News
SpaceX’s first fairing catch imminent with plans to 4X Mr Steven’s net
Following SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s brief confirmation that the launch company would be quadrupling recovery vessel Mr Steven’s already-huge net, members of the /r/SpaceX subreddit created a rough visualization of what that expanded net might look like once completed.
Based on rough estimates done by the author, SpaceX’s official confirmation that fairings had landed within 50 meters of Mr Steven’s net indicates that the parasailing halves are able to somewhat reliably reach Mr Steven’s net with a margin of error of roughly 0.01% when they really need 0.005% to be caught in the vessel’s net every time. Based on specifications from the vessel’s shipyard, his current claws appear to be roughly 75% the length of the entire vessel, or something like 40m long by 30 to 40m wide.
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- An artist rendering of a Falcon 9 fairing parasailing towards Mr Steven’s net. Original photos by Chuck Bennett (Instagram @chuckbennett) and SpaceX. (/Chuck Bennet/SpaceX/Eric Ralph)
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- It’s difficult to imagine how Mr Steven’s already vast net could plausibly be expanded by a factor of two in each dimension. I certainly can’t wait to see how SpaceX engineers and technicians tackle the task. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Created by Reddit /u/Pipinpadiloxacopolis, this visualization shows Mr Steven with net with 4X the area currently installed. (Teslarati/ /u/Pipinpadiloxacopolis)
Several days after the author’s speculation was published, Mr. Musk appeared to effectively corroborate it by stating on Twitter that Mr Steven’s net would have its area expanded fourfold in order to operationalize fairing recovery: to quadruple the area, both the length and the width of the net would need to be expanded by a factor of two (square) or perhaps 50% width-wise and 150% lengthwise (more rectangular). Mr Steven’s massive steel arms appear to be fairly permanent in their current forms, suggesting that changing the aspect ratio of the net would be far more effort than simply expanding his arms along their current paths. Either way, lengthwise growth of a factor of 2-2.5 would appear to functionally close the gap on that 0.005% margin of error (the current 0.01% – missing by 50 meters – divided by 2 equals 0.005%) required, albeit by modifying the recovery vessel instead of optimizing the fairings’ hardware and software.
TL;DR: @SpaceX's fairing recovery engineers/techs have achieved a margin of error of like 0.01% when they actually need ~0.005% to reliably catch fairings in Mr Steven's net. Success is imminent 😀 https://t.co/MfPdzdBkyO
— Eric Ralph (@13ericralph31) June 1, 2018
Put more simply, a net with four times the area would roughly halve the accuracy required from each fairing half for reliable recovery. Compared with the original (left) above, Reddit user Pipinpadiloxacopolis followed Musk’s rough estimation and did a rough Photoshop (right) of the fairing recovery vessel’s current arms, expanding it by 2X in each direction to arrive at a quadrupled area. Although I would argue that Mr Steven’s forward arms are unlikely to ever move beyond their current end-point around 10 meters behind the vessel’s crew cabin and cockpit, /u/Pipin’s estimate is probably a decent prediction for the upgraded vessel’s most likely appearance.
What’s less clear is whether the depth of the net will increase alongside the length and width, nor whether the already massive arms will have to rely on some sort of retraction/pivot mechanism to allow Mr Steven to safely maneuver within Port of Los Angeles waters. Regardless of the solution that SpaceX expertise arrives at, the already eclectic recovery vessel is all but guaranteed to look even more absurd and awesome than it already does. With any luck, the net expansion may allow SpaceX to finally achieve their first successful ‘catch’ of a Falcon fairing, ending the need for mass-storage of unreusable fairing halves grabbed off of the ocean surface.
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- Mr Steven and drone ship Just Read The Instructions captured at their berths on June 5th. JRTI also appears to be preparing for a return to action with Iridium-7. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Even SpaceXers deserve a break. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Mr Steven slips between massive container ship canyons on the final leg of its return. (Chuck Bennett, Instagram @chuckbennett)
Stay tuned, as Teslarati photographer Pauline Acalin will be tracking modifications made to Mr Steven closely over the next several weeks. As of now, the vessel will return to the Pacific Ocean for another fairing catch attempt sometime in the second or third week of July. We’ll find out soon whether Musk’s mentioned upgrades can be realized before then.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.
Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:
- Total Revenues: $28.34B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
- Operating Margin: 2.5%
- Operating Income: $721M
- Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B
Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:
Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability
This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.
Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.
Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress
The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.
Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Say Investor Questions
- How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
- When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
- When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
- What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
- Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.
SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u
— Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”
Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.
The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.
The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.
As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
Tesla reports Q3 Earnings today: here’s what to expect
