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Musk and Straubel talk about the Model 3 ramp and solar power

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9 years ago

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Model 3 outside Gigafactory

At the press conference held in the lobby of the Gigafactory on Wednesday evening, Elon Musk and JB Straubel told the press a great deal about the upcoming Model 3 and the company’s new focus on solar power.

On The Model 3

Musk: “I believe we are on track to meet the half million by 2018. The hardest thing to predict is really the ramp. The ramp looks like an S curve and grows exponentially. Initially the ramp looks really tiny and as you eliminate bottle necks you climb the ramp and you level off. Its always difficult for us to forecast the exact shape of the S curve for the production ramp.

“It’s much easier for us to forecast when things are going to be steady state. So we’ve been pretty good about forecasting 2018, whereas 2017 is much more in the air because we’ll be working through a complex production ramp.”

Straubel: “One of the points is the schedule and ramp up plan for the Gigafactory. With the pull up of the Model 3, and the volume goal to meet a half million cars by 2018, we also have had to pull up the Gigafactory schedule to supply the cells and battery packs for the Model 3.

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“What that means is for the earlier schedule for the Gigafactory, we’ve had to pull that ahead by two years. By 2018 we have to be at 35 gigawatt hours of production to support those Model 3s. You can see the evidence of that around the factory. And Panasonic has done their part to absolutely stay in sync with that as we’ve accelerated the schedule for Model 3.”

On The Size Of The Gigafactory

Musk: “What you’re seeing is only 14% of the size of the factory overall. It’s quite huge. One of the things we discovered as we got more into the Gigafactory design and optimizing what it could do, we thought we could probably achieve about three times the output that was originally planned.

“So we originally expected to make about 35 gigawatt hours at the cell level and about 50 gigawatt hours at the module or pack level. Now we are expecting to do about 150 gigawatt hours in the same volumetric space as the original design.  We can expect to see 10,000 [workers], compared to the 5,000 or 6,000 previous estimate. Maybe in three to four years.

“Things are on track to be able to meet the Model 3 plan next year. We’re really excited about what’s happening here.”

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Powerwall and Powerpack business

Musk: “Stationary storage will be as big as the car business long term. The growth rate will probably be several times what it is for the car business. We roughly assume that it’ll be probably a third of our output. But the growth rate is faster, so then grow to probably match what it is for cars.

Solar Power And  The Utility Grids

A battle is being waged between alternative power solutions and traditional utility companies. SolarCity has recently shut down operations in Nevada, putting 500 people out of work because policies instituted by the Nevada PUC the company feels are unfavorable to rooftop solar. At the press conference Wednesday, Musk made several remarks about the solar power industry and traditional power generation. He was careful to acknowledge alternative energy can cause strains for traditional utilities and grid operators.

Musk: “Solar power production actually helps the grid to a certain point. Only past a certain point does it create issues with the grid. A utility can handle up to 20% of production from solar and that helps the grid because it produces electricity when needed. Solar power peaks in the middle of the day and that’s also when air conditioning is running and businesses are operating, so power production matches usage.

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“But once you exceed the 20% level, then it does become more difficult for utilities to power balance the grid. So I think it makes sense for net metering to be there up through the point where it helps the cost structure of the grid. That’s the logical thing. The utilities in some cases have tried to obfuscate that its actually helpful, and have tried to lower that number of 20% to like 3%.

Tesla And Grid Services

Musk: “I think we’ll get into grid services eventually. The goal of Tesla is to accelerate sustainable energy, so we’re going to take a step back and think about what’s most likely to achieve that goal.

Autopilot

Sandwiched into the discussion was a question about whether Musk has any regrets about how Tesla introduced its Autopilot system, especially after Consumer Reports issued a call for the company to disable the Autosteer function recently.

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Musk: “No, I think we did the right thing. I think we improved people’s safety, not just in fatalities but also injuries. We can see how it actually reduces impact velocity. It can reduce impact from 76 miles per hour to 46 miles an hour. That’s massive.

“We polled Tesla owners, do you want autopilot disabled or not. Not one person wanted it disabled. That’s pretty telling.”

Source and photo credit: Fortune

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Elon Musk reveals Tesla’s next Robotaxi expansion in more ways than one

Tesla Robotaxi is growing in more ways than one. Tesla wants to expand and hopes to reach half the U.S. population by the end of the year.

Published

6 hours ago

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July 24, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed the company’s plans for its next expansion of the Robotaxi in terms of both the geofence in Austin and the platform overall, as it looks to move to new areas outside of Texas.

Tesla launched the Robotaxi platform last month on June 22, and has since expanded both the pool of users and the area that the driverless Model Y vehicles can travel within.

The first expansion of the geofence caught the attention of nearly everyone and became a huge headline as Tesla picked a very interesting shape for the new geofence, resembling male reproductive parts.

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The next expansion will likely absolve this shape. Musk revealed last night that the new geofence will be “well in excess of what competitors are doing,” and it could happen “hopefully in a week or two.”

Musk’s full quote regarding the expansion of the geofence and the timing was:

“As some may have noted, we have already expanded our service area in Austin. It’s bigger and longer, and it’s going to get even bigger and longer. We are expecting to greatly increase the service area to well in excess of what competitors are doing, hopefully in a week or two.”

The expansion will not stop there, either. As Tesla has operated the Robotaxi platform in Austin for the past month, it has been working with regulators in other areas, like California, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, to get the driverless ride-hailing system activated in more U.S. states.

Tesla confirmed that they are in talks with each of these states regarding the potential expansion of Robotaxi.

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Musk added:

“As we get the approvals and prove out safety, we will be launching the autonomous ride-hailing across most of the country. I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year.”

We know that Tesla and Musk have been prone to aggressive and sometimes outlandish timelines regarding self-driving technology specifically. Regulatory approvals could happen by the end of the year in several areas, and working on these large metros is the best way to reach half of the U.S. population.

Tesla said its expansion of the geofence in Austin is conservative and controlled due to its obsession with safety, even admitting at one point during the Earnings Call that they are being “paranoid.” Expanding the geofence is necessary, but Tesla realizes any significant mistake by Robotaxi could take it back to square one.

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Tesla warns customers of incentive strategy on EVs as tax credit nears end

If you’re thinking of buying a Tesla, the time to order is now, the company claimed.

Published

8 hours ago

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July 24, 2025

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has warned customers about its incentive strategy for qualifying electric vehicles, as the days of both the $7,500 EV tax credit for new EVs and the $4,000 credit for used EVs are coming to a close.

Both tax credits, which impact some of the vehicles in the Tesla lineup, are set to be eliminated at the end of Q3. The phase out of these consumer credits was always in the plans of the Trump Administration, but now we’re in the final quarter of their existence.

As a result, EV companies are scrambling to see how they can reduce costs or make their vehicles more affordable for customers. The $7,500 will price many consumers out of many EVs on the market, and Tesla is not immune to that.

However, Tesla has made a significant push into Q3 deliveries, rolling out numerous incentives to customers, including 0% APR on select purchases, lease deals, free upgrades on certain inventory units, and more.

The extensive list of incentives on Tesla vehicles in the quarter will not get any longer, either. During last night’s Tesla Earnings Call for the second quarter of 2025, company executives stated that their intention for these incentives was to encourage customers to place orders early in the quarter.

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Tesla will only be able to apply the $7,500 credit with deliveries that occur before the end of September. Even if an order is placed before then, delivery must be completed by September 31 to receive the tax credit.

CFO Vaibhav Taneja confirmed that the incentives for the quarter are already out and encouraged customers to place an order sooner rather than later:

“Given the abrupt change, we have a limited supply of vehicles in the US this quarter. As we are already within lead times to order parts for cars, we have rolled out all our planned incentives already and will start pairing them back as we start to sell. If you are in the US and looking to buy a car, let’s roll now as we may not be able to guarantee delivery for orders placed in the later part of August and beyond.”

The loss of the incentives will impact every EV maker in the United States. Tesla has a plan moving forward, and it said last night that its affordable models would be rolled out in Q4, as introducing these cars any earlier could have detrimental effects on Model 3 and Model Y sales.

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Tesla Model Y awarded Top Safety Pick+ from IIHS

The new Model Y continues to impress with this new award.

Published

10 hours ago

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July 24, 2025

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(Credit: Tesla)

The 2025 Tesla Model Y was one of two midsize luxury SUVs to receive the Top Safety Pick+ award from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS).

To qualify for the IIHS’s Top Safety Pick+ or even the lower-tier Top Safety Pick label, vehicles need good ratings in the small overlap front and side crash tests, an acceptable or good rating in the pedestrian front crash prevention evaluation, and acceptable or good ratings for headlights across all trim levels.

The difference between the two labels is that an “Acceptable” rating in the moderate overlap front test will get a car the Top Safety Pick rating, but a “Good” rating in this category will win the elusive Top Safety Pick+ category.

The 2025 Model Y, codenamed “Juniper” internally by Tesla, was released in the United States earlier this year and received the top rating across each of the categories, automatically qualifying it for the Top Safety Pick+ label:

Other vehicles in Tesla’s lineup have extraordinary marks in crash testing according to other agencies, like the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), but there are reasons those cars are not on the IIHS lists.

In 2024, we reported that the IIHS had evaluated some Tesla vehicles for the necessary tests to achieve these marks. Joe Young of the agency told us that the Model 3, for example, was not featured on either the Top Safety Pick or Top Safety Pick+ lists because the vehicle had several missing tests.

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Here’s why the Tesla Model 3 wasn’t an IIHS Top Safety Pick+, and why it could be soon

This is not to say those other Tesla vehicles would not perform well. The Cybertruck performed better than any pickup has ever in NHTSA crash testing assessments.

The Model Y is Tesla’s most popular vehicle and was the best-selling car in the world over the past two years. Tesla’s intense focus on safety continues to show that this priority goes into every decision the company makes regarding design and engineering. This focus has continued to pay dividends as some real-world crashes save the lives of those inside the cars.

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