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SpaceX might launch first Starlink Gen2 satellites next week
Update: It no longer appears that SpaceX’s last Starlink launch of the year will carry true V2 or V2 Mini satellite prototypes for its next-generation Starlink constellation. That has only deepened the layers of mystery surrounding the mission.
SpaceX has told the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that it plans to begin launching its first next-generation Starlink Gen2 satellites before the end of 2022.
The FCC only just granted SpaceX partial approval of its Starlink Gen2 constellation, which has been under review since May 2020, in late November 2022. Just a week or two later, in several filings asking the FCC to expedite Special Temporary Authority (STA) requests that would allow it to fully test and communicate with its first next-generation satellite prototypes, SpaceX said [PDF] that it “anticipates that it will begin launching Gen2 satellites before the end of December 2022.”
The update that's rolling out to the fleet makes full use of the front and rear steering travel to minimize turning circle. In this case a reduction of 1.6 feet just over the air— Wes (@wmorrill3) April 16, 2024
In most of the main STA requests filed in early December, SpaceX appears to be asking the FCC to add Starlink Gen2 satellites as approved points of communication for user terminals and ground stations that are already licensed. Those include its new high-performance dishes, newer base-model dishes (both fixed and in motion), and first-generation (round) dishes. While the FCC’s recent actions on Starlink do not raise confidence in its consistency, objectivity, and rationality, these requests should be shoe-ins.
SpaceX also wants permission to activate Very High Frequency (VHF) beacons that are meant to be installed on all Starlink Gen2 satellites. Those beacons would serve as a backup to existing telemetry, tracking, and command (TT&C) antennas and decrease the odds of a total loss of control by ensuring that SpaceX can remain in contact with Gen2 satellites regardless of their orientation – an ability that would obviously improve the safety of Starlink orbital operations.
Given how unusually long it took the FCC to review SpaceX’s Starlink Gen2 applications and how arbitrarily strict it was with its partial Gen2 license grant, it’s hard to say if the FCC will grant these STA requests or how long it will take if it does. SpaceX finds itself in a strange position where the FCC has given it permission to begin launching up to 7500 Starlink Gen2 satellites, but has not granted SpaceX permission to use those satellites to communicate with user terminals.
To the FCC’s credit, a constellation operator has never been ready to launch satellites less than one month after launches were approved, and it’s likely that the processes to ensure those satellites can be properly used after launch are ongoing. Additionally, because of the FCC’s arbitrary license restrictions, SpaceX is not allowed to launch or operate any Starlink Gen2 satellites outside of a narrow range of altitudes (475-580 km). After launch, Starlink Gen2 satellites will likely take around two or three months to reach those operational orbits, only after which can SpaceX begin using them in earnest. As long as the FCC approves most of SpaceX’s December 2022 STA requests, the disruption to Starlink Gen2 deployment and on-orbit testing should thus be limited.
Next week?
While SpaceX’s schedule targets can often be easily dismissed for future projects, there is evidence that SpaceX will actually attempt to launch the first Starlink Gen2 satellites before the end of the year. Earlier this month, SpaceX received permission to communicate with a Falcon 9 rocket for a mission called Starlink 5-1. One of five orbital ‘shells’ that make up SpaceX’s first-generation Starlink constellation does technically have zero satellites and is awaiting its first launch. But that shell (Group 5) is polar, meaning that its satellites will orbit around Earth’s poles, and the STA license the FCC granted indicates that this launch will be to a more equatorial inclination, which would not make sense for a Group 5 launch.
It’s thus possible that SpaceX decided to repurpose the STA for its first Starlink Gen2 launch, which the company cannot currently launch to an inclination other than 53 degrees – roughly the same trajectory indicated by the document. Starlink Gen1 has two 53-degree shells, Group 1 and Group 4, and both are nearly complete and would likely be called Starlink 1-XX or 4-XX in FCC filings. Combined with SpaceX stating in its VHF beacon STA request that initial Starlink Gen2 launches will start in “late December 2022,” and unofficial manifests indicating that SpaceX has a Starlink launch scheduled as early as December 28th, it certainly appears that first Gen2 satellites will reach orbit later this year.
More likely than not, they will be Starlink “V2 Mini” satellites – a downsized variant created to maximize the efficiency of Falcon 9 Starlink Gen2/V2 launches while SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket remains stuck on the ground. The Starship-optimized Starlink V2 satellites SpaceX initially hoped would be the only version reportedly weigh about 1.25 tons (~2750 lb) and measure roughly 6.5 by 2.7 meters (21 x 9 ft). According to an October 2022 FCC filing, Starlink V2 Mini satellites will still be several times larger than today’s Starlink V1.5 satellites, weighing up to 800 kilograms (~1750 lb) and measuring 4.1 by 2.7 meters (13.5 x 9 ft).
SpaceX says Starlink V2 Mini satellites will also have a pair of massive solar arrays with a total array of 120 square meters (~1300 sq ft). Assuming V2 Mini satellites are roughly as power-efficient as V1.5 satellites and use similarly efficient solar arrays, that indicates that could offer around 3-4 times more usable bandwidth per satellite. Assuming SpaceX has again found a way to use all of Falcon 9’s available performance, each rocket should be able to carry up to 21 Starlink V2 Mini satellites to low Earth orbit.
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Tesla has passed a critical self-driving milestone Elon Musk listed in Master Plan Part Deux
Tesla China announced that the company’s Autopilot system has accumulated 10 billion kilometers of driving experience.
Tesla has passed a key milestone, and it was one that CEO Elon Musk initially mentioned more than nine years ago when he published Master Plan, Part Deux.
As per Tesla China in a post on its official Weibo account, the company’s Autopilot system has accumulated over 10 billion kilometers of real-world driving experience.
Tesla China’s subtle, but huge announcement
In its Weibo post, Tesla China announced that the company’s Autopilot system has accumulated 10 billion kilometers of driving experience. “In this respect, Tesla vehicles equipped with Autopilot technology can be considered to have the world’s most experienced and seasoned driver.”
Tesla AI’s handle on Weibo also highlighted a key advantage of the company’s self-driving system. “It will never drive under the influence of alcohol, be distracted, or be fatigued,” the team wrote. “We believe that advancements in Autopilot technology will save more lives.”
Tesla China did not clarify exactly what it meant by “Autopilot” in its Weibo post, though the company’s intense focus on FSD over the past years suggests that the term includes miles that were driven by FSD (Beta) and Full Self-Driving (Supervised). Either way, 10 billion cumulative miles of real-world data is something that few, if any, competitors could compete with.
Elon Musk’s 10-billion-km estimate, way back in 2016
When Elon Musk published Master Plan Part Deux, he outlined his vision for the company’s autonomous driving system. At the time, Autopilot was still very new, though Musk was already envisioning how the system could get regulatory approval worldwide. He estimated that worldwide regulatory approval will probably require around 10 billion miles of real-world driving data, which was an impossible-sounding amount at the time.
“Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day,” Musk wrote.
It’s quite interesting but Tesla is indeed getting regulatory approval for FSD (Supervised) at a steady pace today, at a time when 10 billion miles of data has been achieved. The system has been active in the United States and has since been rolled out to other countries such as Australia, New Zealand, China, and, more recently, South Korea. Expectations are high that Tesla could secure FSD approval in Europe sometime next year as well.
Elon Musk
SpaceX maintains unbelievable Starship target despite Booster 18 incident
It appears that it will take more than an anomaly to stop SpaceX’s march towards Starship V3’s refinement.
SpaceX recently shared an incredibly ambitious and bold update about Starship V3’s 12th test flight.
Despite the anomaly that damaged Booster 18, SpaceX maintained that it was still following its plans for the upgraded spacecraft and booster for the coming months. Needless to say, it appears that it will take more than an anomaly to stop SpaceX’s march towards Starship V3’s refinement.
Starship V3 is still on a rapid development path
SpaceX’s update was posted through the private space company’s official account on social media platform X. As per the company, “the Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems.”
SpaceX then announced that Starship V3’s maiden flight is still expected to happen early next year. “Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026,” the company wrote in its post on X.
Elon Musk mentioned a similar timeline on X earlier this year. In the lead up to Starshp Flight 11, which proved flawless, Musk stated that “Starship V3 is a massive upgrade from the current V2 and should be through production and testing by end of year, with heavy flight activity next year.” Musk has also mentioned that Starship V3 should be good enough to use for initial Mars missions.
Booster 18 failure not slowing Starship V3’s schedule
SpaceX’s bold update came after Booster 18 experienced a major anomaly during gas system pressure testing at SpaceX’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas. SpaceX confirmed in a post on X that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were positioned at a safe distance when the booster’s lower section crumpled, resulting in no injuries.
Still, livestream footage showed significant damage around the liquid oxygen tank area of Booster 18, leading observers to speculate that the booster was a total loss. Booster 18 was among the earliest vehicles in the Starship V3 series, making the failure notable. Despite the setback, Starship V3’s development plans appear unchanged, with SpaceX pushing ahead of its Q1 2026 test flight target.
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Tesla Sweden faces fresh union blockade at key Gothenburg paint shop
Allround Lack works with painting and damage repair of passenger cars, including Teslas.
Tesla’s ongoing labor conflict in Sweden escalated again as the trade union IF Metall issued a new blockade halting all Tesla paintwork at Allround Lack in Gothenburg.
Allround Lack works with painting and damage repair of passenger cars, including Teslas. It currently employs about 20 employees.
Yet another blockade against Tesla Sweden
IF Metall’s latest notice ordered a full work stoppage for all Tesla-related activity at Allround Lack. With the blockade in place, paint jobs on Tesla-owned vehicles, factory-warranty repairs, and transport-damage fixes, will be effectively frozen, as noted in a report from Dagens Arbete. While Allround Lack is a small paint shop, its work with Tesla means that the blockade would add challenges to the company’s operations in Sweden, at least to some degree.
Paint shop blockades have been a recurring tool in the longstanding conflict. The first appeared in late 2023, when repair shops were barred from servicing Tesla vehicles. Days later, the Painters’ Union implemented a nationwide halt on Tesla paint work across more than 100 shops. Since then, a steady stream of workshops has been pulled into the conflict.
Earlier blockades faced backlash from consumers
The sweeping effects of the early blockades drew criticism from industry groups and consumers. Employers and industry organization Transportföretagen stated that the strikes harmed numerous workshops across Sweden, with about 10 of its members losing about 50% of their revenue.
Private owners also expressed their objections. Tibor Blomhäll, chairman of Tesla Club Sweden, told DA in a previous statement that the blockades from IF Metall gave the impression that the union was specifically attacking consumers. “If I get parking damage to my car, I pay for the paint myself. The company Tesla is not involved in that deal at all. So many people felt singled out, almost stigmatized. What have I done as a private individual to get a union against me?” Blomhäll stated.
In response to these complaints, IF Metall introduced exemptions, allowing severely damaged vehicles to be repaired. The union later reopened access for private owners at workshops with collective agreements. The blockades at the workshops were also reformulated to only apply to work that is “ordered by Tesla on Tesla’s own cars, as well as work covered by factory warranties and transport damage on Tesla cars.”
Tesla has passed a critical self-driving milestone Elon Musk listed in Master Plan Part Deux
SpaceX maintains unbelievable Starship target despite Booster 18 incident
