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SpaceX’s Elon Musk set for Starlink launch, Tesla earnings double-header

CEO Elon Musk is set for a unique SpaceX and Tesla double-header with a Starlink launch and earnings report currently scheduled on the same day. (SpaceX

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SpaceX has delayed its latest Starlink launch once more after high winds forced the company to recycle an attempt originally planned for January 27th, setting up SpaceX’s Elon Musk for a Starlink launch and Tesla earnings report on the same day.

Flight-proven Falcon 9 booster B1051 is currently vertical at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Launch Complex 40 (LC-40) and has been for more than a week. Perched atop an expendable upper stage attached to the top of the booster, SpaceX’s third batch of 60 upgraded Starlink v1.0 satellites are loaded inside the rocket’s airtight payload fairing, patiently awaiting a launch that’s now been delayed a full 9 days by winter weather both in Cape Canaveral and off the Florida coast.

Most recently, bad sea conditions in the Atlantic Ocean forced SpaceX to delay Starlink V1 L3 an extra 24 hours from a January 28th backup window and the batch of communications satellites are now scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) 9:09 am EST (14:09 UTC), January 29th. Set to unequivocally reaffirm SpaceX’s position as the owner of the world’s largest private satellite constellation, the mission – should it be a success – will mean that the company has launched its 240th flat-packed Starlink satellite. Additionally, Starlink L3 should feature a number of exciting Falcon 9 recovery events, potentially setting up more than 75% of the rocket’s value for reuse.

Earlier this morning, Teslarati’s own Simon Alvarez offered a glimpse of what to expect from Tesla’s Q4 2019 earnings report, scheduled for 3:30 PM PST (23:30 UTC), January 29th. In short, it looks like Tesla’s highly-anticipated Model Y crossover could find its way to customers much sooner than expected, while additional signs point to another strong quarterly performance that could send the company’s already meteoric stock even higher. As always, CEO Elon Musk is expected to be front and center on the teleconference, which is set to occur just nine hours after SpaceX’s latest 60-satellite Starlink launch.

For SpaceX, the new year has gotten off to a busy start, although Florida’s winter weather has done its best to hamper launch attempts. Beginning with the second launch of Starlink v1.0 satellites (Starlink V1 L2) on January 7th, that Falcon 9 mission was delayed from January 3rd by high seas in the Atlantic Ocean that would have made the booster’s planned drone ship landing extremely risky. In high seas, drone ship decks pitch and buck, creating major uncertainty as Falcon 9 is unable to account for the deck movement.

Falcon 9 B1051 has been ready to launch the third batch of upgraded Starlink satellites for more than a week, but local weather has yet to cooperate. (Richard Angle)

If the floating landing pad is at the peak or trough of large swells when Falcon 9 is scheduled to land, there is a good chance that the rocket could either hit the deck too hard or cut off its engines before landing, falling a distance equivalent to the height of the swell onto the drone ship. Either scenario would pose a serious risk of damaging or even outright destroying a landing Falcon booster, cutting short any future prospects of reuse.

Most recently, SpaceX performed Crew Dragon’s second-ever launch on a Falcon 9 rocket, intentionally triggering an in-flight abort (IFA) some 90 seconds after launch to test the spacecraft’s ability to keep astronauts safe in even a near-worst-case scenario. That particular launch was also delayed a number of days by high seas in the region the spacecraft was expected to splash down in, conditions that would have severely hampered critical recovery work.

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Now a little over a week after Crew Dragon’s successful January 20th Falcon 9 launch, SpaceX’s third launch of the year has been delayed repeatedly by both weather in the recovery area and weather at the launch pad. Originally expected to launch as early as January 20th, a slight Crew Dragon launch delay pushed it to the 21st, where it was then delayed again by high seas to January 24th, and a third time to January 27th. On January 27th, SpaceX got just 40 minutes away from liftoff before it scrubbed the attempt due to high upper-level winds above the launch pad.

(Richard Angle)
(Richard Angle)

Finally, on January 28th, SpaceX announced that bad weather in the recovery area had forced it to skip a backup window scheduled later that day, slipping another 24 hours to 9:09 am EST on January 29th. With any luck, this will be the last in an unusually long series of weather-related delays for the Starlink mission. Aside from Falcon 9 B1051’s third launch and (hopefully) landing, Starlink V1 L3 will also mark the second time ever that twin Falcon fairing recovery ships Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief will attempt to simultaneously catch both halves of a payload fairing — more than worth the wait.

Tune in to SpaceX’s official webcast around 8:55 am EST (13:55 UTC) tomorrow (Wednesday, Jan 29) to watch the company’s third launch of 2020 live.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla shows what Roadster drivers will see on screen before thruster activation

Tesla’s Roadster video reveals a fighter jet inspired cockpit with a 5,500 PSI thruster gauge.

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The next generation Tesla Roadster’s touchscreen, shown in Tesla’s first official look at the car’s interface. (Credit: Tesla/X)

Tesla has given future owners their clearest look yet at the cockpit of its next generation Roadster. In a 34 second video posted to X on Friday afternoon, the company walked through the car’s touchscreen with a caption: “Inspired by fighter jet cockpits, Roadster’s interface was designed around the pilot.”

The clip opens on a black screen with red graphics and a 3D wireframe of the car, which sits beside the Roadster’s squared off yoke. Tapping parts of the model brings up controls for the rear wing, including low drag and high downforce positions, along with a charging page with a charge limit bar and a small music player. A row of tabs along the bottom reads Home, Vehicle, Listen, Climate and Navigate.

Most of the video is spent in Track Mode. The dashboard shows a live circuit map, a list of session lap times, brake and motor temperatures, and pressure and temperature readouts for each tire. A setup page lets the driver pick Auto, Low Drag, High Downforce or Custom aero modes, adjust aero balance and brake balance, and switch stability and traction control off. Along the bottom, a status bar reads “Thruster · 5,500 PSI” next to a “Boost Ready” indicator.

That gauge ties the software to the hardware Tesla showed off near Waco, Texas on October 15. The Thrust and Rocket versions use cold gas thrusters fed by carbon overwrapped pressure vessels, and Tesla lists 0 to 60 mph times of under 0.9 seconds and under 0.59 seconds for them, as Teslarati detailed in its breakdown of the three Roadster configurations. The base Performance car relies on a fan and ground sealing system for grip, and the aero settings on screen match the active wings and suction setup covered in our look at how the Roadster generates downforce.

The Roadster layout is a departure from the rest of Tesla’s lineup. Instead of a map centered screen, the Roadster puts the car itself at the center of the home page, and Tesla’s Roadster page lists two smaller forward displays alongside the main touchscreen. Tesla has not said whether any of the Track Mode telemetry will make its way to the Model 3 Performance or other vehicles.

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The interface could still change before deliveries. Elon Musk said at the event that Roadster production will begin in 2028, and Tesla says the flagship Rocket version is not approved for public road use. Reservations are open with a $50,000 payment, while Thrust is listed as a limited release and Rocket is invite only.

Those who want to see the car in person will get their first chance this weekend. The Roadster goes on display in the lobby of the Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles from October 24 to 27, according to Sawyer Merritt, the first time the public will be able to view it up close.

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Tesla reveals Optimus Academy, where robots teach themselves

Tesla has begun building production quality Optimus robots in Fremont and revealed its training plan.

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Concept rendering of Tesla Optimus in mass production

Tesla has started building Optimus on the high volume line it set up inside its Fremont factory, and the company says the robots coming off it are the first that meet the bar for a real product. “The bots coming off this line are the first production-quality bots that we have manufactured,” Tesla wrote in its third quarter shareholder letter, adding that it has “proven that the current manufacturing process for Optimus is suitable for a commercial product.”

The line sits in space that built the Model S and Model X until this spring. Tesla cleared the old vehicle line in 46 days, as Teslarati reported in July, to make room for robot production sized for one million units a year. On Wednesday’s earnings call, Elon Musk said most of the equipment for that capacity is already in Fremont, with output set to climb toward roughly 20,000 robots a week as the line ramps.

Musk described the ramp as a classic S curve. “The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope,” he said. The team is now refining the robot’s AI, electromechanical design, reliability and service life, and Musk expects that work to be finished by the end of next year, when Tesla plans to start delivering Optimus to outside companies for dangerous, repetitive and around the clock jobs.

The most interesting part of the call was how Tesla plans to teach the robots. Its cars send real driving data back to the AI team from millions of vehicles, but Optimus has no fleet like that yet. “A big difference with Optimus versus the cars is we don’t have this vast fleet of cars from which we can gather training data,” Musk said. Tesla’s answer is an Optimus Academy, where 10,000 to 20,000 robots will practice a wide range of tasks and feed what they learn into the next version of the model. Every unit off the Fremont line becomes a source of that training data.

Smarter hardware is on the way too. Tesla plans to put its AI5 chip into Optimus next year, and Musk said a new Optimus video should arrive within one or two months showing the robot completing tasks driven by AI rather than preprogrammed motions. He took aim at rival humanoid demos that only run scripted routines, saying those would not hold up in the real world.

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The supply chain is lining up behind the program. In September, Tesla certified Tuopu, Joyson and Sanhua as mass production partners for Optimus components. A far larger Optimus factory is also rising at Giga Texas, where drone footage from Joe Tegtmeyer showed the steel frame nearing completion, and Musk has pegged that plant’s long term target at 10 million robots a year.

Tesla executives also said Optimus production costs are trending toward the expected manufacturing cost of Cybercab, a sign the robot is being engineered for volume from the start. The hands remain the toughest piece of the design, a point Musk also made at the X Takeover event earlier this month, as Teslarati covered at the time, and that is where much of the current engineering effort is focused.

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The Starship moon landing number NASA and Elon Musk can’t agree on

Musk disputes NASA estimate of 22 Starship launches for Moon landing, predicting 6 to 8.

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Concept rendering of SpaceX Starship landing on the moon via Grok

Elon Musk is disputing a new NASA safety panel estimate of how many Starship launches it will take to put astronauts on the Moon, saying the real number will be less than half the panel’s figure.

On Thursday, NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly public meeting. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, flagged the fueling process for SpaceX’s lunar lander as a major risk for Artemis IV, the mission planned to land a crew on the Moon in 2028. “We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander,” Precourt said, according to Ars Technica. “I think the last estimate is around 22 flights.”

Ars Technica’s Eric Berger posted the comment on X, and Musk replied. “That’s way too high,” Musk wrote. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”

The disagreement comes down to a basic problem with sending a ship as large as Starship to the Moon. Starship burns nearly all of its propellant just reaching Earth orbit, so it cannot continue on to the Moon without stopping for a refill. SpaceX’s answer is a gas station in space. First, a Starship that works as a storage tank, called a depot, is launched into orbit. Then a series of tanker Starships launch one at a time, dock with the depot and pump their leftover propellant into it. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander version of Starship launches, docks, fills up and heads for the Moon.

Every tanker trip is its own full rocket launch, which is why the count matters. More launches mean more time, more cost and more chances for something to go wrong before astronauts ever leave Earth. Berger estimated that even if SpaceX reaches twice weekly Starship launches by the end of 2027, filling a depot at the panel’s number would still take roughly three months.

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How many tankers are needed depends mostly on how much propellant each one can carry to orbit and how much is lost along the way. Starship’s fuel and oxygen are stored at extremely cold temperatures, and some of it slowly boils off while waiting in orbit. More is lost in each transfer. NASA appears to be working from what Starship can lift today, while Musk’s range assumes a more capable rocket.

Musk has pushed back on higher counts before. In 2021, after a government document suggested 16 launches, he called that “extremely unlikely” and said eight tankers would be the most required.

Much of the answer depends on hardware SpaceX has not finished flying. As Teslarati noted earlier this year, the company plans to carry out the refueling process with its upgraded V3 Starship, and Precourt described Artemis IV as carrying “a large number of firsts.” He also praised NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman’s team for working to clear obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander does not rely on orbital refueling for its first mission.

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