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SpaceX might launch first Starlink Gen2 satellites next week

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Update: It no longer appears that SpaceX’s last Starlink launch of the year will carry true V2 or V2 Mini satellite prototypes for its next-generation Starlink constellation. That has only deepened the layers of mystery surrounding the mission.

SpaceX has told the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that it plans to begin launching its first next-generation Starlink Gen2 satellites before the end of 2022.

The FCC only just granted SpaceX partial approval of its Starlink Gen2 constellation, which has been under review since May 2020, in late November 2022. Just a week or two later, in several filings asking the FCC to expedite Special Temporary Authority (STA) requests that would allow it to fully test and communicate with its first next-generation satellite prototypes, SpaceX said [PDF] that it “anticipates that it will begin launching Gen2 satellites before the end of December 2022.”

In most of the main STA requests filed in early December, SpaceX appears to be asking the FCC to add Starlink Gen2 satellites as approved points of communication for user terminals and ground stations that are already licensed. Those include its new high-performance dishes, newer base-model dishes (both fixed and in motion), and first-generation (round) dishes. While the FCC’s recent actions on Starlink do not raise confidence in its consistency, objectivity, and rationality, these requests should be shoe-ins.

SpaceX also wants permission to activate Very High Frequency (VHF) beacons that are meant to be installed on all Starlink Gen2 satellites. Those beacons would serve as a backup to existing telemetry, tracking, and command (TT&C) antennas and decrease the odds of a total loss of control by ensuring that SpaceX can remain in contact with Gen2 satellites regardless of their orientation – an ability that would obviously improve the safety of Starlink orbital operations.

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Given how unusually long it took the FCC to review SpaceX’s Starlink Gen2 applications and how arbitrarily strict it was with its partial Gen2 license grant, it’s hard to say if the FCC will grant these STA requests or how long it will take if it does. SpaceX finds itself in a strange position where the FCC has given it permission to begin launching up to 7500 Starlink Gen2 satellites, but has not granted SpaceX permission to use those satellites to communicate with user terminals.

To the FCC’s credit, a constellation operator has never been ready to launch satellites less than one month after launches were approved, and it’s likely that the processes to ensure those satellites can be properly used after launch are ongoing. Additionally, because of the FCC’s arbitrary license restrictions, SpaceX is not allowed to launch or operate any Starlink Gen2 satellites outside of a narrow range of altitudes (475-580 km). After launch, Starlink Gen2 satellites will likely take around two or three months to reach those operational orbits, only after which can SpaceX begin using them in earnest. As long as the FCC approves most of SpaceX’s December 2022 STA requests, the disruption to Starlink Gen2 deployment and on-orbit testing should thus be limited.

Next week?

While SpaceX’s schedule targets can often be easily dismissed for future projects, there is evidence that SpaceX will actually attempt to launch the first Starlink Gen2 satellites before the end of the year. Earlier this month, SpaceX received permission to communicate with a Falcon 9 rocket for a mission called Starlink 5-1. One of five orbital ‘shells’ that make up SpaceX’s first-generation Starlink constellation does technically have zero satellites and is awaiting its first launch. But that shell (Group 5) is polar, meaning that its satellites will orbit around Earth’s poles, and the STA license the FCC granted indicates that this launch will be to a more equatorial inclination, which would not make sense for a Group 5 launch.

It’s thus possible that SpaceX decided to repurpose the STA for its first Starlink Gen2 launch, which the company cannot currently launch to an inclination other than 53 degrees – roughly the same trajectory indicated by the document. Starlink Gen1 has two 53-degree shells, Group 1 and Group 4, and both are nearly complete and would likely be called Starlink 1-XX or 4-XX in FCC filings. Combined with SpaceX stating in its VHF beacon STA request that initial Starlink Gen2 launches will start in “late December 2022,” and unofficial manifests indicating that SpaceX has a Starlink launch scheduled as early as December 28th, it certainly appears that first Gen2 satellites will reach orbit later this year.

“F9-1” is Starlink Gen1, while “F9-2” is Starlink V2 Mini and “Solar Array Starship” refers to the full-size Starlink V2 variant. These figures

More likely than not, they will be Starlink “V2 Mini” satellites – a downsized variant created to maximize the efficiency of Falcon 9 Starlink Gen2/V2 launches while SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket remains stuck on the ground. The Starship-optimized Starlink V2 satellites SpaceX initially hoped would be the only version reportedly weigh about 1.25 tons (~2750 lb) and measure roughly 6.5 by 2.7 meters (21 x 9 ft). According to an October 2022 FCC filing, Starlink V2 Mini satellites will still be several times larger than today’s Starlink V1.5 satellites, weighing up to 800 kilograms (~1750 lb) and measuring 4.1 by 2.7 meters (13.5 x 9 ft).

SpaceX says Starlink V2 Mini satellites will also have a pair of massive solar arrays with a total array of 120 square meters (~1300 sq ft). Assuming V2 Mini satellites are roughly as power-efficient as V1.5 satellites and use similarly efficient solar arrays, that indicates that could offer around 3-4 times more usable bandwidth per satellite. Assuming SpaceX has again found a way to use all of Falcon 9’s available performance, each rocket should be able to carry up to 21 Starlink V2 Mini satellites to low Earth orbit.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update, which will utilize the company’s vision-first approach to enable better protection in the event of an accident.

Over the years, Tesla has gained an incredible reputation for prioritizing safety in its vehicles, with crash test ratings at the forefront of its engineers’ minds.

This has led to Tesla gaining numerous five-star safety ratings and awards related to safety. It is not just a statistical thing, either. In the real world, we’ve seen Teslas demonstrate some impressive examples of crash safety.

Everything from that glass roof not caving in when a tree falls on it to a Model Y surviving a drive off a cliff has been recorded.

However, Tesla is always looking to improve safety, and unlike most companies, it does not need a physical hardware update to do so. It can enhance features such as crash response and airbag performance through Over-the-Air software updates, which download automatically to the vehicle.

In Tesla’s 2025.32 Software Update, the company is rolling out a Frontal Airbag System Enhancement, which aims to use Tesla Vision, the company’s camera-based approach to self-driving, to keep occupants safe.

The release notes state (via NotaTeslaApp):

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash. Building on top of regulatory and industry crash testing, this release enables front airbags to begin to inflate and restrain occupants earlier, in a way that only Tesla’s integrated systems are capable of doing, making your car safer over time.”

The use of cameras to predict a better time to restrain occupants with seatbelts and inflate airbags prior to a collision is a fantastic way to prevent injuries and limit harm done to those in the vehicle.

The feature is currently limited to the Model Y.

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Elon Musk says this Tesla project will make up vast majority of company value

“~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus,” Musk said.

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(Credit: Ryan Lash/TED)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has not shied away from the idea that the company’s value is not reliant on its performance as an automaker.

That idea is even more prudent in today’s landscape than ever, especially as Tesla leans more on its prowess as an AI, autonomy, and robotics company rather than one that just makes electric cars.

Musk solidified that point on Monday, as he revealed that he believes the vast majority of Tesla’s valuation will rely on a project that the company has been developing for several years.

The CEO has long discussed how robotics will revolutionize the labor landscape in factories, households, and other workplaces.

He believes Optimus, as it is rolled out in the coming years, will truly take over as the main contributor to Tesla’s valuation, being worth about 80 percent of the company’s total market cap:

This is a point Musk has previously discussed, but he has never listed a specific number in terms of what Optimus could mean to Tesla. In the past, he’s mentioned Optimus’s ability to generate long-term revenue potential, its value to the company, and its impact on the market overall.

Musk has said Optimus has the potential to be worth over $10 trillion in revenue:

“It’s one of those things where I think long term, Optimus will be — Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue, like it’s really bananas. So, that, you can obviously afford a lot of training compute in that situation. In fact, even $500 billion training compute in that situation would be quite a good deal.”

Optimus has been a main point of discussion amongst analysts who cover the company. Piper Sandler recently released a note that said “Optimus should be moving/staging parts within Tesla’s facilities” by this time next year.

Analysts also said that Optimus could be a major benefit for companies to bring in to handle tedious tasks in manufacturing settings. If it is able to work 18-hour shifts, the firm believes Tesla could price it at $100,000 per unit.

Tesla talks Semi ramp, Optimus, Robotaxi rollout, FSD with Wall Street firm

Other firms, like Morgan Stanley, have said Tesla could replace its own staff by 10 percent with Optimus, saving the company $2.5 billion.

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Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design

In a new video titled “Sustainable Abundance,” Tesla was showing the Cybercab clay models being autonomously molded. In the back, there are very clearly several models of a Cybertruck-inspired SUV:

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design, which would encapsulate the stainless steel exoskeleton of the Cybertruck but with elements of an SUV.

The company has been hearing from consumers and fans for some time that it is in need of a full-size SUV in its lineup.

Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast

The Model X is more compact than what people are looking for, and although the company has said its focus for some time would be on developing affordable models and the Cybercab, which only enables two-passenger travel, it appears that it may be considering other options.

In a new video titled “Sustainable Abundance,” Tesla was showing the Cybercab clay models being autonomously molded. In the back, there are very clearly several models of a Cybertruck-inspired SUV:

This would not be the first time Tesla has placed projects it is developing in the back of a promotional video, as it did something similar when it was unveiling the improvements it made to the new Model Y earlier this year.

It appeared to show two new body styles sitting in the back under car covers:

 

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There are two things that could prevent this from becoming a future, developed product that reaches the market. One of them seems to be a definitive no, but Tesla’s plans could certainly change, especially given the strong push from fans for this type of vehicle.

Tesla said it wouldn’t build a Stainless Steel exoskeleton vehicle again

Tesla said in its Q4 2024 Shareholder Deck that Cybertruck’s stainless steel exoskeleton would not be used in future vehicles in the top line:

This seems like a definitive no in terms of developing an SUV based on Cybertruck’s aesthetics. However, that could always change.

Tesla’s main focus in autonomy currently

Developing an SUV of this size has been previously dismissed by Tesla, as its focus is on autonomy, AI, and robotics. However, it will still need to develop attractive and useful vehicles that address a large market, and the United States has a strong affinity for SUVs and crossovers.

It seems totally feasible that Tesla could bring this type of vehicle to market to appease the many fans who have called for the company to build it. Tesla has not committed to anything at this point, which is the most important thing to remember.

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