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Mars as an Earth-like planet in the past not likely, according to new study
Many of Earth’s citizens have their eyes set on Mars as a planet prime for human colonization, and much of this optimism is based on the idea that the now barren and frozen planet was once full of water and green plant life. Warming things up, as SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has posited on numerous occasions, would theoretically bring Mars back to a more Earth-like state. However, a recent study published in the journal Nature Geoscience has thrown doubts onto this restorative thinking. Rather than a world shaped by flowing rivers and lakes on the surface, the publication suggests that the red planet gained most of its liquid water-suggestive features from moving glaciers and rivers flowing beneath them.
“The southern highlands of Mars are dissected by hundreds of valley networks, which are evidence that water once sculpted the surface… Previous interpretations of the geological record require precipitation and surface water runoff to form the valley networks, in contradiction with climate simulations that predict a cold, icy ancient Mars,” the paper’s abstract states. “Here we present a global comparative study of valley network morphometry…with physical models of fluvial [river-formed], groundwater sapping [erosion] and glacial and subglacial erosion. We found that valley formation involved all these processes, but that subglacial and fluvial erosion are the predominant mechanisms.”
In other words, as theorized in this study by Anna Grau Galofre et al., titled “Valley formation on early Mars by subglacial and fluvial erosion,” Mars’ geographical features were not likely formed by rainfall from an environment similar to ours on Earth. The planet has always been much too cold to support the weather patterns needed to be possible. Of course, that doesn’t mean terraforming is out of the picture, just that it might be a newer state of existence for Mars than we thought.
Notably, Elon Musk took to Twitter this week to discuss his hopes for making things more human-friendly, even if green will be a new color for the planet. “There’s a lot of frozen CO2 & H2O on Mars. Heating the planet will densify the atmosphere. It’s solvable,” Musk tweeted in response to a discussion on the planet’s topography. The CEO has previously explained his plans for making this happen – using nuclear bombs.
“Nuke Mars! T-shirt soon,” he wrote on Twitter last year, subsequently inspiring dozens of shirt designs with the motto to go on sale. “Nuke Mars refers to a continuous stream of very low fallout nuclear fusion explosions above the atmosphere to create artificial suns. Much like our sun, this would not cause Mars to become radioactive,” he later explained. SpaceX currently sells coffee mugs with a Mars image that terraforms when heated in a show of enthusiasm for Musk’s plans.
There’s a lot of frozen CO2 & H2O on Mars. Heating the planet will densify the atmosphere. It’s solvable.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 25, 2020
Another important part of the ‘green’ Mars theory is that it bodes well for the search for ancient extraterrestrial life. NASA’s newest rover Perseverance, currently on its way to the red planet, will be exploring with astrobiology as its main mission. The rover’s landing destination will be a 28-mile-wide crater named Jezero (translation: “lake”) thought to have held water billions of years ago. NASA’s 2012 Curiosity mission found that Mars overall was rich in material that could have potentially supported microbial life, and the Perseverance mission will collect the evidence to back up that claim. That evidence, in the form of samples, will be brought back to Earth in a future mission.
A video published by Anton Petrov gives some further perspective and visuals surrounding this recent study about Mars’ icy vs. green past. You can watch it below:
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
