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SpaceX and Boeing's crewed capsule race heats up with Starliner's Friday test flight
The first week of December kicked off a flurry of productivity for NASA Commercial Crew Program partners SpaceX and Boeing. Ahead of crewed astronaut flight in 2020, both partners are working toward the completion of integral test flights of the two crew capsules that will carry astronauts to orbit from American soil for the first time since 2011.
While SpaceX nailed down a firm targeted launch date for the upcoming in-flight abort (IFA) test of its Crew Dragon capsule, Boeing and launch provider United Launch Alliance (ULA) worked to complete what is known as an Integrated Day of Launch Test (IDOLT) – a standard procedure ahead of human-rated spaceflight.
This type of rehearsal was routinely completed during the space shuttle era – then referred to as Terminal Countdown Demonstration Tests. The IDOLT was a final major step ahead of the orbital flight test (OFT) of the Atlas V and Boeing Starliner capsule. The upcoming flight test will closely reflect procedures completed by SpaceX with the Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon capsule during its version of the orbital flight test referred to as Demonstration Mission – 1 which previously occurred in March of 2019.
Earlier in the week, ULA rolled out its mighty Atlas V rocket topped off with the Starliner crew capsule from the Vertical Integration Facility to the Space Launch Complex – 41 launchpad at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Once at the launchpad, the Crew Access Arm featuring a “white room” at the end that secures to the Starliner capsule to allow astronaut entrance was swung to the capsule for the very first time.
On Wednesday, December 4th, ULA and Boeing teams prepared to support the IDOLT, while SpaceX teams worked nearby at Space Launch Complex – 40 to support the CRS-19 resupply mission to the International Space Station. The simultaneous preparations resulted in the unique opportunity to view both rockets slated to support crewed astronaut flights in 2020 on launchpads and essentially prepared for flight.
While SpaceX ultimately successfully launched and landed a brand new Falcon 9 booster during the CRS-19 mission on Thursday, December 5th, a scrubbed attempt meant a one-day delay of launch which in turn resulted in a one-day delay for Boeing and ULA’s IDOLT and wet dress rehearsal (WDR).
The scrubbed launch essentially tied up range operations of the 45th Space Wing so that the area around the active launch pads – air, sea, and land – could not be secured for both events to take place on the same day. As the CRS-19 launch was an active operation for both SpaceX and NASA, it took precedence over ULA and Boeing’s rehearsal. Instead, Thursday was used to complete other necessary vehicle testing by Boeing and ULA.
Friday’s IDOLT ahead of Starliner’s flight debut for the OFT was a coordinated effort by NASA, Boeing, and ULA teams in multiple locations around the country.
The teams went through actual fueling procedures the Atlas V rocket and Centaur upper stage. Atlas V was filled with a type of rocket-grade kerosene propellant, RP-1, on Wednesday ahead of the IDOLT. The Centaur upper stage fully filled with cryogenic propellants – liquid oxygen (LOx) and liquid hydrogen.
Once fueling had completed Boeing’s “Blue Team” entered the pad to begin their synchronized rehearsal portion of the launch day sequence to prepare and secure the Starliner capsule and astronauts flying aboard.
Once the Blue Team completed all tasks and were evacuated from the pad, flight controllers from NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX gave the “GO” command and proceeded with terminal count until reaching T minus-0 at which point the test concluded. The cryogenic propellants were drained and the vehicle was safed to be safely returned to the Vertical Integration Facility where final steps will be taken to prepare for launch.
The next time the teams will all work together in such coordinated fashion this will be on the day of launch. In mid-2020 the teams are expected to work together once again to support the Crewed Flight Test (CFT) which will send NASA astronauts Col. Mike Fincke, Nicole Mann, and Christopher Ferguson.
Until then, however, they will have to settle for the uncrewed test flight. According to ULA president and chief executive officer, Tory Bruno, post-WDR data evaluation and joint flight readiness review conducted by all teams involved are proceeding smoothly. Should all go to plan, the Atlas V and Boeing Starliner OFT will launch at 6:36 am EST on Friday, December 20th.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX to launch military missile tracking satellites through new Space Force contract
SpaceX wins a $178.5M Space Force contract to launch missile tracking satellites starting in 2027.
The U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX a $178.5 million task order on April 1, 2026 to launch missile tracking satellites for the Space Development Agency. The contract, designated SDA-4, covers two Falcon 9 launches beginning in Q3 2027, one from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida and one from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The satellites, built by Sierra Space, are designed to bolster the nation’s ability to detect and track missile threats from orbit.
The award falls under the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1 program, which Space Force uses to move payloads to orbit on faster timelines and at more competitive prices. “Our Lane 1 contract affords us the flexibility to deliver satellites for our customers, like SDA, more easily and faster than ever before to all the orbits our satellites need to reach,” said Col. Matt Flahive, SSC’s system program director for Launch Acquisition, in the official press release.
SpaceX is quietly becoming the U.S. Military’s only reliable rocket
The SDA-4 contract is the latest in a long string of national security wins for SpaceX. As Teslarati reported last month, the Space Force recently shifted a GPS III satellite launch from ULA’s Vulcan rocket to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 after a significant Vulcan booster anomaly grounded ULA’s military missions indefinitely. That move made it four consecutive GPS III satellites transferred to SpaceX after contracts were originally awarded to its competitor.
This didn’t come without a fight and dates back years. SpaceX originally had to sue the Air Force in 2014 for the right to compete for national security launches, at a time when United Launch Alliance held a near monopoly on the market. Since then, the company has steadily displaced ULA as the dominant provider, and last year the Space Force confirmed SpaceX would handle approximately 60 percent of all Phase 3 launches through 2032, worth close to $6 billion.
With missile defense satellites now part of its launch manifest alongside GPS, communications, and reconnaissance payloads, SpaceX is giving hungry investors something to chew on before its imminent IPO.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Q1 delivery figures show Elon Musk was right
On the surface, the numbers reflect a mature EV market facing competition, softening demand, and the loss of certain incentives. Yet they also quietly validate a prediction Elon Musk has repeated for years: Tesla’s traditional auto business is becoming far less central to the company’s future.
Tesla reported its Q1 delivery figures on Thursday, and the figures — solid but unspectacular — show that CEO Elon Musk was right about what the company’s most important production and division would be.
We are seeing that shift occur in real time.
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, according to the company’s official report released April 2.
The figure represents modest year-over-year growth of roughly 6 percent from Q1 2025’s 336,681 deliveries but a sharp sequential drop from Q4 2025’s 418,227. Production reached 408,386 vehicles, while energy storage deployments hit 8.8 GWh.
On the surface, the numbers reflect a mature EV market facing competition, softening demand, and the loss of certain incentives. Yet they also quietly validate a prediction Elon Musk has repeated for years: Tesla’s traditional auto business is becoming far less central to the company’s future.
Musk has long argued that vehicles alone will not define Tesla’s value.
Optimus Will Be Tesla’s Big Thing
In September 2025, Musk stated bluntly on X that “~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus,” the company’s humanoid robot.
He has described Optimus as potentially “more significant than the vehicle business over time.” Those comments were not abstract futurism. In January 2026, during the Q4 2025 earnings call, Musk announced the end of Model S and X production, framing it as an “honorable discharge,” he called it.
Those are the biggest factors.
~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 1, 2025
The Fremont factory space, once dedicated to those flagship sedans, is being converted into an Optimus manufacturing line, with a long-term target of one million robots per year from that single facility alone.
The Q1 2026 numbers arrive at precisely the moment this strategic pivot is accelerating. Model 3 and Y deliveries totaled 341,893 units, while “other models” (including Cybertruck, Semi, and the final wave of S/X) added 16,130.
Growth is no longer explosive because Tesla is no longer chasing volume at all costs. Instead, the company is reallocating capital and factory floor space toward autonomy, energy storage, and robotics, businesses Musk believes will command far higher margins and enterprise value than incremental car sales.
Delivery Hits and Misses are Becoming Less Important
Wall Street’s pre-release consensus had pegged deliveries near 365,000. Coming in below that estimate might have rattled investors focused solely on automotive metrics. Yet Musk’s thesis has never been about maximizing quarterly vehicle shipments.
Tesla, he has insisted, “has never been valued strictly as a car company.”
The modest Q1 auto performance, paired with the deliberate wind-down of legacy programs and the ramp of Optimus, underscores that point. While EV demand stabilizes, Tesla is building the infrastructure for Robotaxis and humanoid robots that could dwarf today’s car business.
The future is here, and it is happening. It’s funny to think about how quickly Tesla was able to disrupt the traditional automotive business and force many car companies to show their hand. But just as fast as Tesla disrupted that, it is now moving to disrupt its own operation.
Cars, once the only recognizable and widely-known division of Tesla, is now becoming a background effort, slowly being overtaken by the company’s ambitions to dominate AI, autonomy, and robotics for years to come.
Critics may still view the shift as risky or premature. But the Q1 figures, solid but unspectacular in the auto segment, illustrate exactly what Musk has been signaling: the era when Tesla’s valuation rose and fell with every Model Y delivery is ending.
The company’s long-term bet is on AI-driven products that turn vehicles into high-margin robotaxis and factories into robot foundries. Thursday’s delivery report did not just meet the market’s tempered expectations; it proved Elon Musk was right all along.
The car business, once everything, is quietly becoming an important piece of a much larger puzzle.
Investor's Corner
Tesla reports Q1 deliveries, missing expectations slightly
The figure, however, fell short of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 365,645 units, reflecting ongoing headwinds in the global EV market.
Tesla reported deliveries for the first quarter of 2026 today, missing expectations set by Wall Street analysts slightly as the company aims to have a massive year in terms of sales, along with other projects.
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 6.3 percent increase from 336,681 vehicles in Q1 2025.
The figure, however, fell short of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 365,645 units, reflecting ongoing headwinds in the global EV market. Production reached approximately 362,000 vehicles, with Model 3 and Model Y accounting for the vast majority. The results come as Tesla navigates softening demand, intensifying competition in China and Europe, and the expiration of key U.S. federal tax incentives.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026
Tesla also reported record energy deployments of 8.8 GWh
Wall Street had delivery consensus estimates of 365,645 pic.twitter.com/EVNAu5L3UT
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 2, 2026
Energy storage deployments provided a bright spot, hitting a record 8.8 GWh in Q1. This underscores the accelerating momentum in Tesla’s energy segment, which has become a critical growth driver even as automotive volumes stabilize.
Year-over-year, the energy business continues to outpace vehicle sales, with analysts noting strong backlog demand for Megapack systems amid rising grid-scale needs for renewables and AI data centers.
Looking ahead, analysts project full-year 2026 vehicle deliveries in the range of 1.69 million units—a modest 3-5% rise from roughly 1.64 million in 2025.
Growth is expected to accelerate in the second half as production ramps and new incentives emerge in select markets. However, risks remain: persistent high interest rates, price competition from legacy automakers and Chinese EV makers, and potential margin pressure could cap upside.
Tesla has not issued official full-year guidance, but executives have signaled confidence in sequential quarterly improvements driven by cost reductions and refreshed lineups.
By the end of 2026, Tesla plans several major product launches to reignite momentum. The refreshed Model Y, including a new 7-seater variant already rolling out in select markets, is expected to boost family-oriented sales with updated styling, efficiency gains, and interior enhancements.
Autonomous ambitions remain central to Tesla’s mission, and that’s where the vast majority of the attention has been put. Volume production of the Cybercab (Robotaxi) is targeted to begin ramping in 2026, potentially unlocking new revenue streams through unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) deployment.
A next-generation affordable EV platform, possibly under $30,000, is also in advanced planning stages for 2026 or 2027 introduction. On the energy front, the Megapack 3 and larger Megablock systems will drive further deployment scale.
While Q1 highlights transitional challenges in autos, Tesla’s diversified roadmap, spanning refreshed consumer vehicles, commercial trucks, Robotaxis, and explosive energy growth, positions the company for a stronger second half and beyond. Investors will watch Q2 closely for signs of sustained recovery, especially with new vehicles potentially on the horizon.
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