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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”

Starship is visualized here landing on Mars. Initial Texas hop tests will likely look similar, albeit in Earth gravity and over concrete. (SpaceX)

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7 years ago

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.

Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.

Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.

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BFS arrives at Mars. (SpaceX)

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”

Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.

Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.

 

Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.

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Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.

Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.

For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla’s longer Model Y did not scale back requests for this vehicle type from fans

Tesla fans are happy with the new Model Y, but they’re still vocal about the need for something else.

Published

16 hours ago

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July 17, 2025

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Credit: AlwinArt/Twitter

Tesla launched a slightly longer version of the Model Y all-electric crossover in China, and with it being extremely likely that the vehicle will make its way to other markets, including the United States, fans are still looking for something more.

The new Model Y L in China boasts a slightly larger wheelbase than its original version, giving slightly more interior room with a sixth seat, thanks to a third row.

Tesla exec hints at useful and potentially killer Model Y L feature

Tesla has said throughout the past year that it would focus on developing its affordable, compact models, which were set to begin production in the first half of the year. The company has not indicated whether it met that timeline or not, but many are hoping to see unveilings of those designs potentially during the Q3 earnings call.

However, the modifications to the Model Y, which have not yet been officially announced for any markets outside of China, still don’t seem to be what owners and fans are looking forward to. Instead, they are hoping for something larger.

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A few months ago, I reported on the overall consensus within the Tesla community that the company needs a full-size SUV, minivan, or even a cargo van that would be ideal for camping or business use.

Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast

That mentality still seems very present amongst fans and owners, who state that a full-size SUV with enough seating for a larger family, more capability in terms of cargo space for camping or business operation, and something to compete with gas cars like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or electric ones like the Volkswagen ID.BUZZ.

We asked the question on X, and Tesla fans were nearly unanimously in support of a larger SUV or minivan-type vehicle for the company’s lineup:

Here’s what some of the respondents said:

Tesla is certainly aware that many of its owners would like the company to develop something larger that competes with the large SUVs on the market.

However, it has not stated that anything like that is in the current plans for future vehicles, as it has made a concerted effort to develop Robotaxi alongside the affordable, compact models that it claims are in development.

It has already unveiled the Robovan, a people-mover that can seat up to 20 passengers in a lounge-like interior.

The Robovan will be completely driverless, so it’s unlikely we will see it before the release of a fully autonomous Full Self-Driving suite from Tesla.

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Energy

Tesla launches first Virtual Power Plant in UK – get paid to use solar

Tesla has launched its first-ever Virtual Power Plant program in the United Kingdom.

Published

18 hours ago

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July 17, 2025

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Credit: Tesla Energy | X

Tesla has launched its first-ever Virtual Power Plant program in the United Kingdom. This feature enables users of solar panels and energy storage systems to sell their excess energy back to the grid.

Tesla is utilizing Octopus Energy, a British renewable energy company that operates in multiple markets, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States, as the provider for the VPP launch in the region.

The company states that those who enroll in the program can earn up to £300 per month.

Tesla has operated several VPP programs worldwide, most notably in California, Texas, Connecticut, and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico. This is not the first time Tesla has operated a VPP outside the United States, as there are programs in Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.

This is its first in the UK:

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Tesla is not the only company that is working with Octopus Energy in the UK for the VPP, as it joins SolarEdge, GivEnergy, and Enphase as other companies that utilize the Octopus platform for their project operations.

It has been six years since Tesla launched its first VPP, as it started its first in Australia back in 2019. In 2024, Tesla paid out over $10 million to those participating in the program.

Tesla VPP program in California hits new capacity milestone

Participating in the VPP program that Tesla offers not only provides enrolled individuals with the opportunity to earn money, but it also contributes to grid stabilization by supporting local energy grids.

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Elon Musk

Waymo responds to Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion in Austin with bold statement

Waymo and Tesla are surely in a battle of “mine’s bigger” right now.

Published

19 hours ago

on

July 17, 2025

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Credit: Waymo

Waymo has responded to Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion in Austin with a bold statement by extending its own geofence by a considerable margin.

Earlier this week, Tesla chose to expand its geofence for its driverless Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, substantially. The geofence more than doubled, bringing Tesla’s total serviceable area within Austin to approximately 42 square miles.

Tesla’s Robotaxi geofence in Austin grows, and its shape is hard to ignore

This put Tesla ahead of Waymo in terms of its service area in Austin, as the company’s geofence was just 37 square miles.

We reported on how significant this statement was for Tesla, as it has only been operating its driverless Robotaxi platform in Austin for less than a month, compared to Waymo, which has been there since March.

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Tesla Robotaxi has already surpassed Waymo in this key metric

Waymo took it as a challenge, it seems, and expanded its geofence, and it did it impressively and massively. Now, Waymo’s geofence spans 90 square miles within Austin, including new neighborhoods such as Crestview, Windsor Park, Sunset Valley, Franklin Park, as well as popular tourist destinations like The Domain and McKinney Falls State Park.

The move “unlocks another key milestone in Austin as our operating territory with Waymo expands from 37 to 90 square miles, which means that even more riders can experience Waymo’s fully autonomous vehicles through the Uber app,” Sarfraz Maredia, Global Head of Autonomous Mobility & Delivery at Uber, said.

Additionally, Shweta Shrivastava, Senior Director of Product Management at Waymo, said:

“Just months after serving our first Austin riders with Uber, we’re excited to offer our 24/7 service to more of the city. The service with our partners at Uber is healthy, and we are ready for more Austinites to experience the magic of fully autonomous driving. Austin remains one of the fastest growing cities in the country, and we are doing our part to grow with it.”

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Across the U.S., this expansion brings Waymo’s service area to more than 700 square miles, as it also operates in California and Arizona.

Here’s what the two geofenced regions look like:

The competition between Waymo and Tesla only benefits consumers, as the two companies are evidently sparring for a larger service area in Austin. Tesla launched its interestingly-shaped geofence expansion on Monday, and it seemed that the shape was more of a joke that could also be construed as a warning to competitors.

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Tesla could more than likely have pushed its geofence to a larger size, but it purposely chose to do so in a comical fashion.

Now that Waymo has responded in this way, we’ll see if Tesla puts the jokes aside.

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