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SpaceX delivers largest commercial satellite in kick off of Falcon 9 marathon
SpaceX has successfully completed its 13th launch of 2018, kicking off a marathon of three new Falcon 9 Block 5 booster debuts with the launch of the Telstar 19V communications satellite, potentially breaking the record for the largest commercial satellite ever launched at 7000 kg (15,500 lb).
Despite the heft of its payload and partially thanks to a slightly lower parking orbit for the satellite, Falcon 9 booster B1047 – the second Block 5 booster to roll off the assembly line – managed to successfully land aboard the autonomous spaceport drone ship (ASDS) Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY), stationed approximately 650 km (400 mi) off the Florida coast at launch time.
While the booster was unable to maintain a live video feed through its high-speed reentry and Atlantic landing, SpaceX’s cameras on OCISLY managed to reconnect a few seconds after touchdown to show the 50-meter (160-foot) tall rocket safely resting on the drone ship. As the webcast host noted, Falcon 9 Block 5 features a number of prominent upgrades designed to enable levels of reusability and reliability essentially unprecedented in the world of orbital rocketry.
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- B1047 created an extraordinary ring vortex rainbow as it smashed through Max Q, the point of highest aerodynamic stress on the rocket. (Tom Cross)
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- B1047 before the launch of Telstar 19V. (Tom Cross)
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- B1047 before the launch of Telstar 19V. (Tom Cross)
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- B1047 before the launch of Telstar 19V. (Tom Cross)
Rocket trials
Now more than two months after the first Block 5 booster’s – B1046 – debut in May 2018, the software engineer hosting SpaceX’s Telstar 19V webcast was likely speaking more from a place of experience than of hope. Per CEO Elon Musk’s press call just prior to Block 5’s debut, he noted that SpaceX intended to conduct an extensive analysis of that pathfinder booster, including significant disassembly and perhaps some limited destructive testing of certain critical or high-risk components. Musk didn’t expect B1046 to fly for at least another “couple of months”.
This is critical because SpaceX’s manifest over the next several weeks is fairly aggressive – Iridium-7 is scheduled to lift off from Vandenberg, CA three days from today (July 25th), the next Florida launch is aiming for a static fire next weekend and a launch NET 1:19 am EDT August 2, and the second imminent Florida mission is penciled in for launch NET 11:35 pm EDT August 17. Those rapid-fire Florida launches will push both SpaceX’s pad and drone ship turnaround capabilities to their limits, requiring almost non-stop work to ensure both are available for the next mission in two weeks or less.
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- SpaceX’s West Coast landing zone is preparing for its debut, currently NET October 6th 2018. (Pauline Acalin/Teslarati)
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- Falcon 9 B1047 prepped for launch at Pad 40, July 21. (SpaceX)
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- Prior to liftoff, Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are held down by massive “hold-down clamps” at the rocket’s base. Even after engine ignition, those clamps only release once the flight computer decides that the rocket is healthy. (Pauline Acalin)
Not to be (at least relatively) one-upped, SpaceX’s Vandenberg launch pad – known as SLC-4E – is scheduled to push its own turnaround limits by flying two missions in roughly 40 days, just shy of the current SpaceX record of 36 days between launches. Perhaps more excitingly, that September 4 SAOCOM 1A mission looks like a prime candidate for the debut of SpaceX’s yet-unused Californian landing zone, barely spitting distance from the SLC-4E launch pad.
Still, the question remains: what boosters are going to launch these four missions?
- B1051 is not believed to have left the Hawthorne, CA factory yet, and has been stated by NASA to be reserved for the first uncrewed Crew Dragon mission (DM-1), unlikely to occur before Q4 2018.
- B1050 is currently on-stand in McGregor, TX and is likely to be shipped to a launch pad within a week or two.
- B1049 was almost certainly shipped to Florida to support either of the two upcoming August launches.
- B1048 will launch Iridium-7 on July 25, land on Just Read The Instructions, and likely remain in California for future VAFB missions.
- B1047 just successfully launched Telstar 19V (July 22) and will be brought back to Port Canaveral over the next several days before heading to one of SpaceX’s Florida refurbishment facilities, presumably to prepare for an imminent future launch.
- B1046 is likely disassembled in Hawthorne, CA, unable to support a launch for another few weeks – perhaps it’s nearly ready, however
Three Falcon 9 boosters captured in various states of transport and testing over the last six weeks, two of which are B1047 and B1048. (Teslarati/Tesla Motors Club/Reddit/Facebook)
Put simply, it seems almost impossible for SpaceX to accomplish its ambitious manifest over the next 4-6 weeks without reusing a freshly-recovered Falcon 9 Block 5 booster. B1046 is a possibility, as is B1047 or B1048, although the latter two options would smash SpaceX’s previous record for Falcon booster turnaround (~70 days) by more than half, requiring in a return to shore, refurbishment or nondestructive analysis, and preparation for a static fire in as few as ~14-21 days.
Regardless, B1047’s successful Telstar 19V launch and landing have kicked off what is bound to be an extremely exciting period for SpaceX and its aspirations of highly-reusable rocketry.
Follow us for live updates, peeks behind the scenes, and photos from Teslarati’s East and West Coast photographers
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Pauline Acalin – Twitter
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
