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Musk and Straubel talk about the Model 3 ramp and solar power

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Model 3 outside Gigafactory

At the press conference held in the lobby of the Gigafactory on Wednesday evening, Elon Musk and JB Straubel told the press a great deal about the upcoming Model 3 and the company’s new focus on solar power.

On The Model 3

Musk: “I believe we are on track to meet the half million by 2018. The hardest thing to predict is really the ramp. The ramp looks like an S curve and grows exponentially. Initially the ramp looks really tiny and as you eliminate bottle necks you climb the ramp and you level off. Its always difficult for us to forecast the exact shape of the S curve for the production ramp.

“It’s much easier for us to forecast when things are going to be steady state. So we’ve been pretty good about forecasting 2018, whereas 2017 is much more in the air because we’ll be working through a complex production ramp.”

Straubel: “One of the points is the schedule and ramp up plan for the Gigafactory. With the pull up of the Model 3, and the volume goal to meet a half million cars by 2018, we also have had to pull up the Gigafactory schedule to supply the cells and battery packs for the Model 3.

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“What that means is for the earlier schedule for the Gigafactory, we’ve had to pull that ahead by two years. By 2018 we have to be at 35 gigawatt hours of production to support those Model 3s. You can see the evidence of that around the factory. And Panasonic has done their part to absolutely stay in sync with that as we’ve accelerated the schedule for Model 3.”

On The Size Of The Gigafactory

Musk: “What you’re seeing is only 14% of the size of the factory overall. It’s quite huge. One of the things we discovered as we got more into the Gigafactory design and optimizing what it could do, we thought we could probably achieve about three times the output that was originally planned.

“So we originally expected to make about 35 gigawatt hours at the cell level and about 50 gigawatt hours at the module or pack level. Now we are expecting to do about 150 gigawatt hours in the same volumetric space as the original design.  We can expect to see 10,000 [workers], compared to the 5,000 or 6,000 previous estimate. Maybe in three to four years.

“Things are on track to be able to meet the Model 3 plan next year. We’re really excited about what’s happening here.”

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Powerwall and Powerpack business

Musk: “Stationary storage will be as big as the car business long term. The growth rate will probably be several times what it is for the car business. We roughly assume that it’ll be probably a third of our output. But the growth rate is faster, so then grow to probably match what it is for cars.

Solar Power And  The Utility Grids

A battle is being waged between alternative power solutions and traditional utility companies. SolarCity has recently shut down operations in Nevada, putting 500 people out of work because policies instituted by the Nevada PUC the company feels are unfavorable to rooftop solar. At the press conference Wednesday, Musk made several remarks about the solar power industry and traditional power generation. He was careful to acknowledge alternative energy can cause strains for traditional utilities and grid operators.

Musk: “Solar power production actually helps the grid to a certain point. Only past a certain point does it create issues with the grid. A utility can handle up to 20% of production from solar and that helps the grid because it produces electricity when needed. Solar power peaks in the middle of the day and that’s also when air conditioning is running and businesses are operating, so power production matches usage.

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“But once you exceed the 20% level, then it does become more difficult for utilities to power balance the grid. So I think it makes sense for net metering to be there up through the point where it helps the cost structure of the grid. That’s the logical thing. The utilities in some cases have tried to obfuscate that its actually helpful, and have tried to lower that number of 20% to like 3%.

Tesla And Grid Services

Musk: “I think we’ll get into grid services eventually. The goal of Tesla is to accelerate sustainable energy, so we’re going to take a step back and think about what’s most likely to achieve that goal.

Autopilot

Sandwiched into the discussion was a question about whether Musk has any regrets about how Tesla introduced its Autopilot system, especially after Consumer Reports issued a call for the company to disable the Autosteer function recently.

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Musk: “No, I think we did the right thing. I think we improved people’s safety, not just in fatalities but also injuries. We can see how it actually reduces impact velocity. It can reduce impact from 76 miles per hour to 46 miles an hour. That’s massive.

“We polled Tesla owners, do you want autopilot disabled or not. Not one person wanted it disabled. That’s pretty telling.”

Source and photo credit: Fortune

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Tesla takes huge step with Cybercab in new spotting

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Credit: Met God in Wilderness | YouTube

Tesla has taken a huge step forward with its Cybercab project, as the vehicle has been spotted on the Fremont Test Track for the first time.

Typically, when cars are spotted on the Fremont Test Track, it means Tesla has begun advancing the development of that specific project. With Cybercab production slated for 2026, it seems Tesla is ready to get things moving.

The Cybercab was unveiled one year ago tomorrow, at the “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles.

Tesla Robotaxi Cybercab: Seats, price, special features, release date, and more

Tesla has been hoping to get Cybercab production started in early 2026. With a few months until then, the program has taken some leaps, including the recent start of crash testing of the vehicle at the Fremont Factory in Northern California.

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Some of these units have made their way to Gigafactory Texas at Tesla’s crash testing facility:

Now, it has taken another step as Tesla has officially started testing the vehicle at the Fremont Test Track:

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Here’s when vehicles in Tesla’s lineup were first spotted on the Fremont Test Track and then launched:

Vehicle
First Spotted on Fremont Test Track
Launch Date (Production Start/First Deliveries)
Model Y
December 12, 2019
January 2020
Tesla Semi
March 8, 2021
December 1, 2022 (Limited to pilot program participants)
Cybertruck
December 10, 2021
November 2023
Cybercab
October 9, 2025
Early 2026

Timeframes for when Tesla vehicles hit the Fremont Test Track and when their production and deliveries begin certainly vary.

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However, the Cybercab being spotted marks a significant step forward for Tesla, as it indicates the company is nearing a major milestone in production, whether for deliveries or on-road testing.

It does seem as if Tesla could employ the Cybercab for its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas, and Northern California.

With more markets expected to launch Robotaxi rides soon, it could be a formidable challenge for the new vehicle, especially if Tesla can initiate rides without a Safety Monitor.

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Chevy answers Tesla’s new ‘Standard’ offerings with an actually affordable EV

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Credit: KilowattStation | X

Chevy answered Tesla’s new Standard Model 3 and Model Y offerings with its second-generation Bolt EV, a car that actually appeals to those who were looking for affordability.

Earlier this week, Tesla unveiled the Model 3 and Model Y Standard, two stripped-down versions of the cars of the same name it already offers. The Long Range versions are now labeled as “Premium,” while the Performance configurations stand alone.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

However, many people were sort of upset with what Tesla came to market with. For well over a year, it has been transparent that it was planning to develop affordable models, and this year, it was forced to take action to counter the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit.

The Model 3 Standard starts at $36,990, while the Model Y Standard comes in at $39,990. While these are cheaper than the company’s Premium offerings, many fans said that Tesla missed the mark with the pricing, as these numbers are not necessarily “affordable.”

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At the very least, they will likely miss the mark in helping Tesla regain annual growth rates for its deliveries. Tesla will likely rely on its “unboxed process,” which will be used to manufacture the Cybercab and potentially other affordable models in the future. These will be priced at below $30,000.

Other carmakers are making their moves and were able to undercut Tesla’s new Standard offerings, Chevrolet being one of them.

This week, the company launched its second-gen Bolt EV, which starts at just $28,995.

Here are the full specs:

  • 65 kWh LFP battery
  • 255 miles of range (EPA estimated)
  • Native NACS port for Tesla Supercharger accessibility without an adapter
  • Up to 150 kW charging speed
  • Bidirectional power of 9.6 kW
  • Front-Wheel-Drive
  • 10-80% charging in just 26 minutes
  • No Apple CarPlay or Android Auto
  • SuperCruise capable
  • 11.3″ touchscreen, 11″ digital gauge cluster
  • 16 cubic feet of cargo capacity
  • Other Trims
    • RS – $32,000
    • Base LT – $28,995
  • Deliveries begin in early 2026

Let’s be frank: Tesla fans are unlikely to bat an eye at other OEM offerings. However, first-time EV buyers might be looking for something more price accessible, so vehicles under $30,000 are where they will look first, at least for most people.

If money isn’t an option, people will consider spending a minimum of $37,000 on a new vehicle, especially an EV, as a first-time owner.

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The Bolt EV could be something that does well, especially considering its one of only a handful of EVs that are priced at around $30,000 brand new in the U.S.

The others are:

  • Nissan Leaf S ($28,140)
  • Mini Cooper SE ($30,900)
  • Fiat 500e ($32,500)

While these cars are priced at around $30,000 and are affordable, they each offer minimal range ratings. The Nissan Leaf S and Fiat 500e have just 149 miles, while the Mini Cooper SE has 114 miles.

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Tesla Model S makes TIME’s list of Best Inventions

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla’s flagship sedan, the Model S, has officially been named one of TIME Magazine’s Best Inventions of the 2000s. It joins its sibling, the Model 3, which made the list in 2017.

The Model S is among the most crucial developments in the automotive industry in the last century.

Just as the Ford Model T made its mark on passenger transportation, becoming the first combustion engine vehicle to be successfully developed and marketed at a time when horse and buggy were the preferred mode of transportation, the Model S revolutionized things a step further.

Although it was not the first EV to be developed, the Tesla Model S was the EV that put EVs on the map. In 2012, TIME recognized the Model S as a piece of technology that could truly transform the car industry.

The publication wrote:

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“This electric four-door sedan has the lines of a Jaguar, the ability to zip for 265 miles (426 km) on one charge—that’s the equivalent of 89 m.p.g. (2.6 L/100 km)—and touchscreen controls for everything from GPS navigation to adjusting the suspension.”

Looking back, TIME was right on. The Tesla Model S was truly a marvel for its time, and it, along with the OG 2008 Roadster, can be seen as the first two EVs to push electrification to the mainstream.

As TIME described this year, the Model S “proved to be a game-changing experience for electric vehicles,” and it ended up truly catalyzing things for not only the industry, but Tesla as well.

The Model S acted as a fundraiser of sorts for future vehicles, just as the Model X did. They paved the way for the Model 3 and Model Y to be developed and offered by Tesla at a price point that was more acceptable and accessible to the masses.

The Current State of the Tesla Model S

The Model S contributes to a very small percentage of Tesla sales. The company groups the Model S with the Model X and Cybertruck in its quarterly releases.

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Last year, that grouping sold 85,133 total units, a small percentage of the 1.789 million cars it delivered to customers in 2024.

Things looked to be changing for the Model S and the Model X this year, as Tesla teased some improvements to the two cars with a refresh. However, it was very underwhelming and only included very minor changes.

Lucid CEO shades Tesla Model S: “Nothing has changed in 12 years now”

It appeared as if Tesla was planning to sunset the two cars, and while it has not taken that stance yet, it seems more likely that the company will begin taking any potential options to heart.

CEO Elon Musk said a few years ago that the two cars were only produced due to “sentimental reasons.”

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