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SpaceX adds mystery Falcon 9 launch to packed October manifest

FCC paperwork suggests that the SpaceX has added a mystery rocket launch to its packed October manifest. (Richard Angle)

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SpaceX FCC paperwork has revealed the addition of an unidentified Falcon 9 launch to the company’s packed October manifest, ranging from several Starlink missions to Crew Dragon’s first operational astronaut launch.

Under the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC), companies must submit an application for permission to communicate with their rocket for every single launch. While a major annoyance for those companies and an undeniably clunky process, those applications for “special temporary authority” (STAs) to communicate are one of the only ways members of the public can independently monitor and forecast US launch activities. For SpaceX, the company typically applies for multiple STAs for every single launch, including specific applications for booster launches, landings, and preflight ground tests.

The separate STAs can be connected with a “Mission Number” SpaceX associates each one with, while coordinates included to designate the area of landing communications (i.e. the drone ship recovery zone) often reveals a mission’s trajectory. Combined, STAs can often be used to identify the exact mission (i.e. a Starlink launch, Crew Dragon, etc.). STAs for SpaceX’s upcoming Crew Dragon Crew-1 and Cargo Dragon CRS-21 missions, as well as several Starlink launches, have already been identified.

FCC paperwork suggests that the SpaceX has added a mystery rocket launch to its packed October manifest. (SpaceX/Richard Angle)

Thanks to bad weather and a flurry of ULA delays, SpaceX’s October manifest is currently packed with three Starlink missions, a GPS III satellite launch for the US military, and Crew Dragon’s first operational astronaut mission to the International Space Station (ISS). Barring a miracle, ULA’s latest Delta IV Heavy launch delay has pushed SpaceX’s GPS III SV04 mission to October 1st.

GPS III Space Vehicle 04 (SV04) is encapsulated inside Falcon 9’s payload fairing. (SpaceX)

Starlink-12 – SpaceX’s 11th Starlink mission this year and 13th overall – is tentatively set to follow GPS III SV04 at 9:17 am EDT (13:17 UTC) on October 1st. Starlink-13 and Starlink-14 are then scheduled to launch no earlier than mid-to-late-October. Finally, SpaceX and NASA are in the final stages of preparing for Crew Dragon’s Crew-1 mission – the spacecraft’s first operational delivery of astronauts to the ISS – as soon as October 31st (Halloween).

A new Sirius XM radio satellite (SXM-7) could launch on a Falcon 9 rocket on November 6th. On the West Coast, SpaceX’s first California mission since June 2019 could launch on November 10th. SpaceX and NASA are also targeting the launch debut of an upgraded Cargo Dragon 2 resupply spacecraft on a mission known as CRS-21, scheduled to lift off NET November 15th. Last but assuredly not least, Turkey’s Turksat 5A communications satellite could launch as early as November 31st. No Starlink missions are currently scheduled in November but it’s safe to assume that there will be at least one or two. Altogether, SpaceX already has five launches scheduled in October and four set for November. While undeniably prolific, SpaceX has never launched more than three times in one month.

Falcon 9 B1059 completes an RTLS landing at LZ-1, August 30th. (SpaceX)

Now, on top of that swath of firm launches, mysterious “SpaceX Mission 1512” has joined the fray. Based on the FCC STA request, the mission is scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) October 3rd (with a six-month window) and will include a return-to-launch-site (RTLS) Falcon 9 booster landing. The RTLS landing in particular substantially constrains the mission and means – right off the bat – that it can’t be for Starlink, while also ruling out Cargo Dragon CRS-21 (an RTLS landing STA already exists) and Crew Dragon Crew-1 (drone ship landing). Simply put, an RTLS rules out every other launch on SpaceX’s 2020 manifest beyond a rideshare mission tentatively scheduled in December, and SpaceX almost never files for STAs months in advance.

That leaves some kind of unannounced, mystery mission. Only once in SpaceX’s history has the company conducted an unannounced launch – unsurprisingly for some unknown branch of the US military or espionage apparatus. Known as Zuma and still shrouded in secrecy, it followed an almost identical pattern, revealed only through FCC launch and landing communications requests and rumors in 2017 before a January 2018 launch. Although Northrop Grumman was thrown under the bus for a failed payload adapter that may or may not have doomed the satellite, no federal agency has taken credit for the mission – unspeakably odd as far as spaceflight goes.

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At the time, unofficial rumors published on Reddit implied that Zuma would only be the first of many similar missions. The claimed failure of a spring-like deployment mechanism and loss of spacecraft – believed to be worth one or several billion dollars – just hours after launch would have unsurprisingly thrown a wrench into those gears. Now, almost three years later and in the midst of an exceptionally busy period of several important launches, could SpaceX be preparing for Zuma-2?

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Investor's Corner

Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake

The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker. 

Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

Institutional investors and TSLA

Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.

The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.

Recent insider sales

Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.

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Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.

@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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Tesla rolls out fresh Supercharger pricing strategy to more locations

Live Pricing aimed to resolve some of the shortcomings of the off-peak and on-peak system, aiming to keep prices low and base them on current utilization instead of a set time when prices change.

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tesla supercharger
Credit: Tesla

Tesla has rolled out a fresh Supercharger pricing strategy to more locations, as it confirmed it has added 550 additional sites in the United States to its “Live Pricing” strategy.

Live Pricing for Superchargers launched back in May, and was the company’s latest strategy to keep charging your EV cheap, affordable, and easy to understand.

Tesla has adjusted its pricing strategy at Superchargers several times over the past few years, with the most notable being the 2020 introduction of off-peak and on-peak Supercharging rates.

Live Pricing aimed to resolve some of the shortcomings of the off-peak and on-peak system, aiming to keep prices low and base them on current utilization instead of a set time when prices change.

Tesla explained the program when it launched:

“We are piloting on-peak and off-peak pricing based on live Supercharger utilization rather than estimations. The average price remains unchanged, but this live feedback loop improves accuracy. This corrects off-peak pricing during times of congestion, or on-peak pricing when Superchargers are plentiful. You’ll always see the price before your session begins, and prices do not change mid-session. A small-scale pilot is launching at 10 sites and will expand based on feedback and success.”

The initial rollout only included Superchargers in California, but it was not all of them, only a handful instead. Tesla was attempting to launch it in a very controlled manner by using a Pilot Program that would iron out all the early bugs and potential issues it might run into.

However, the company expanded the program by launching it at an additional 550 sites in California, New Jersey, New York, Florida, and Illinois:

The price you pay is locked in when you plug in, so if the Supercharger station you are charging at becomes more crowded and the program bumps up the rates because of high utilization rates, you will still receive the cheaper price that was enabled when you arrived.

@teslarati With a pedestrian in the crosswalk, Tesla Full Self-Driving shows off its courtesy. Human drivers? Not so much. #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ AMERICAN HEART – Maxwell Luke

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Tesla Robotaxi was just spotted in a new state for the first time

The company is still attempting to expand and has explicitly stated that it plans to offer rides in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida in the near future. However, a pair of Robotaxi mules, fitted with LiDAR equipment for ground truth validation, was spotted in a new region for the first time.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi mules were spotted in a new state for the first time as the company plans to expand the ride-sharing service to new areas of the United States in the coming months.

Tesla is offering Robotaxi rides in Austin already, where nobody is present in the driver’s seat except for on freeway routes. In California, Tesla refers to its platform as a ride-hailing suite, and a “Safety Monitor” is present in the driver’s seat at all times, but the vehicle operates on Full Self-Driving.

The company is still attempting to expand and has explicitly stated that it plans to offer rides in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida in the near future. However, a pair of Robotaxi mules, fitted with LiDAR equipment for ground truth validation, was spotted in a new region for the first time.

Over the weekend, Tesla Robotaxi mules were spotted in Enola, Pennsylvania, just about ten minutes from downtown Harrisburg:

Enola is situated to the northwest of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s State Capitol. Interestingly, you’d expect Tesla to be testing these types of vehicles in other, more populated areas; Philadelphia is about two hours East, and Pittsburgh is about three hours west. State College is about an hour North of Enola.

Looking at the location of where the vehicles were spotted tells an interesting story, as Enola, located right outside of the State Capitol, could be a move to nudge legislators to consider looking at some of the laws that deal with driverless and autonomous vehicle operation.

Pennsylvania’s Act 130 of 2022 and subsequent guidelines permit the testing of driverless vehicles in the Commonwealth, but PennDOT requires a permit from Tesla or any other company that wants to operate a ride-hailing service in PA.

It’s also important to note that the cars could have simply been stopping through, as they were spotted at a Supercharger location along Interstate 81, which spans from Tennessee to New York.

It is not to say the vehicles are testing along the entire route, but likely a segment of it. The fact that they were spotted in Pennsylvania does bode well for Tesla’s expansion efforts moving forward.

@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario

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