

Home Charging and Supercharging

Now, Home Charging is relatively new to me, and I covered my process for figuring that out in another article, which is linked here.

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Waking up in the morning and having some additional range is really a great feeling — and with gas prices going through the stratosphere, the money I’m saving on gas is something quite special.

Supercharging is also a fun experience for me. Do I wish it were a faster experience? Sure. But there’s plenty to do in the car: Netflix, Hulu, Tesla Arcade, or head into whatever convenience store is nearby, use the restroom, and grab a bite to eat.

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I have come to enjoy the evenings that I’ll head over to the Supercharger and plug my car in for half an hour before a longer drive the next day (if I didn’t plug in soon enough at home and need some fast-charging).

Tesla also added a new Supercharging “Wrapped” feature at the end of the year, gamifying the entire Supercharging experience. I’m excited to see all the places I’ve charged at the end of 2026.

Sporty, Clean, and Fun Interior

The interior of my Tesla is probably one of the most underrated features of my car, but it’s definitely my favorite. With vehicles I’ve purchased in the past, the big selling point is the inside for me, not the outside. Of course, I want my car to look good to others, but ultimately, I’m paying the payment and I’m spending 100% of the time I’m using the car on the inside of it.

This highlights the need for a comfy, cozy, and capable cabin that has all the features I could want. In Pennsylvania, we have cold winters and hot and humid summers. The Model Y has heated seats and a steering wheel, as well as A/C seats. The HVAC is incredibly capable, customizable, and comfortable for all passengers, allowing them to make adjustments wherever needed.

At night, the black interior coupled with the accent lighting makes for one of the coolest, spaceship-like interiors on the market. Tesla always called it a “Rave Cave,” and it truly feels like it.

Tech: From Full Self-Driving to Other Features

Tech is really the biggest part of owning a Tesla; it is so advanced that it almost feels like it’s not even a car. Full Self-Driving is obviously such a huge advantage, and I’ve talked about it in great detail, both positively and negatively.

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I could write 1,000 words on FSD, but I don’t want to focus on it solely, because there are so many other things that need to be highlighted.

One thing Tesla really has over others is the ability to improve its cars continually. Simple features like a charging adjustment, new modes, or activating features that weren’t quite ready previously are all things Tesla has added through Over-the-Air updates.

I don’t know if I could pick just one as a favorite, but in the six months I’ve had my car, the most useful thing I’ve come across outside of FSD is Summon. While it is hit or miss a lot of the time, there are little features, like moving the car forward or back from the Tesla App, that are incredibly useful. Adjusting a park job, making snow shoveling around the car easier, or even moving the car slightly when I’m taking photos or video is incredibly seamless with this functionality.

Cargo and Interior Space

One of my big concerns when going from a Bronco Sport to a Model Y was cargo space, only to find out the Model Y has more space than the Bronco Sport. I always have something in the trunk, whether it is luggage, my golf bag, shoes, or groceries. I’ve never felt like I’ve needed more space in this car, although I’m sure that day will come when I get the boys together for a golf trip and I am driving.

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I’ve packed luggage for my Fiancèe and a few of her friends on a trip to Disney with no issues. Four girls going to Disney for five days is a challenge that will frighten even the most capable vehicles. I had no issues.

But what is also great about the Model Y is that it has the room to do other things, like fit an entire mattress for camping. SNUUZU makes an amazing Tesla mattress that I have thrown in the car to watch sunsets. This Summer, I’ll do some camping with it.

It’s one of the many things about this car that I really love.

Things About My Tesla Model Y I Do Not Love

Winter Range

There’s no getting around the fact that owning this car without a faster charging option at home in the winter is truly frustrating. I was charging much more frequently in January and February than in any other month.

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I took a 40-mile round-trip drive to grab some hot wings with friends in January. It took about 105 miles of range.

The cold weather was truly a frustrating time to own an EV, and my problems would have been solved with a Level 2 charger at home. Even still, the drives that were a few hours long were going to be fit with 10-15 minute stops to grab some range at a Supercharger.

Navigation

I really think that Tesla could have the best navigation out there. They always talk about licensing FSD, but if they were to license their Navigation software, I think it could overtake Apple Maps, Waze, and others. With a weather radar, live traffic updates, satellite imagery, and more, the Navigation system is truly the best around.

However, the Navigation itself, meaning the routing, is absolutely abysmal. It doesn’t learn from mistakes, it doesn’t learn more ideal routing, and it doesn’t seem to improve at any point. It still tries to leave my neighborhood by turning left out of a right-turn-only exit. It routinely takes some of the most head-scratching routes to local destinations.

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Consistently using the FSD disengage feature to report the problems to Tesla’s AI Team doesn’t seem to yield much of a result. It would be great if there were a “Learn” mode so that it could be less on Tesla to refine things, and the car would just learn automatically.

Cup Holders

This is a really trivial and nitpicky point of criticism, but boy, do these cupholders need to be larger. Many of my reusable water bottles do not fit in them, so I had to grab a $25 cup holder “adapter” from Amazon. It obstructs the center console from opening comfortably, but it is what it is. It fits standard cups, soft drink containers from fast food restaurants, and bottles of water, at least for the most part.

It would be nice if Tesla could think about something for the next Model Y refresh here, although I may be the only one to really complain about them.

Final Thoughts

I pay about $25 more a month than I did for my Bronco Sport for my Tesla. It was a no-brainer to switch. Like any car, it isn’t perfect, but my Tesla has more things right than any other car I’ve owned, and that makes it truly incredible.

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Sometimes I am still baffled that this is my car. It feels crazy to drive something that is so far ahead of any other car I’ve driven. Three of my friends own Teslas now, all of us bought them at the same time last year, and all four of us don’t know if we’d ever consider going back.

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Elon Musk’s Terafab project locks up massive new partner

Terafab, first revealed by Musk in March, is a massive joint-venture semiconductor complex planned for the North Campus of Giga Texas in Austin.

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7 hours ago

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April 7, 2026

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk’s Terafab project just locked up a massive new partner, just weeks after the new project was announced by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, the three companies that will be direct benefactors from it.

In a landmark announcement on April 7, Intel joined Elon Musk’s Terafab project as a key partner alongside Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. The collaboration focuses on refactoring silicon fabrication technology to deliver ultra-high-performance chips at unprecedented scale.

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan hosted Musk at Intel facilities the prior weekend, underscoring the partnership’s momentum with a public handshake.

Terafab, first revealed by Musk in March, is a massive joint-venture semiconductor complex planned for the North Campus of Giga Texas in Austin. Valued at $20–25 billion, it aims to consolidate the entire chip-making pipeline, design, fabrication, memory production, and advanced packaging in a single location. It should eliminate a majority of Tesla’s dependence on third-party chip fab companies.

The facility will manufacture two primary chip types: energy-efficient edge-inference processors optimized for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) systems, Cybercab and Robotaxi, and Optimus humanoid robots, and high-power, radiation-hardened variants for SpaceX satellites and xAI’s orbital data centers.

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Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry

The project’s audacious goal is to produce 1 terawatt (TW) of annual compute capacity, roughly 50 times current global AI chip output.

Production is expected to begin modestly and scale rapidly, addressing Musk’s warning that chip supply could soon become the biggest constraint on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI growth. By vertically integrating manufacturing tailored to their exact needs, Terafab eliminates supply-chain bottlenecks and accelerates iteration for AI training, inference at the edge, and space-based computing.

Intel’s participation is strategically vital. The company will contribute expertise in advanced process technology, high-volume fabrication, and packaging to help Terafab achieve its aggressive targets. For Intel, the deal strengthens its foundry business and positions it as a critical U.S. player in the AI hardware race.

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For Musk’s ecosystem, it secures domestic, purpose-built silicon at a time when global capacity meets only a fraction of projected demand for hundreds of millions of robots and orbital AI infrastructure.

This is the latest chapter in Intel-Tesla ties. In November 2025, Musk publicly stated at Tesla’s shareholder meeting that partnering with Intel on AI5 chips was “worth having discussions,” amid concerns about TSMC and Samsung capacity.

Exploratory talks followed, with Intel eyeing custom-AI opportunities. The Terafab integration transforms those conversations into concrete collaboration.

The Intel-Terafab alliance carries broader implications. It bolsters U.S. semiconductor sovereignty, drives innovation in cost- and power-efficient AI silicon, and supports Musk’s vision of exponential progress in autonomy, robotics, and space.

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As AI compute demand surges, this partnership could reshape the industry, delivering the silicon backbone for a new era of intelligent machines on Earth and beyond.

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