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SpaceX drone ship dodges high seas en route to first rocket landing of 2020
SpaceX has delayed the first orbital launch of the new year by a handful of days to allow both Falcon 9 and the drone ship it’s scheduled to land on the opportunity to dodge bad weather on the Florida coast and out in the Atlantic Ocean.
Originally scheduled to launch no earlier than December 30th, SpaceX delayed its next mission – Starlink-2 – to January 3rd for unknown reasons. Weather on the new date was unfortunately forecast to be terrible at SpaceX’s LC-40 launch pad and had a 60% chance of scrubbing the mission. SpaceX must have been at least as concerned about conditions for drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) in the Atlantic Ocean, as the company ultimately skipped over a 90%-GO backup window on January 4th for the latest launch target – January 6th.
Historically, only a few Falcon launches have been delayed for booster recovery purposes, but it’s been apparent that – while incredibly sturdy – some of the tacked-on equipment installed on SpaceX’s drone ships (modified barges) can be easily damaged by high seas. Perhaps more importantly, high seas (and thus a pitching drone ship deck) can make booster landings much riskier. Bad luck could easily cause a booster to cut off its landing burn at exactly sea level but still be a dozen or more feet above the drone ship’s deck if it’s coincidentally in the trough of a big swell, potentially destroying or damaging the rocket.
Ultimately, on missions where SpaceX has nothing to lose by delaying the launch, the company now puts a successful booster recovery much higher on its list of priorities. As recently as March 2018, SpaceX intentionally expended a new Falcon 9 booster because ocean conditions would have been extremely risky to OCISLY and crew and the company (or customer) had no interest in delaying the launch further to wait for calmer seas.
By all appearances, that is – for the most part – no longer the case. SpaceX would likely expend a rocket for a few days of schedule for high-priority customers like the USAF and especially NASA, where even a few days of delays could trigger several years of delays to quite literally wait for the planets to realign. It has and will continue to require a significant culture shift in the market for launch but SpaceX is clearly changing those norms and expectations bit by bit, to the point that the company was recently willing to delay Cargo Dragon launches for NASA to ensure that the mission’s Falcon 9 booster the best possible chance of recovery.
-->For an internal Starlink launch, delaying the mission to prevent drone ship damage and ensure Falcon 9 recovery is thus an absolute no-brainer. Starlink-2 is also partially unique because it will mark the second time a Falcon 9 booster launches for the fourth time, following on the footsteps of B1048 after it became the first booster to launch four times during SpaceX’s November 2019 Starlink-1 mission.
B1048 thus became SpaceX’s lone pathfinder for Falcon 9 booster reusability, hopefully providing excellent insight and some unequivocal physical data to determine the rocket’s health and readiness for a 5th launch. Still, even though the sample sizes available to even the most prolific orbital launch vehicles would make any statistician cringe, it’s safe to say that two data points are better than one, and B1049 – scheduled to launch for the fourth time on Starlink-2 – would thus be quite valuable to SpaceX’s recovery engineers and technicians.
Only one additional Falcon 9 booster – B1056 – has already flown three missions, meaning that SpaceX will – at best – likely have to suffice with three data points (B1048, B1049, B1056) before moving onto the next reusability milestone – launching the same booster five times. Ultimately, every time SpaceX pushes that envelope and demonstrates that Falcon boosters can be definitively reused 3 or 4 or 5 times, the company multiplies the number of launches its fleet of booster can perform by a factor of two.
For, say, the eight flightworthy boosters in SpaceX’s existing fleet, proving that a 4th reuse is possible will ultimately allow the company to squeeze an additional seven launches from existing hardware with almost zero capital investment. For now, the fourth flight of Falcon 9 boosters will remain cutting edge, but with more than three-dozen launches planned in 2020, it’s all but guaranteed that SpaceX will push the envelope of reusability like never before in the coming months.
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News
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Tesla AI4 owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season.
Tesla quietly rolled out a free Full Self-Driving (Supervised) trial for roughly 1.5 million HW4 owners in North America who never bought the package, and the timing could very well be genius.
As it turns out, the trial doesn’t end after 30 days. Instead, it expires January 8, 2026, meaning owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season. This extended window positions the feature for maximum word-of-mouth exposure.
A clever holiday gift
Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt first spotted the detail after multiple owners shared screenshots showing the trial expiring on January 8. He confirmed with affected users that none had active FSD subscriptions before the rollout. He also observed that Tesla never called the promotion a “30-day trial,” as the in-car message simply reads “You’re Getting FSD (Supervised) For the Holidays,” which technically runs until after the new year.
The roughly 40-day period covers peak family travel and gatherings, giving owners ample opportunity to showcase the latest FSD V14’s capabilities on highway trips, crowded parking lots and neighborhood drives. With relatives riding along, hands-off highway driving and automatic lane changes could become instant conversation starters.
Rave reviews for FSD V14 highlight demo potential
FSD has been receiving positive reviews from users as of late. Following the release of FSD v14.2.1, numerous owners praised the update for its smoothness and reliability. Tesla owner @LactoseLunatic called it a “huge leap forward from version 14.1.4,” praising extreme smoothness, snappy lane changes and assertive yet safe behavior that allows relaxed monitoring.
-->Another Tesla owner, @DevinOlsenn, drove 600 km without disengagements, noting his wife now defaults to FSD for daily use due to its refined feel. Sawyer Merritt also tested FSD V14.2.1 in snow on unplowed New Hampshire roads, and the system stayed extra cautious without hesitation. Longtime FSD tester Chuck Cook highlighted improved sign recognition in school zones, showing better dynamic awareness. These reports of fewer interventions and a more “sentient” drive could turn family passengers into advocates, fueling subscriptions come January.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Elon Musk stated that rapid advances in artificial intelligence and robotics could make traditional work unnecessary within two decades.
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Work as a “hobby”
During the discussion, Musk said the accelerating capability of AI systems and general-purpose robots will eventually cover all essential tasks, making human labor a choice rather than an economic requirement. “In less than 20 years, working will be optional. Working at all will be optional. Like a hobby,” Musk said.
When Kamath asked whether this future is driven by massive productivity growth, Musk agreed, noting that people will still be free to work if they enjoy the routine or the challenge. He compared future employment to home gardening, as it is something people can still do for personal satisfaction even if buying food from a store is far easier.
“Optional” work in the future
Elon Musk acknowledged the boldness of his claim and joked that people might look back in 20 years and say he was wrong. That being said, the CEO noted that such a scenario could even happen sooner than his prediction, at least if one were to consider the pace of the advancements in AI and robotics.
-->“Obviously people can play this back in 20 years and say, ‘Look, Elon made this ridiculous prediction and it’s not true,’ but I think it will turn out to be true, that in less than 20 years, maybe even as little as ten or 15 years, the advancements in AI and robotics will bring us to the point where working is optional,” Musk said.
Elon Musk’s comments echo his previous sentiments at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, where he noted that Optimus could ultimately eliminate poverty. He also noted that robots like Optimus could eventually provide people worldwide with the best medical care.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates why Tesla will never make an electric motorcycle
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more, highlighting that the electric vehicle maker has no plans to enter the electric motorcycle market.
Musk posted his clarification in a post on X.
Musk’s reply to a fun AI video
X user @Moandbhr posted an AI video featuring the Tesla CEO on the social media platform, captioning it with “Mr. Elon Musk Just Revealed the Game-Changing Tesla Motorcycle.” The short clip depicted Musk approaching a sleek, single-wheeled vehicle, stepping onto it, and gliding off into the distance amid cheers. The fun video received a lot of traction on X, gaining 3.1 million views as of writing.
Musk replied to the post, stating that a Tesla motorcycle is not going to happen. “Never happening, as we can’t make motorcycles safe. For Community Notes, my near death experience was on a road bike. Dirt bikes are safe if you ride carefully, as you can’t be smashed by a truck,” Musk wrote in his reply.
Musk’s Past Comments on Two-Wheelers
Musk also detailed his reservations about motorcycles in a December 2019 X post while responding to questions about Tesla’s potential ATV. At the time, he responded positively to an electric ATV, though he also opposed the idea of a Tesla road-going motorcycle. Musk did state that electric dirt bikes might be cool, since they do not operate in areas where large vehicles like Class 8 trucks are present.
-->“Electric dirt bikes would be cool too. We won’t do road bikes, as too dangerous. I was hit by a truck & almost died on one when I was 17,” Musk wrote in his post.
Considering Musk’s comments about dirt bikes, however, perhaps Tesla would eventually offer a road bike as a recreational vehicle. Such a two-wheeler would be a good fit for the Cybertruck, as well as future products like the Robovan, which could be converted into an RV.
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
