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SpaceX and Boeing's crewed capsule race heats up with Starliner's Friday test flight
The first week of December kicked off a flurry of productivity for NASA Commercial Crew Program partners SpaceX and Boeing. Ahead of crewed astronaut flight in 2020, both partners are working toward the completion of integral test flights of the two crew capsules that will carry astronauts to orbit from American soil for the first time since 2011.
While SpaceX nailed down a firm targeted launch date for the upcoming in-flight abort (IFA) test of its Crew Dragon capsule, Boeing and launch provider United Launch Alliance (ULA) worked to complete what is known as an Integrated Day of Launch Test (IDOLT) – a standard procedure ahead of human-rated spaceflight.
This type of rehearsal was routinely completed during the space shuttle era – then referred to as Terminal Countdown Demonstration Tests. The IDOLT was a final major step ahead of the orbital flight test (OFT) of the Atlas V and Boeing Starliner capsule. The upcoming flight test will closely reflect procedures completed by SpaceX with the Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon capsule during its version of the orbital flight test referred to as Demonstration Mission – 1 which previously occurred in March of 2019.
Earlier in the week, ULA rolled out its mighty Atlas V rocket topped off with the Starliner crew capsule from the Vertical Integration Facility to the Space Launch Complex – 41 launchpad at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Once at the launchpad, the Crew Access Arm featuring a “white room” at the end that secures to the Starliner capsule to allow astronaut entrance was swung to the capsule for the very first time.
On Wednesday, December 4th, ULA and Boeing teams prepared to support the IDOLT, while SpaceX teams worked nearby at Space Launch Complex – 40 to support the CRS-19 resupply mission to the International Space Station. The simultaneous preparations resulted in the unique opportunity to view both rockets slated to support crewed astronaut flights in 2020 on launchpads and essentially prepared for flight.
While SpaceX ultimately successfully launched and landed a brand new Falcon 9 booster during the CRS-19 mission on Thursday, December 5th, a scrubbed attempt meant a one-day delay of launch which in turn resulted in a one-day delay for Boeing and ULA’s IDOLT and wet dress rehearsal (WDR).
The scrubbed launch essentially tied up range operations of the 45th Space Wing so that the area around the active launch pads – air, sea, and land – could not be secured for both events to take place on the same day. As the CRS-19 launch was an active operation for both SpaceX and NASA, it took precedence over ULA and Boeing’s rehearsal. Instead, Thursday was used to complete other necessary vehicle testing by Boeing and ULA.
Friday’s IDOLT ahead of Starliner’s flight debut for the OFT was a coordinated effort by NASA, Boeing, and ULA teams in multiple locations around the country.
The teams went through actual fueling procedures the Atlas V rocket and Centaur upper stage. Atlas V was filled with a type of rocket-grade kerosene propellant, RP-1, on Wednesday ahead of the IDOLT. The Centaur upper stage fully filled with cryogenic propellants – liquid oxygen (LOx) and liquid hydrogen.
Once fueling had completed Boeing’s “Blue Team” entered the pad to begin their synchronized rehearsal portion of the launch day sequence to prepare and secure the Starliner capsule and astronauts flying aboard.
Once the Blue Team completed all tasks and were evacuated from the pad, flight controllers from NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX gave the “GO” command and proceeded with terminal count until reaching T minus-0 at which point the test concluded. The cryogenic propellants were drained and the vehicle was safed to be safely returned to the Vertical Integration Facility where final steps will be taken to prepare for launch.
The next time the teams will all work together in such coordinated fashion this will be on the day of launch. In mid-2020 the teams are expected to work together once again to support the Crewed Flight Test (CFT) which will send NASA astronauts Col. Mike Fincke, Nicole Mann, and Christopher Ferguson.
Until then, however, they will have to settle for the uncrewed test flight. According to ULA president and chief executive officer, Tory Bruno, post-WDR data evaluation and joint flight readiness review conducted by all teams involved are proceeding smoothly. Should all go to plan, the Atlas V and Boeing Starliner OFT will launch at 6:36 am EST on Friday, December 20th.
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Tesla released what analysts believe the company will report in terms of deliveries and energy deployments for Q2, but the figures seem to confirm a long-standing theory on the company’s vehicle division.
For years, Tesla was just looked at as a car company. Now that it has established itself as a powerhouse in energy, AI, and tech as a whole, the company is now less hellbent on achieving quarterly growth, on a sequential basis, at least from a major standpoint.
Tesla topped out its annual deliveries in 2023 at 1.81 million, and in the two years since, the company has reported a decrease in deliveries for the entire 12-month term both times.
With Tesla delivering 358,023 cars in Q1, a 6.3 percent increase over Q1 2025, but falling short of Wall Street expectations at 365,000-370,000 units, the narrative around vehicle deliveries and their importance continued to change earlier this year. Some might say it is convenient, but others might say it is the typical evolution of a company that continues to change over time.
For Q2, Tesla’s delivery consensus estimates sit at 406,024 units, analysts believe. They were surveyed from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, BMP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co., HSBC, and William Blair.
Credit: Tesla
Tesla is also expected to report deployments of 13.8 GWh this quarter.
The change to Tesla’s overall narrative now leans less on vehicle deliveries and more on its other projects. Most notably, Tesla’s Robotaxi project has taken the priority over most of its other business ventures, and investors and the public are more concerned about the deployment of vehicles into the fleet, the operation of a driverless ride-hailing service, Cybercab production and operation, and expansion into new cities.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
This big narrative switch happened when Tesla indicated it was looking at making transportation a service by launching a ride-hailing service that will operate using Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite. Once unsupervised operation begins, Robotaxi could be a new way for people to get around, all without a driver in their car.
Instead, they will rely on the billions of miles Tesla has accumulated from its real-world fleet.
It is important to note that Tesla remains significant in the automotive sector, and deliveries must continue as they have for years. Tesla still has a strong automotive business and needs to execute further on all facets to keep its investors happy.
Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.
Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.
Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.
Fiorani said:
“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”
Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.
Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:
Looks like another Tesla Model Y L was spotted in the U.S.! pic.twitter.com/jhsdkcN5Go
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.
The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.
Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.
The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.
In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.
This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.
In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.
🚨 A Tesla competitor goes down
Polestar will no longer sell new vehicles in the United States starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied the brand authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which restricts the sale of cars with software and… pic.twitter.com/TrwnQeoiES
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 25, 2026
Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.
Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.
The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.
While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.
Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.
Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:
Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns
The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.
By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.
For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.
Tesla Q2 delivery consensus confirms this long-standing theory
Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.
