News
Tesla won’t slow despite Edmunds claim that loss of tax credit will “kill the U.S. EV market”
Edmunds has released a new study that claims the loss of federal tax credits for EV buyers is “likely to kill the U.S. EV market.” It goes on to say, “Without these credits, this market is likely to crash.” Edmunds bases its analysis on what happened when the state of Georgia repealed its EV incentive program in the middle of 2015. Not only did Georgia eliminate its EV incentive, it also imposed new fees on EV drivers designed to offset the loss of revenue the state experienced because cars with electric motors use less gasoline.
Up until then, Georgia gave every qualifying EV buyer a $5,000 credit — the largest in the nation. That was on top of the $7,500 federal tax credit and made buying an EV in Georgia a very attractive proposition. The biggest beneficiary was the Nissan LEAF. In June, 2015 — the last month the incentive was available — 1,008 of them were sold or leased. In July, after the rebate was no longer available, 66 cars were delivered.
Cars eligible for the state incentive accounted for up to 17% of the new car market in Georgia. Following the legislature’s decision to eliminate the credit, they have fallen to about 2% of sales. Note that is still higher than the percentage of EV sales in the US as a whole.
Should Tesla be concerned? Not really says the Motley Fool. Data compiled by IHS Markit and included in the Edmunds analysis shows a drop in sales of the Model S shortly after Georgia repealed its rebate but sales quickly recovered and have since gone on to set new records for the company in the Peachtree State.
The federal tax credit was originally a pump priming exercise intended to help EV manufacturers get started. The assumption Congress made when it first enacted the credit was that once a company had sold 200,000 cars with plugs, economies of scale would begin to kick in, making it possible to build and sell electrified cars profitably without government assistance.
-->Tesla is getting close to that figure and will surely pass it once the Model 3 gets into production this summer. After that, the federal tax credit for Tesla vehicles will begin to phase out. In addition, many people worry the Trump administration will kill the federal EV tax credit entirely. According to Edmunds, that means Tesla could suffer a dramatic decline in sales — at least in the US. Here’s why that won’t happen according to the Motley Fool.
Not so fast
First, any comparison between a 2015 Nissan LEAF and a 2018 Tesla Model 3 is a lopsided contest. The LEAF is a fine car but it suffers from a serious lack of range. Nor does it have any of the industry leading technology Tesla offers its customers. It relies on the CHAdeMO charging standard, which is rapidly losing ground to the CCS standard and the Tesla Supercharger network.
Red Tesla Model 3 at the vehicle unveiling event on March 31, 2016 from the company’s Hawthorne, CA Design Center.
Second, the base price of the Model 3 is $35,000, which happens to be very near the average selling price of a new passenger vehicle in the US market today. With or without incentives, the Model 3 will be highly competitive. With nearly 400,000 reservations worldwide, demand for the Model 3 is clearly not dependent on government financial incentives.
The real issue here is that electric car sales have not advanced as quickly as electric car advocates predicted. Range anxiety, lack of charging infrastructure, and fear of the unknown have kept many people from buying an electric car, whether from Tesla or any other manufacturer. The “tipping point” when electric cars become the first choice of mainstream car buyers is tantalizingly close but still not here yet.
Reasonable people may disagree about the best way to promote electric cars. Paying people to buy them may not be as beneficial to society as subsidizing the infrastructure needed to charge them. The interstate highway system was a hugely expensive undertaking but it unleashed an unprecedented surge in US economic output. Today it is still the backbone of commerce in America. Putting the money used to fund the federal EV tax credit to work building the nation’s charging infrastructure could be a more efficient use of resources.
By any analysis, the Tesla phenomenon is not dependent on government incentives. It is based on building compelling electric automobiles that outperform the competition. Elon Musk deliberately chose to start at the top of the market to attract those who influence public opinion. That strategy is working and will continue to work even if the federal tax credit is eliminated entirely.
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News
Tesla is improving Giga Berlin’s free “Giga Train” service for employees
With this initiative, Tesla aims to boost the number of Gigafactory Berlin employees commuting by rail while keeping the shuttle free for all riders.
Tesla will expand its factory shuttle service in Germany beginning January 4, adding direct rail trips from Berlin Ostbahnhof to Giga Berlin-Brandenburg in Grünheide.
With this initiative, Tesla aims to boost the number of Gigafactory Berlin employees commuting by rail while keeping the shuttle free for all riders.
New shuttle route
As noted in a report from rbb24, the updated service, which will start January 4, will run between the Berlin Ostbahnhof East Station and the Erkner Station at the Gigafactory Berlin complex. Tesla stated that the timetable mirrors shift changes for the facility’s employees, and similar to before, the service will be completely free. The train will offer six direct trips per day as well.
“The service includes six daily trips, which also cover our shift times. The trains will run between Berlin Ostbahnhof (with a stop at Ostkreuz) and Erkner station to the Gigafactory,” Tesla Germany stated.
Even with construction continuing at Fangschleuse and Köpenick stations, the company said the route has been optimized to maintain a predictable 35-minute travel time. The update follows earlier phases of Tesla’s “Giga Train” program, which initially connected Erkner to the factory grounds before expanding to Berlin-Lichtenberg.
-->Tesla pushes for majority rail commuting
Tesla began production at Grünheide in March 2022, and the factory’s workforce has since grown to around 11,500 employees, with an estimated 60% commuting from Berlin. The facility produces the Model Y, Tesla’s best-selling vehicle, for both Germany and other territories.
The company has repeatedly emphasized its goal of having more than half its staff use public transportation rather than cars, positioning the shuttle as a key part of that initiative. In keeping with the factory’s sustainability focus, Tesla continues to allow even non-employees to ride the shuttle free of charge, making it a broader mobility option for the area.
News
Tesla Model 3 and Model Y dominate China’s real-world efficiency tests
The Tesla Model 3 posted 20.8 kWh/100 km while the Model Y followed closely at 21.8 kWh/100 km.
Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y once again led the field in a new real-world energy-consumption test conducted by China’s Autohome, outperforming numerous rival electric vehicles in controlled conditions.
The results, which placed both Teslas in the top two spots, prompted Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun to acknowledge Tesla’s efficiency advantage while noting that his company’s vehicles will continue refining its own models to close the gap.
Tesla secures top efficiency results
Autohome’s evaluation placed all vehicles under identical conditions, such as a full 375-kg load, cabin temperature fixed at 24°C on automatic climate control, and a steady cruising speed of 120 km/h. In this environment, the Tesla Model 3 posted 20.8 kWh/100 km while the Model Y followed closely at 21.8 kWh/100 km, as noted in a Sina News report.
These figures positioned Tesla’s vehicles firmly at the top of the ranking and highlighted their continued leadership in long-range efficiency. The test also highlighted how drivetrain optimization, software management, and aerodynamic profiles remain key differentiators in high-speed, cold-weather scenarios where many electric cars struggle to maintain low consumption.
Xiaomi’s Lei Jun pledges to continue learning from Tesla
Following the results, Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun noted that the Xiaomi SU7 actually performed well overall but naturally consumed more energy due to its larger C-segment footprint and higher specification. He reiterated that factors such as size and weight contributed to the difference in real-world consumption compared to Tesla. Still, the executive noted that Xiaomi will continue to learn from the veteran EV maker.
“The Xiaomi SU7’s energy consumption performance is also very good; you can take a closer look. The fact that its test results are weaker than Tesla’s is partly due to objective reasons: the Xiaomi SU7 is a C-segment car, larger and with higher specifications, making it heavier and naturally increasing energy consumption. Of course, we will continue to learn from Tesla and further optimize its energy consumption performance!” Lei Jun wrote in a post on Weibo.
-->Lei Jun has repeatedly described Tesla as the global benchmark for EV efficiency, previously stating that Xiaomi may require three to five years to match its leadership. He has also been very supportive of FSD, even testing the system in the United States.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reveals what will make Optimus’ ridiculous production targets feasible
Musk recent post suggests that Tesla has a plan to attain Optimus’ production goals.
Elon Musk subtly teased Tesla’s strategy to achieve Optimus’ insane production volume targets. The CEO has shared his predictions about Optimus’ volume, and they are so ambitious that one would mistake them for science fiction.
Musk’s recent post on X, however, suggests that Tesla has a plan to attain Optimus’ production goals.
The highest volume product
Elon Musk has been pretty clear about the idea of Optimus being Tesla’s highest-volume product. During the Tesla 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, Musk stated that the humanoid robot will see “the fastest production ramp of any product of any large complex manufactured product ever,” starting with a one-million-per-year line at the Fremont Factory.
Following this, Musk stated that Giga Texas will receive a 10 million-per-year unit Optimus line. But even at this level, the Optimus ramp is just beginning, as the production of the humanoid robot will only accelerate from there. At some point, the CEO stated that a Mars location could even have a 100 million-unit-per-year production line, resulting in up to a billion Optimus robots being produced per year.
Self-replication is key
During the weekend, Musk posted a short message that hinted at Tesla’s Optimus strategy. “Optimus will be the Von Neumann probe,” the CEO wrote in his post. This short comment suggests that Tesla will not be relying on traditional production systems to make Optimus. The company probably won’t even hire humans to produce the humanoid robot at one point. Instead, Optimus robots could simply produce other Optimus robots, allowing them to self-replicate.
-->The Von Neumann is a hypothetical self-replicating spacecraft proposed by the mathematician and physicist John von Neumann in the 1940s–1950s. The hypothetical machine in the concept would be able to travel to a new star system or location, land, mine, and extract raw materials from planets, asteroids, and moons as needed, use those materials to manufacture copies of itself, and launch the new copies toward other star systems.
If Optimus could pull off this ambitious target, the humanoid robot would indeed be the highest volume product ever created. It could, as Musk predicted, really change the world.
Tesla is improving Giga Berlin’s free “Giga Train” service for employees
Tesla Model 3 and Model Y dominate China’s real-world efficiency tests
