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Investor's Corner

Rivian delivers strong Q2 Earnings, raises production guidance for 2023

Credit: Rivian

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Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) had a strong second-quarter earnings report and is raising its production guidance for 2023, now expecting to build 2,000 more vehicles than it previously forecasted.

Rivian reported earnings on Tuesday and beat expectations in both adjusted loss per share ($1.08 reported vs. $1.41 expected) and revenue ($1.12B reported vs. $1B expected).

CEO RJ Scaringe said:

“Our second quarter results reflect our continued focus on cost efficiency as we accelerate the drive towards profitability. We have achieved meaningful reductions in both R1 and EDV vehicle unit cost across the key components, including material costs, overhead and logistics. It was a strong quarter, and we remain focused on ramping production, driving cost efficiencies, developing future technologies, and enhancing the customer experience.”

Rivian still expects to reach a gross profit sometime next year.

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In July, the automaker said it delivered 12,640 units, a substantial improvement from the 7,946 vehicles it reported in Q1.

Rivian announces deliveries of 12,640 EVs in Q2, beating expectations

The biggest metric for Rivian during this quarter was its gross profit per vehicle, which improved by $35,000 from a loss of $67,329 to a loss of $32,595. The company said these changes were able to be achieved through “our continued efforts to drive material cost reductions through commercial negotiations and engineering design change, as well as slightly scaled production.

Earlier this year, Rivian made a 6 percent reduction in staff and sold $1.3 billion in convertible notes to solidify its financial position as it continues to seek more stable operations.

Analysts believe the improvement from Q1 is a tell-tale sign that Rivian is making drastic improvements in its operations.

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Dan Ives said in a note last month that Rivian was full of excuses early, but after reporting strong deliveries for Q2, things seemed to be trending in the right direction:

“Production coming out of the gate — it was excuses. It was one step forward, two steps back for four or five quarters. Now [they] finally turned the corner, and I think the worst is in the rearview mirror.”

Rivian stock is down 7 percent today at 10:18 AM on the East Coast.

Disclosure: I am not a RIVN Shareholder.

Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge

Tesla’s future lies beyond cars—with robotaxis, humanoid bots & AI-driven factories. Cathie Wood predicts a 9x surge in 5 years.

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Cathie Wood shared that Tesla is her top stock pick. During Steven Bartlett’s podcast “The Diary Of A CEO,” the Ark Invest founder highlighted Tesla’s innovative edge, citing its convergence of robotics, energy storage, and AI.

“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI,” Wood said of Tesla. She emphasized the company’s potential beyond its current offerings, particularly with its Optimus robots.

“And it’s not stopping with robotaxis; there’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” she added.

In June 2024, Ark Invest issued a $2,600 price target for Tesla, which Wood reaffirmed in a March Bloomberg interview, projecting the stock to reach this level within five years. She told Bartlett that Tesla’s Optimus robots would drive productivity gains and create new revenue streams.

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Elon Musk echoed Wood’s optimism in a CNBC interview last month.

“We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible,” Musk said.

Tesla’s stock has faced volatility lately, hitting a peak closing price of $479 in December after President Donald Trump’s election win. However, Musk’s involvement with the White House DOGE office triggered protests and boycotts, contributing to a stock decline of over 40% from mid-December highs by March.

The volatility in Tesla stock alarmed investors, who urged Musk to refocus on the company. In a May earnings call, Musk responded, stating he would be “scaling down his involvement with DOGE to focus on Tesla.” Through it all, Cathie Wood and Ark Invest maintained their faith in Tesla. Wood, in particular, predicted that the “brand damage” Tesla experienced earlier this year would not be long term.

Despite recent fluctuations, Wood’s confidence in Tesla underscores its potential to redefine industries through AI and robotics. As Musk shifts his focus back to Tesla, the company’s advancements in Optimus and other innovations could drive it toward Wood’s ambitious $2,600 target, positioning Tesla as a leader in the evolving tech landscape.

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Investor's Corner

Goldman Sachs reduces Tesla price target to $285

Despite Goldman Sach’s NASDAQ: TSLA price cut to $285, Tesla boasts $95.7B in revenue & nearly $1T market cap.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Goldman Sachs analysts cut Tesla’s price target to $285 from $295, maintaining a Neutral rating.

The adjustment reflects weaker sales performance across key markets, with Tesla shares trading at $284.70, down nearly 18% in the past week. The analysts pointed to declining sales data in the United States, Europe, and China as the primary driver for the revised outlook. In the U.S., Tesla’s quarter-to-date deliveries through May fell mid-teens year-over-year, according to Wards and Motor Intelligence.

In Europe, April registrations plummeted 50% year-over-year, with May showing a mid-20% decline, per industry data. Meanwhile, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported a 20% year-over-year drop in May, despite a 5.5% sequential increase from April. Consumer surveys from HundredX and Morning Consult also shaped Goldman Sachs’ lowered delivery and EPS forecasts.

Goldman Sachs now projects Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries to range between 335,000 and 395,000 vehicles, with a base case of 365,000, down from a prior estimate of 410,000 and below the Visible Alpha Consensus of 417,000. Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s financials remain strong, with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a $917 billion market capitalization.

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Regionally, Tesla’s challenges are stark. In Germany, the German road traffic agency KBA reported Tesla’s May sales dropped 36.2% year-over-year, despite a 44.9% surge in overall electric vehicle registrations. Tesla’s sales fell 29% last month in Spain, according to the ANFAC industry group. These declines highlight shifting consumer preferences amid growing competition.

On a positive note, Tesla is making strategic moves. The Model 3 and Model Y are part of a Chinese government campaign to boost rural sales, potentially mitigating losses. Piper Sandler analysts reiterated an Overweight rating, emphasizing Tesla’s supply chain strategy.

Alexander Potter stated, “Thanks to vertical integration, Tesla is the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”

As Tesla navigates these delivery challenges, its focus on innovation and supply chain resilience could help it maintain its edge in the electric vehicle market despite short-term hurdles.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk explains Tesla’s domestic battery strategy

Elon Musk responded to a new note from an analyst that highlighted Tesla’s battery strategy.

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Elon Musk giving YouTube tech reviewer Marques Brownlee a tour of the Fremont factory. (Credit: MKBHD/YouTube)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk explained the automaker’s strategy for building batteries from top to bottom in a domestic setting as the company continues to alleviate its reliance on Chinese materials, something other companies are too dependent on.

With the Trump Administration, it is no secret that the prioritization of U.S.-built products, including sourcing most of the materials from American companies, is at the forefront of its strategy.

The goal is to become less dependent on foreign products, which would, in theory, bolster the U.S. economy by creating more jobs and having less reliance on foreign markets, especially China, to manufacture the key parts of things like cars and tech.

In a note from Alexander Potter, an analyst for the firm Piper Sandler, Tesla’s strategy regarding batteries specifically is broken down.

Potter says Tesla is “the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”

He continues:

“Eventually, Tesla will be making its own cathode active materials, refining its own lithium, building its own anodes, coating its own electrodes, assembling its own cells, and selling its own cars; No other US company can make similar claims.”

Musk, who spent time within the Trump White House through his work with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), said that Tesla is doing the “important” work of localizing supply chains as the risks that come with being too dependent on foreign entities could be detrimental to a company, especially one that utilizes many parts and supplies that are manufactured mostly in China.

Tesla has done a lot of work to source and even manufacture its own batteries within the United States, a project that has been in progress for several years but will pay dividends in the end.

According to a 2023 Nikkei analysis, Tesla’s battery material suppliers were dominated by Chinese companies. At the time, a whopping 39 percent of the company’s cell materials came from Chinese companies.

This number is decreasing as it operates its own in-house cell and material production projects, like its lithium refinery in Texas.

It also wants to utilize battery manufacturers that have plans to build cells in the U.S.

Panasonic, for example, is building a facility in Kansas that will help Tesla utilize domestically-manufactured cells for its cars.

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