Investor's Corner
The Elon Musk effect: Dogecoin spikes after Tesla CEO Tweets meme
The Elon Musk effect is real, and it’s affecting everything from stocks to Cryptocurrencies. At 2:57 AM EST, the Tesla CEO Tweeted a legendary Lion King meme, with his face dubbed on Rafiki, and the Dogecoin logo photoshopped onto Simba. Before that, Musk shared a picture of Falcon 9 lifting off into the stratosphere. What happened next? The currency spiked by nearly a third.
At 2:29 AM, Musk shared a photo of the Falcon 9 rocket, a SpaceX spacecraft launching and lifting toward outer space. A simple, one-word reply to his own photograph followed six minutes later: Doge.
Doge
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 4, 2021
At that time, Dogecoin immediately began a spike in value. Still, Musk wasn’t finished with his effort to help lift the value of the now-widely-known Dogecoin, as the Lion King meme came less than a half-hour later. For around 32 minutes, Dogecoin continued to grow in value, reaching 5.79 cents a share, something that does not sound like it is all that valuable. However, a 779.02% growth in 2021 so far would say otherwise.
ur welcome pic.twitter.com/e2KF57KLxb
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 4, 2021
The surge isn’t speculative either, the timing of the spike can be directly attributed to Musk’s Tweets. Graphs from CoinDesk show Musk’s influence and how it lines up with the spike in valuation.
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- CoinDesk
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- CoinDesk
The Musk Effect
Elon Musk seems to have a small amount of control over some stocks, coming from the influence he has felt as the frontman of his electric car company, Tesla. It all started when investors took a Tweet of his out of context on a stock called Signal, a messaging application. Daily downloads were averaging to about 50,000 per day, CNET reported, but these surged to over 1.3 million by January 11th, four days after Musk’s Tweet.
Use Signal
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 7, 2021
As a result of Musk’s Tweets, Signal exploded from 37 cents per share in early December to $38.70 on January 11th, giving it a 5,675% surge in value. This was the most significant effect Musk had on any stock, but it surely didn’t stop there.
After the Signal situation, Musk said “I kinda love Etsy,” because of a Marvin the Martian wool help he bought for his dog. The stock didn’t experience even close to the same surge in value as Signal, only boosting 2.2% on the day, but still seeing some gains after Musk’s tweet.
Bought a hand knit wool Marvin the Martian helm for my dog
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 26, 2021
Dogecoin seems to be the most recent example, but it certainly may not be the last. Musk, a man vocal about his distaste for short-selling, may hold some influence as retail investors are learning to combat against large hedge funds who have controlled markets for over a century. Now, the little guy is getting some help from a man for the people, Elon Musk, who not only is trying to save the world from environmental collapse, but also by supporting the recent r/WallStreetBets saga, that has made retail investors substantial sums.
Musk even got into touch with Vlad Tenev, Robinhood’s CEO, during a Clubhouse session last week. Musk had the opportunity to speak with Tenev to clear up some confusion about why Robinhood shut down trading on some stocks that had high growth, including Gamestop and AMC, and why Tenev received a demand for $3 billion at 3 AM from the National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC).
Elon Musk gets Robinhood CEO to ‘spill the beans’ on trade restrictions
“So, it was unprecedented activity. I don’t have the full context about what was going on, what’s going on in the NSCC to make these calculations,” Tenev said while adding that restricting certain stocks was not in Robinhood’s control. “We had no choice,” he said.
Musk asked, “If you had no choice, that’s understandable. But then we’ve got to find out why you had no choice and who are these people that are saying you have no choice?”
“To be fair, we were able to open and service our customers. Twenty-four hours later, our team raised over a billion in capital, so that when we do open [Monday] morning, we’ll be able to kind of relax these stringent position limits that we put on these securities on Friday,” Tenev replied. “This was a clearinghouse decision, and it was just based on the capital requirements. So, from our perspective, Citadel and other market makers weren’t involved in that.”
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA and Dogecoin Shareholder. He does not own GameStop, Etsy, or Signal stock and has no intentions to change any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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