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Should I get a Tesla Model S now or wait for the Model 3?

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If you’ve been a follower of my posts, you’ll know that I’m an early Model S adopter who’s been salivating over every new feature Tesla has released since 2014. At the top of my list is all wheel drive (I live in New England) followed by Autopilot (I’m a geek who loves technology and I also drive a lot) and a nice-to-have such as automatic high beams.

I’ve been fighting the urge to upgrade my Model S for 2.5 years now and it certainly doesn’t help that Tesla has been so kind to remind me of all the newest features I don’t have.

I feel bothered by this for a couple of reasons:

  1. Tesla has repeatedly said they’re supply-constrained. They are supposed to have plenty of demand. So why chase existing owners repeatedly with a proposal that doesn’t seem to make sense? As an investor in $TSLA, this has me concerned.
  2. It doesn’t make economic sense for me to upgrade.

Let me explain.

Bear in mind that my scenarios may different from yours or someone else, but nevertheless I thought it’s worth sharing.

Scenario 1 – Upgrade now to a new Model S

If I were to get a new Model S I’d want one with at least the amount of range, if not more, than what I already have (85 kWh). This makes the Model S 90D my preferred choice. Features I opted out of from my first purchase could remain off. Smart Air Suspension: not needed. High Fidelity Sound System: nope. More power: tempting, but no thanks. However, I do want dual motor all-wheel drive and Autopilot, but you already knew that.

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Had I purchased late in 2014 (versus early in 2014) I wouldn’t have any appetite for a Model S or Model 3 at this point.

Configuring a new Model S 90D with my bare minimums costs approximately $110,000.

model-s-90d-price-list

Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving Capability” is one of the most questionable choices here and an option that could be skipped for a later time. My main question on this upgrade is whether hardware is bundled upfront and the feature gets “turned on” as a software upgrade at a later date or is the hardware a completely separate upgrade in itself. For me, I want all possible hardware upfront whether it be a  Model 3 or Model S.

My current Model S is at 70,000 miles, 2.5 years old and in perfect shape. Its value? $49,000 according to Tesla, as a trade-in. It could be a bit less now since the trade-in quote is several months old. What this means is that it would cost me nearly $60,000, out of pocket or through financing, to upgrade to the latest and greatest.

This excludes any benefits or tax incentives which may or may not be available for Scenario 2 below.

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Scenario 2 – Wait for Model 3 and trade in my Model S

Everything we’ve seen and heard about the Model 3 thus far implies that it will have all the same capabilities as the Model S but through add-ons.

The Model 3 appears to be 80-90% of the size of the Model S. The Model 3 seats 5 comfortably. The Model 3 will have the option for dual motors and all-wheel drive. And Tesla will obviously put a heavy emphasis on Autopilot and autonomous driving features on the Model 3.

If we take a look at the pricing model for the Model S and Model X, a fully loaded version of each vehicle is just over twice the base price. For example, the most basic Tesla Model S 60 today is $66,000 and a fully loaded P100DL is $160,000 (2.4 times the base). Since I would not want a fully loaded Model 3, I’ll use twice the base price for my sample calculation.

If the Model 3 truly starts at a base price of $35,000 and we double that to a “reasonably equipped” version, we can assume the price for the Model 3 can jump to $70,000 and beyond. Since there’s no question that my trade-in value will be less a year from now, and dropping from $49,000 to likely $40,000, my net out of pocket would be $30,000, or half the cost of upgrading now. That is a pretty wide gap!

So I wait

Each time Tesla contacts me with an upgrade opportunity, I ask the representative to provide a cost benefit on such an upgrade. And each time they ignore my reply. I personally think Tesla should at least respond to their current customers and provide an answer to a very reasonable question.

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Tesla is an amazing company, has great products and holds a bright future, but their sales team could do a better job in communicating the benefits for existing owners to upgrade. The recent price hike in the Model S also doesn’t help convince existing owners the value of upgrading versus waiting it out for the Model 3.

I question – Is there enough product differentiation between the Model S and the Model 3? From where I sit right now, no, there isn’t.

Are you a Model S owner getting the same emails? Are you a new buyer thinking about the Model S now versus waiting on the Model 3? I’d love to hear your thoughts on this. Leave me a comment.

"Rob's passion is technology and gadgets. An engineer by profession and an executive and founder at several high tech startups Rob has a unique view on technology and some strong opinions. When he's not writing about Tesla

Lifestyle

Tesla Semi futuristic sci-fi acceleration sound will never get old

Videos that capture the Semi moving at speed are most notable due to their sheer cool factor.

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Credit: Tesla Owners Silicon Valley/X

The Tesla Semi is not yet in mass production, but the company has accumulated over 7.9 million miles across its test fleet. With Tesla using the Semi for its operations, it is no surprise that sightings of the Class 8 all-electric truck have been abounding. 

These sightings from Tesla enthusiasts vary, but those that capture the the Class 8 all-electric truck moving at speed are most notable, possibly due to their sheer cool factor.

Tesla Semi’s Roar

There is something that just stands out with the Semi, particularly on the road. While the Semi does not have the Cybertruck’s brutalist, angular design, it is still very striking because it’s such a massive machine that moves far too quietly for its size. This is, of course, one of the reasons why the vehicle also becomes extra noteworthy when it fires up its electric motors and accelerates.

Take this video from Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, for example, which shows the all-electric hauler accelerating while pulling what appears to be a full load. In these situations, the Tesla Semi actually becomes audible, but unlike traditional diesel-powered truck, the Class 8 all-electric truck “roars” with its own, unique futuristic, sci-fi sound. In such situations, one could feel the Semi’s raw power, which comes from its three independent motors on its rear axles.

Tesla Semi Ramp

Tesla has been promoting the Semi quite a bit as of late, and recent reports have suggested that the company is putting in a lot of effort to prepare the vehicle for its production in Nevada. Tesla’s Careers website has gone live with over 80 Semi-related job openings recently as well, and a recent report has suggested that Tesla has ramped the Semi’s factory workers in Nevada to over 1,000 employees.

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The company has even shared an update video of the Semi factory’s progress near Giga Nevada, as well as the design of the vehicle’s new logo. The Semi’s updated logo is quite interesting as it features elements from the Tesla Model 3’s first logo, which was unveiled way back in 2016.

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Elon Musk jokes he will join Mr Beast’s “100 Men vs 1 Gorilla” challenge

It’s a good sign, if any, that the overworked Musk is becoming a bit more lighthearted again.

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Credit: Elon Musk/X

Following the first quarter Tesla earnings call, CEO Elon Musk seems to have become a bit more relaxed—relaxed enough to joke about fighting a gorilla with 99 other people, at least.

It’s a good sign, if any, that the overworked Musk is becoming a bit more lighthearted again and not too busy picking fights with politicians on social media.

The Viral 100 Men vs 1 Gorilla Challenge

Over the weekend, a post on social media platform X went viral. The post itself was quite simple, with user @DreamChasnMike stating that he thinks 100 men could beat one gorilla. “Everybody just gotta be dedicated to the sh*t,” the X user joked. The post exploded on the platform, garnering 284 million impressions as of writing.

The silly question also triggered a massive debate about whether 100 men would really stand a chance against a literal gorilla. Some users even lamented that the premise was a sign of male hubris. Nevertheless, the question proved to be a fun topic on X, with some more dedicated users even posting simulated videos of what the “100 Men vs 1 Gorilla Challenge” could look like. 

Mr. Beast and Elon Musk Join In

The premise is quite similar to other viral videos from noted YouTube creator Mr. Beast, so it was no surprise that edited images of Mr. Beast YouTube thumbnails with “100 Men vs a Gorilla” also started spreading on the social media platform. Mr. Beast, who tends to be game to such silly ideas, actually reposted the edited image, joking “Need 100 men to test this, any volunteers?”

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In true Elon Musk fashion, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO noted that he would join the challenge. “Sure, what’s the worst that could happen” Musk wrote in his post on X. Musk’s reply triggered quite a few laughs on X, with some stating that the world probably still needs the CEO.

While silly, Musk’s comment and his recent, more frequent posts about his companies’ products like Starlink and Grok have been received well by his supporters. Over the past months, after all, Musk has been very political and quite confrontational on social media. With Musk soon taking a step back from the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) daily operations, however, it seems like X will soon get a more tempered and lighthearted Elon Musk once more.

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Possible first glimpse of Tesla “Model 2” affordable car in Fremont Factory

The models that Tesla will release in the coming months will resemble the company’s current lineup.

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Image Credit: @metgodinwilderness7130/YouTube

During the Q1 earnings call, Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy set expectations on the design of the affordable models that the company is expected to launch this 2025. As per the Tesla executive, the models that Tesla will release in the coming months will resemble the company’s current lineup.

Drone footage from the Fremont Factory earlier this month might have provided the EV community its first potential glimpse at Tesla’s affordable cars–fondly dubbed by EV fans and analysts as the “Model 2” or even “Model Q”–or at least their components and overall shape.

The Sighting

Tesla watcher and drone operator Met God in Wilderness, who has been posting aerial videos of the Fremont Factory for years now, recently shared some footage from his drone flyovers this month. While the Fremont Factory was abuzz with activity as usual, a couple of rather strange vehicles were quickly spotted by EV watchers on social media.

During the drone operator’s flyover on the 17th, for example, an unfinished vehicle could be seen parked next to what appeared to be fully-built Model S and Model Y units. What was especially interesting was the vehicle’s roof, which seemed to be slightly narrower than the Model Ys around it. Based on the video, at least, the vehicle seemed to be shaped like a crossover as well.

Footage from the 24th of April also proved quite interesting, with the drone operator capturing footage of another cryptic vehicle. Unlike the mysterious, unfinished, crossover-esque car spotted on the 17th, this particular unit seemed to have a more sloping rear, at least based on the shape of its covering.

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What Lars Moravy Said

In Tesla’s Q1 2025 Update Letter, Tesla noted that “plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.” Tesla also noted that the new vehicles will utilize aspects of its next generation and its current platforms. They will also be produced on the same manufacturing lines as its present vehicle lineup, likely the Model Y and Model 3. 

During the earnings call itself, Moravy specifically stated that the new models that would come out in the next months would resemble the company’s current vehicles. They will, however, be affordable. “Models that come out in next months will be built on our lines and will resemble, in form and shape, the cars we currently make. And the key is that they’ll be affordable, and you’ll be able to buy one,” Moravy stated.

Watch the drone operator’s footage from April 17 below.

The drone operator’s footage from April 24 can be viewed below.

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