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SpaceX has announced that BFR's first crewed lunar voyage will be funded by billionaire Yasuka Maezawa and will include as many as 10 additional passengers. (SpaceX) SpaceX has announced that BFR's first crewed lunar voyage will be funded by billionaire Yasuka Maezawa and will include as many as 10 additional passengers. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX and NASA accidentally set the stage for a new race to the Moon

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Almost entirely driven by chance, SpaceX and NASA may soon find themselves in an unintentional race to return humans to the Moon for the first time in half a century.

Both entities – SpaceX with its next-generation BFR and NASA with its Shuttle-derived SLS – are tentatively targeting 2023 for their similar circumlunar voyages, in which NASA astronauts and private individuals could theoretically travel around the Moon within just months of each other, showcasing two utterly dissimilar approaches to space exploration.

SpaceX’s updated BFR spaceship seen cresting over the Moon’s limb. (SpaceX)

Over the course of no fewer than seven years of development, NASA’s SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft have run into an unrelenting barrage of issues, effectively delaying the system’s launch debut at a rate equivalent to or even faster than the passage of time itself. In other words, every month recently spent working on the vehicle seems to have reliably corresponded with at least an additional month of delays for the launch system.

Why these incessant delays continue to occur is an entire story in itself and demands the acknowledgment of some uncomfortable and inconvenient realities about the state of NASA’s human spaceflight program in the 21st century, but that is a story is for another time.

A different kind of paper rocket

Returning to SLS, a brief overview is in order to properly contextualize what exactly the rocket and spacecraft are and what exactly their development has cost up to now. SLS is comprised of four major hardware segments.

  • The Core Stage: A massive liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen rocket booster, this section is essentially a lengthened version of the retired Space Shuttle’s familiar orange propellant tank, while the stage’s four engines are quite literally taken from stores of mothballed Space Shuttle hardware and will be ingloriously expended after each launch (SLS is 100% expendable).
  • Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs): Minimally modified copies of the SRBs used during the Space Shuttle program, SLS’ SRBs have slightly more solid propellant and have had all hints of reusability removed, whereas Space Shuttle boosters deployed parachutes and were reused after landing in the Atlantic Ocean.
An overview of SLS. (NASA)
  • The Upper Stage (Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System, ICPS): ICPS is a slightly modified version of ULA’s off-the-shelf Delta IV upper stage.
  • The Orion spacecraft and European Service Module: Borrowing heavily from the Apollo Command and Service Modules that took humanity to the Moon in the 1960s and 70s, Orion has been in funded development in one form or another for more than 12 years, with just one partial flight-test to call its own. Orion’s development has cost the U.S. approximately $16 billion since 2006, with another $4-6 billion expected between now and 2023, a sum that doesn’t account for the costs of production and operations once development is complete.

 

For the SLS core stage and SRBs, a generous bottom-rung estimate indicates that $14 billion has been spent on the rocket itself between 2011 and 2018, not including many billions more spent refurbishing and modifying the rocket’s aging Saturn and Shuttle-derived launch infrastructure at Kennedy Space Center. Of the many distressing patterns that appear in the above descriptions of SLS hardware, most notable is a near-obsessive dependence upon “heritage” hardware that has already been designed and tested – in some cases even manufactured.

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Despite cobbling together or reusing as many mature components, facilities, and workforces as possible and relying on slightly-modified commercial hardware at every turn, SLS and Orion will somehow end up costing the United States more than $30 billion dollars before it has completed a single full launch; potentially rising beyond $40 billion by the time the system is ready to launch NASA astronauts.

Moonward bound

SLS’ first crewed mission, known as Exploratory Mission-2 (EM-2), brings us to the title – NASA’s mission planning has settled on sending a crew of four astronauts on what is known as a Free Lunar Return trajectory in the Orion spacecraft, essentially a single flyby of the Moon. Official NASA statements appear to be sending mixed messages on the schedule for EM-2’s launch, with September 2018 presentations indicating 2022 while a late-August blog post suggests that the crewed circumlunar mission is targeting launch in 2023.

As it happens, SpaceX announced its own plans for a (private) crewed circumlunar voyage less than two weeks ago. Funded in large part by Japanese billionaire Yasuka Maezawa, SpaceX’s hopes to send 10+ people to the Moon on its next-generation BFR launch vehicle, comprised of a fully-reusable booster and spaceship. Deemed Dear Moon by Maezawa, SpaceX is targeting an extremely ambitious launch deadline sometime in 2023, although CEO Elon Musk frankly noted that hitting that 2023 window would require all aspects of BFR booster and spaceship development to proceed flawlessly over the next several years.

Compared to the 10+ years and $30+ billion of development SLS and Orion will have taken before their first full launch, SpaceX is targeting the first orbital BFR test flights as early as 2020 or 2021, self-admittedly optimistic deadlines that will likely slip. Still, betting against SpaceX completing its first BFR launch sometime in the early to mid-2020s for something approximating Musk’s $2-10 billion development cost seems a risky move in the context of SpaceX’s undeniable track record of proving the old-guard wrong.

 

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It must be noted that the apparent alignment of both SpaceX and NASA’s first crewed circumlunar missions with new rockets and spacecraft is a fluke of chance, and the fact that it may or may not take the shape of a second race to the Moon – pitting two dramatically different ideologies and organizational approaches against each other – is purely coincidental.

However, despite the undeniable fact that NASA and SpaceX are deeply and cooperatively involved through Crew and Cargo Dragon and despite Musk’s genuine affirmations of support and admiration for the space agency, it can be almost guaranteed that the world will look on in the 2020s with the same underlying emotions and motivations that were globally present during the Apollo Program. Rather than a battle of economic and nationalistic ideologies, the New Space Race of the 2020s will pit two (publicly) amicable private and public entities against each other at the same time as they work hand-in-hand to deliver crew and cargo to the International Space Station.

 

Critically, this new “race” will be fairly illusory. Thanks to the fact that the new goal of human spaceflight appears to be the sustainable exploration of the solar system, there will inherently be no Apollo-style finish line for any one company or country or agency to cross. Rather than the Apollo Program’s shortsighted economic motivations and its consequentially abrupt demise, the end-result of this new age of competition will be the establishment of humanity as a (deep) spacefaring species, be it a temporary burst of effort or a permanent human condition.

Buckle up.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk reiterates his most optimistic prediction yet with “UHI” forecast

Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist.

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Joel Kowsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist. If he were not one, he would never have founded Tesla or SpaceX, or pursued projects such as Neuralink or xAI.

Musk’s optimism was on full display on social media platform X recently, when he shared what could very well be his most optimistic prediction yet.

Robots and humans

The Tesla CEO recently responded to a post from David Scott Patterson, who estimated that all jobs will be replaced by AI and robots easily by 2030. In his post, Patterson noted that if robots are sold at the same rate as vehicles, it could result in an output of 320 million robots per year. 

Musk responded that eventually, intelligent humanoid robots will far exceed the population of humans, and “there will be many robots in industry for every human to provide products & services.” 

Musk is already taking steps to achieve such a future. Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is expected to see its first “legion” produced this 2025. During an All-Hands meeting earlier this year, Musk also hinted to Tesla employees that the company will try to produce about 50,000 Optimus robots next year. 

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Universal High Income (UHI)

Musk has shared similar sentiments in the past, so it was no surprise that some X users asked the CEO how humans could sustain their lives when robots replace working individuals. To this, Musk responded that a Universal High Income (UHI) would be implemented, which should provide people with the best medical care, food, and transport available.

“There will be universal high income (not merely basic income). Everyone will have the best medical care, food, home, transport and everything else. Sustainable abundance,” Musk wrote in his post

Musk’s comment about sustainable abundance seems to be a prevalent theme in his recent optimistic comments. During Tesla’s second quarter earnings call, for example, Musk hinted that his Master Plan Part Four will describe a path towards sustainable abundance in a post-autonomy world.

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Tesla FSD upcoming Australia release seemingly teased bv media

The videos showed FSD navigating lane changes, slowing for traffic, and handling curves without driver input.

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Credit: Tesla AI/X

New videos from Australia have fueled speculations that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) will be rolling out in the country soon. 

The videos, which were shared widely on social media, showed Teslas navigating lane changes, slowing for traffic, and handling curves without driver input, but still with active supervision.

New FSD footage

One video, posted by lifestyle outlet Man of Many and narrated by journalist Ben McKimm, highlighted how quickly the system responded to real-world conditions. McKimm seemed quite impressed with FSD’s performance, stating that the vehicle performs maneuvers much like a human driver. 

Another video, which featured reporter Danielle Collin, featured a Tesla operating on public roads using its FSD (Supervised) system. Similar to McKimm, Collin seemed very impressed with the capabilities of FSD, as the vehicle was reacting to things like stop signs on its own. 

No regulatory barriers

This isn’t the first time the software has been seen on Australian roads. Earlier this year, Tesla released a clip of a Model 3 driving through Melbourne’s central business district with no visible driver input. A second video later surfaced from Sydney, reinforcing expectations that Australia could be among the first right-hand-drive markets to receive access.

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According to Tesla’s Australian website, FSD (Supervised) uses 360-degree camera visibility to manage blind spots, execute lane changes, and maintain awareness of surrounding vehicles, cyclists, and motorcycles. While Tesla notes that constant human oversight is still required for now, FSD is designed to handle city intersections, multi-lane highways, and traffic signals.

In an earlier statement to news.com.au, Tesla country director Thom Drew previously confirmed there were “no blockers in Australia” for a supervised release of FSD, similar to North America. “It’s something our business is working on releasing,” Drew said, though he did not provide a timeline.

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Tesla Careers website is hinting at preparations for a monster Q3 and Q4

Tesla has gone live with several dozen openings for Delivery Vehicle Prep specialists on its Careers website.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla seems to be preparing for a monster Q3 and Q4 2025. This was, at least, hinted at by some job openings that have been observed by industry watchers in Tesla’s Careers website.

Job listing trends

As observed by avid Tesla watchers on social media, the electric vehicle maker has gone live with several dozen openings for Delivery Vehicle Prep specialists on its Careers website. In North America alone, about 69 job openings for the position have been listed by the company. 

The role of a Delivery Vehicle Prep specialist is notable, as they help with vehicle preparation, vehicle inspections, effective lot management, and active collaboration with your team to enhance pre-delivery processes. Considering that the position ensures that cars are handed over to customers in the best way possible, it seems futile for Tesla to ramp up its hiring for the post if it is not expecting large volumes of deliveries in the coming months.

Increasing demand

Tesla’s vehicle sales in the first and second quarters of the year have been quite throttled due to a variety of factors, from the changeover to the Model Y in the Fremont Factory, Gigafactory Shanghai, Gigafactory Berlin, and Gigafactory Texas, to the rise of anti-Tesla sentiment due to CEO Elon Musk’s political activities earlier this year. These factors are no longer affecting Tesla this Q3, and the company tends to deliver a notable amount of its vehicles in the fourth quarter. 

With this in mind, it would appear that Tesla is indeed preparing for a massive uptick in its vehicle deliveries for the remaining months of the year. The company, after all, would likely be quite busy, especially with the upcoming introduction of the new Model 3 Performance and the rollout of Tesla China’s recently unveiled Model Y L. Expectations are also high that Tesla is preparing to roll out more affordable variants of its vehicles later this year.

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