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Tesla won’t slow despite Edmunds claim that loss of tax credit will “kill the U.S. EV market”

Published

8 years ago

April 10, 2017

Steve Hanley

Edmunds has released a new study that claims the loss of federal tax credits for EV buyers is “likely to kill the U.S. EV market.” It goes on to say, “Without these credits, this market is likely to crash.” Edmunds bases its analysis on what happened when the state of Georgia repealed its EV incentive program in the middle of 2015. Not only did Georgia eliminate its EV incentive, it also imposed new fees on EV drivers designed to offset the loss of revenue the state experienced because cars with electric motors use less gasoline.

Up until then, Georgia gave every qualifying EV buyer a $5,000 credit — the largest in the nation. That was on top of the $7,500 federal tax credit and made buying an EV in Georgia a very attractive proposition. The biggest beneficiary was the Nissan LEAF. In June, 2015 — the last month the incentive was available — 1,008 of them were sold or leased. In July, after the rebate was no longer available, 66 cars were delivered.

Cars eligible for the state incentive accounted for up to 17% of the new car market in Georgia. Following the legislature’s decision to eliminate the credit, they have fallen to about 2% of sales. Note that is still higher than the percentage of EV sales in the US as a whole.

Should Tesla be concerned? Not really says the Motley Fool. Data compiled by IHS Markit and included in the Edmunds analysis shows a drop in sales of the Model S shortly after Georgia repealed its rebate but sales quickly recovered and have since gone on to set new records for the company in the Peachtree State.

The federal tax credit was originally a pump priming exercise intended to help EV manufacturers get started. The assumption Congress made when it first enacted the credit was that once a company had sold 200,000 cars with plugs, economies of scale would begin to kick in, making it possible to build and sell electrified cars profitably without government assistance.

Tesla is getting close to that figure and will surely pass it once the Model 3 gets into production this summer. After that, the federal tax credit for Tesla vehicles will begin to phase out. In addition, many people worry the Trump administration will kill the federal EV tax credit entirely. According to Edmunds, that means Tesla could suffer a dramatic decline in sales — at least in the US. Here’s why that won’t happen according to the Motley Fool.

Not so fast

First, any comparison between a 2015 Nissan LEAF and a 2018 Tesla Model 3 is a lopsided contest. The LEAF is a fine car but it suffers from a serious lack of range. Nor does it have any of the industry leading technology Tesla offers its customers. It relies on the CHAdeMO charging standard, which is rapidly losing ground to the CCS standard and the Tesla Supercharger network.

Red Tesla Model 3 at the vehicle unveiling event on March 31, 2016 from the company’s Hawthorne, CA Design Center.

Second, the base price of the Model 3 is $35,000, which happens to be very near the average selling price of a new passenger vehicle in the US market today. With or without incentives, the Model 3 will be highly competitive. With nearly 400,000 reservations worldwide, demand for the Model 3 is clearly not dependent on government financial incentives.

The real issue here is that electric car sales have not advanced as quickly as electric car advocates predicted. Range anxiety, lack of charging infrastructure, and fear of the unknown have kept many people from buying an electric car, whether from Tesla or any other manufacturer. The “tipping point” when electric cars become the first choice of mainstream car buyers is tantalizingly close but still not here yet.

Reasonable people may disagree about the best way to promote electric cars. Paying people to buy them may not be as beneficial to society as subsidizing the infrastructure needed to charge them. The interstate highway system was a hugely expensive undertaking but it unleashed an unprecedented surge in US economic output. Today it is still the backbone of commerce in America. Putting the money used to fund the federal EV tax credit to work building the nation’s charging infrastructure could be a more efficient use of resources.

By any analysis, the Tesla phenomenon is not dependent on government incentives. It is based on building compelling electric automobiles that outperform the competition. Elon Musk deliberately chose to start at the top of the market to attract those who influence public opinion. That strategy is working and will continue to work even if the federal tax credit is eliminated entirely.

Related Topics:Featured Op-Ed Tesla Tesla Model 3

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Steve Hanley

"I write about technology and the coming zero emissions revolution."

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Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash.”

Published

2 hours ago

September 2, 2025

Joey Klender

(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update, which will utilize the company’s vision-first approach to enable better protection in the event of an accident.

Over the years, Tesla has gained an incredible reputation for prioritizing safety in its vehicles, with crash test ratings at the forefront of its engineers’ minds.

This has led to Tesla gaining numerous five-star safety ratings and awards related to safety. It is not just a statistical thing, either. In the real world, we’ve seen Teslas demonstrate some impressive examples of crash safety.

Everything from that glass roof not caving in when a tree falls on it to a Model Y surviving a drive off a cliff has been recorded.

However, Tesla is always looking to improve safety, and unlike most companies, it does not need a physical hardware update to do so. It can enhance features such as crash response and airbag performance through Over-the-Air software updates, which download automatically to the vehicle.

In Tesla’s 2025.32 Software Update, the company is rolling out a Frontal Airbag System Enhancement, which aims to use Tesla Vision, the company’s camera-based approach to self-driving, to keep occupants safe.

The release notes state (via NotaTeslaApp):

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash. Building on top of regulatory and industry crash testing, this release enables front airbags to begin to inflate and restrain occupants earlier, in a way that only Tesla’s integrated systems are capable of doing, making your car safer over time.”

The use of cameras to predict a better time to restrain occupants with seatbelts and inflate airbags prior to a collision is a fantastic way to prevent injuries and limit harm done to those in the vehicle.

The feature is currently limited to the Model Y.

Elon Musk

Elon Musk says this Tesla project will make up vast majority of company value

“~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus,” Musk said.

Published

3 hours ago

September 2, 2025

Joey Klender

(Credit: Ryan Lash/TED)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has not shied away from the idea that the company’s value is not reliant on its performance as an automaker.

That idea is even more prudent in today’s landscape than ever, especially as Tesla leans more on its prowess as an AI, autonomy, and robotics company rather than one that just makes electric cars.

Musk solidified that point on Monday, as he revealed that he believes the vast majority of Tesla’s valuation will rely on a project that the company has been developing for several years.

The CEO has long discussed how robotics will revolutionize the labor landscape in factories, households, and other workplaces.

He believes Optimus, as it is rolled out in the coming years, will truly take over as the main contributor to Tesla’s valuation, being worth about 80 percent of the company’s total market cap:

Those are the biggest factors.
~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 1, 2025

This is a point Musk has previously discussed, but he has never listed a specific number in terms of what Optimus could mean to Tesla. In the past, he’s mentioned Optimus’s ability to generate long-term revenue potential, its value to the company, and its impact on the market overall.

Musk has said Optimus has the potential to be worth over $10 trillion in revenue:

“It’s one of those things where I think long term, Optimus will be — Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue, like it’s really bananas. So, that, you can obviously afford a lot of training compute in that situation. In fact, even $500 billion training compute in that situation would be quite a good deal.”

Optimus has been a main point of discussion amongst analysts who cover the company. Piper Sandler recently released a note that said “Optimus should be moving/staging parts within Tesla’s facilities” by this time next year.

Analysts also said that Optimus could be a major benefit for companies to bring in to handle tedious tasks in manufacturing settings. If it is able to work 18-hour shifts, the firm believes Tesla could price it at $100,000 per unit.

Tesla talks Semi ramp, Optimus, Robotaxi rollout, FSD with Wall Street firm

Other firms, like Morgan Stanley, have said Tesla could replace its own staff by 10 percent with Optimus, saving the company $2.5 billion.

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Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design

In a new video titled “Sustainable Abundance,” Tesla was showing the Cybercab clay models being autonomously molded. In the back, there are very clearly several models of a Cybertruck-inspired SUV:

Published

20 hours ago

September 1, 2025

Joey Klender

Credit: Tesla

Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design, which would encapsulate the stainless steel exoskeleton of the Cybertruck but with elements of an SUV.

The company has been hearing from consumers and fans for some time that it is in need of a full-size SUV in its lineup.

Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast

The Model X is more compact than what people are looking for, and although the company has said its focus for some time would be on developing affordable models and the Cybercab, which only enables two-passenger travel, it appears that it may be considering other options.

BREAKING: Tesla has revealed a Cyber SUV model in their new “Sustainable Abundance” video.
The mini models can be seen in the back of the Tesla design studio behind the clay Cybercab in the video. Whether Tesla will release a Cyber SUV remains to be seen, but based on these… pic.twitter.com/tEhckWBHvC
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 1, 2025

This would not be the first time Tesla has placed projects it is developing in the back of a promotional video, as it did something similar when it was unveiling the improvements it made to the new Model Y earlier this year.

It appeared to show two new body styles sitting in the back under car covers:

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A post shared by TESLARATI (@teslarati)

There are two things that could prevent this from becoming a future, developed product that reaches the market. One of them seems to be a definitive no, but Tesla’s plans could certainly change, especially given the strong push from fans for this type of vehicle.

Tesla said it wouldn’t build a Stainless Steel exoskeleton vehicle again

Tesla said in its Q4 2024 Shareholder Deck that Cybertruck’s stainless steel exoskeleton would not be used in future vehicles in the top line:

This seems like a definitive no in terms of developing an SUV based on Cybertruck’s aesthetics. However, that could always change.

Tesla’s main focus in autonomy currently

Developing an SUV of this size has been previously dismissed by Tesla, as its focus is on autonomy, AI, and robotics. However, it will still need to develop attractive and useful vehicles that address a large market, and the United States has a strong affinity for SUVs and crossovers.

It seems totally feasible that Tesla could bring this type of vehicle to market to appease the many fans who have called for the company to build it. Tesla has not committed to anything at this point, which is the most important thing to remember.