News
SpaceX Crew Dragon, four astronauts set for brief flight around the space station
To set the stage for another Dragon launch just a few weeks from now, NASA astronauts are preparing to board a SpaceX Crew Dragon for a brief flight around the International Space Station (ISS).
Orbiting roughly 400 km (250 mi) above the Earth’s surface, the ISS and its crew of seven international astronauts have just two docking ports available to manage a growing influx of SpaceX Crew and Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft, as well as Boeing’s chronically delayed Starliner. While Starliner hasn’t flown since a near-catastrophic orbital debut in December 2019 and isn’t likely to reattempt that uncrewed flight test until the second half of 2021, SpaceX is in the exact opposite position as it prepares to sustain an unprecedented Dragon launch cadence.
One challenge of that cadence ramp – space station port logistics and availability – is now becoming clear as SpaceX nears its next Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launch.
All launched on SpaceX Cargo Dragons, including a third destroyed during Falcon 9’s CRS-7 launch failure, the International Space Station has just two perpendicular International Docking Adapter (IDA) ports – one facing space and the other facing Earth. Regardless of CRS-7’s lost port, that IDA duo was always NASA’s plan.
The ISS requires the use of a huge, robotic arm (Canadarm2) to unload unpressurized cargo from spacecraft and that arm doesn’t have the mobility to access vehicles docked to the Earth-facing IDA port, meaning that cargo spacecraft with IDA ports can really only dock on the space-facing port. Cargo Dragon 2’s use of IDA docking and the Cygnus spacecraft’s use of berthing thankfully mean that neither NASA Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) vehicle is at risk of a traffic jam.
Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC) is set to debut the cargo variant of its Dream Chaser spaceplane as early as 2022 for annual launches and will need to share that same lone IDA port with Cargo Dragon for its (approximately) annual resupply missions. More importantly, though, Crew Dragon and Boeing’s Starliner both require the use of one of those two IDA ports to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. Both spacecraft are also expected to leave with the same crew that launched on them, meaning that both will spend a fully six or so months in orbit on each crew rotation mission.
In general, NASA also plans to overlap all Commercial Crew Program (CCP) astronaut launches, meaning that Crew Dragon will wait for Starliner to arrive (and vice versa) before departing the ISS with its four-astronaut crew. Those use-cases and safety requirements combine to create strict, complex scheduling challenges that mean a Cargo Dragon or Dream Chaser can never be docked to the ISS during a crew handover, while also adding significant constraints to any planned private astronaut (tourist) missions to the station – of which SpaceX already has at least one.
In the meantime, though Boeing’s Starliner is now at least 18 months behind SpaceX’s Crew Dragon on the path to launching NASA astronauts to and from the ISS, SpaceX is picking up the slack to the extent that station ‘traffic’ conditions are practically unaffected. Whereas NASA’s nominal plan was to alternate between its two redundant Commercial Crew providers before Boeing ran into huge delays, SpaceX is on track to launch Crew Dragon’s Crew-2 astronaut ferry mission as early as April 22nd.
The flight-proven Demo-2 Dragon will then rendezvous with the ISS while Crew-1’s Dragon and four astronauts are still aboard the station. Crew-1 and Crew-2 will spend about a week together before the former group boards their Dragon and heads for home. As few as six or so weeks later, SpaceX could launch its second Cargo Dragon 2 resupply mission, known as CRS-22. – This morning’s “port relocation,” which will see the Crew-1 Dragon will ‘relocate’ from the station’s Earth-facing IDA to its space-facing port, is thus necessary to free up that port for Cargo Dragon’s arrival when Crew-1 departs.
Barring major delays, SpaceX is currently on track to complete another two Crew and Cargo Dragon launches in 2-3 months, marking four Dragon missions in seven months if all goes to plan. Another three Dragon missions are firmly scheduled in 2021, potentially making for seven Dragon launches in 11-12 months if schedules hold. SpaceX’s current record – technically achieved twice in 2018 and 2019 – is five orbital Dragon missions in 12 months.
Tune in below around 6am EDT (UTC-4) to catch Crew Dragon C207’s brief 46-minute jaunt around the International Space Station (ISS) – a first for an American crewed spacecraft of any kind.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
