In a statement issued to Bloomberg, the US Space Force says that SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket could still conduct its first operational launch for the military before the end of the year.
That’s a large downgrade from late 2021 and early 2022, when – lacking any new information from the US military – it appeared that SpaceX could launch up to three Falcon Heavy rockets for military customers over the course of the year. Around eight months later, the world’s most powerful and capable operational rocket – backed by a strong manifest of 11 firm launch contracts – hasn’t flown once since June 2019. At that time, the rocket’s next launch was already expected no earlier than late 2020 – a roughly 18-month gap.
Instead, thanks to largely unspecified problems that have relentlessly delayed the completion of the satellites Falcon Heavy is supposed to launch, the rocket’s fourth flight is now unlikely to occur less than ~40 months after its third. Thankfully, a new Space Force decision should at least dull the pain caused by the endless shuffling of Falcon Heavy’s near-term launch manifest.
Alongside a slight schedule update stating that SpaceX’s first operational Falcon Heavy launch for the US military could still happen sometime from “October to December” 2022, the Space Force statement issued to Bloomberg mainly revealed the military branch’s June decision to permit SpaceX’s use of reused Falcon Heavy boosters on upcoming launches. While Bloomberg did not publish the statement in full or explain what the decision truly entails, the implication is that the Space Force will now let SpaceX assign flight-proven Falcon boosters – with US military oversight – to its military missions.
The US military will likely retain the ability to veto or modify SpaceX’s booster assignments and reuse sequencing, but the Space Force told Bloomberg that it’s confident that the “recovery, refurbishment, and launch of SpaceX boosters utilizes well-established processes.” In fact, the US military has already approved the use of flight-proven Falcon 9 boosters, several launches of which have since occurred, and even allowed SpaceX to fly two reused Falcon Heavy side booster’s on the rocket’s first (test) launch for the military.
It’s no surprise that that acceptance would eventually grow to include Falcon Heavy, which is similar to Falcon 9 in many ways. That it took the USSF until June 2022, three full years after STP-2 demonstrated the successful reuse of two Falcon Heavy boosters at once, to fully approve it is arguably far more surprising.
SpaceX will likely be able to plan for future Falcon Heavy launches more easily knowing that the US military should – in theory – be okay with the company reusing boosters on upcoming launches. That would be especially true if the military is comfortable with SpaceX reusing Falcon Heavy boosters that have supported non-military launches. After numerous delays, only one non-military mission – ViaSat’s first ViaSat-3 geostationary communications satellite – still claims to have a shot at a 2022 launch, but that target has slipped from spring, late-summer, and September 2022 to Q4 2022 since late 2021.
At one point, the US military’s USSF-44, USSF-52, and USSF-67 missions were all scheduled to launch on Falcon Heavy in 2022. Now, one reliable source states that USSF-44 and USSF-52 are indefinitely delayed, while another indicates that USSF-44 has slipped to December 2022 and USSF-52 to April 2023. Meanwhile, EchoStar’s Jupiter-3 commsat recently slipped to Q1 2023 and NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer ran into software issues that delayed its Falcon Heavy launch from August/September 2022 to July or September 2023.
That leaves ViaSat-3 and USSF-67, both of which could launch in Q4 2022. But given just how delay-ridden ViaSat-3 has been and how temperamental all military Falcon Heavy payloads have been, the most likely outcome may already be zero Falcon Heavy launches in 2022.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
