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SpaceX and NASA accidentally set the stage for a new race to the Moon
Almost entirely driven by chance, SpaceX and NASA may soon find themselves in an unintentional race to return humans to the Moon for the first time in half a century.
Both entities – SpaceX with its next-generation BFR and NASA with its Shuttle-derived SLS – are tentatively targeting 2023 for their similar circumlunar voyages, in which NASA astronauts and private individuals could theoretically travel around the Moon within just months of each other, showcasing two utterly dissimilar approaches to space exploration.
Over the course of no fewer than seven years of development, NASA’s SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft have run into an unrelenting barrage of issues, effectively delaying the system’s launch debut at a rate equivalent to or even faster than the passage of time itself. In other words, every month recently spent working on the vehicle seems to have reliably corresponded with at least an additional month of delays for the launch system.
Why these incessant delays continue to occur is an entire story in itself and demands the acknowledgment of some uncomfortable and inconvenient realities about the state of NASA’s human spaceflight program in the 21st century, but that is a story is for another time.
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- SLS. (NASA)
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- NASA’s Orion spacecraft, European Service Module, and ICPS upper stage. (NASA)
A different kind of paper rocket
Returning to SLS, a brief overview is in order to properly contextualize what exactly the rocket and spacecraft are and what exactly their development has cost up to now. SLS is comprised of four major hardware segments.
- The Core Stage: A massive liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen rocket booster, this section is essentially a lengthened version of the retired Space Shuttle’s familiar orange propellant tank, while the stage’s four engines are quite literally taken from stores of mothballed Space Shuttle hardware and will be ingloriously expended after each launch (SLS is 100% expendable).
- Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs): Minimally modified copies of the SRBs used during the Space Shuttle program, SLS’ SRBs have slightly more solid propellant and have had all hints of reusability removed, whereas Space Shuttle boosters deployed parachutes and were reused after landing in the Atlantic Ocean.
- The Upper Stage (Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System, ICPS): ICPS is a slightly modified version of ULA’s off-the-shelf Delta IV upper stage.
- The Orion spacecraft and European Service Module: Borrowing heavily from the Apollo Command and Service Modules that took humanity to the Moon in the 1960s and 70s, Orion has been in funded development in one form or another for more than 12 years, with just one partial flight-test to call its own. Orion’s development has cost the U.S. approximately $16 billion since 2006, with another $4-6 billion expected between now and 2023, a sum that doesn’t account for the costs of production and operations once development is complete.
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- The Orion spacecraft and ESM. (NASA)
For the SLS core stage and SRBs, a generous bottom-rung estimate indicates that $14 billion has been spent on the rocket itself between 2011 and 2018, not including many billions more spent refurbishing and modifying the rocket’s aging Saturn and Shuttle-derived launch infrastructure at Kennedy Space Center. Of the many distressing patterns that appear in the above descriptions of SLS hardware, most notable is a near-obsessive dependence upon “heritage” hardware that has already been designed and tested – in some cases even manufactured.
Despite cobbling together or reusing as many mature components, facilities, and workforces as possible and relying on slightly-modified commercial hardware at every turn, SLS and Orion will somehow end up costing the United States more than $30 billion dollars before it has completed a single full launch; potentially rising beyond $40 billion by the time the system is ready to launch NASA astronauts.
Moonward bound
SLS’ first crewed mission, known as Exploratory Mission-2 (EM-2), brings us to the title – NASA’s mission planning has settled on sending a crew of four astronauts on what is known as a Free Lunar Return trajectory in the Orion spacecraft, essentially a single flyby of the Moon. Official NASA statements appear to be sending mixed messages on the schedule for EM-2’s launch, with September 2018 presentations indicating 2022 while a late-August blog post suggests that the crewed circumlunar mission is targeting launch in 2023.
As it happens, SpaceX announced its own plans for a (private) crewed circumlunar voyage less than two weeks ago. Funded in large part by Japanese billionaire Yasuka Maezawa, SpaceX’s hopes to send 10+ people to the Moon on its next-generation BFR launch vehicle, comprised of a fully-reusable booster and spaceship. Deemed Dear Moon by Maezawa, SpaceX is targeting an extremely ambitious launch deadline sometime in 2023, although CEO Elon Musk frankly noted that hitting that 2023 window would require all aspects of BFR booster and spaceship development to proceed flawlessly over the next several years.
Compared to the 10+ years and $30+ billion of development SLS and Orion will have taken before their first full launch, SpaceX is targeting the first orbital BFR test flights as early as 2020 or 2021, self-admittedly optimistic deadlines that will likely slip. Still, betting against SpaceX completing its first BFR launch sometime in the early to mid-2020s for something approximating Musk’s $2-10 billion development cost seems a risky move in the context of SpaceX’s undeniable track record of proving the old-guard wrong.
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- NASA’s EM-2 circumlunar voyage. (NASA)
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- SpaceX’s own circumlunar trajectory, nearly identical. (SpaceX)
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- SLS Block 1. (NASA)
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- BFR’s spaceship and booster (now Starship and Super Heavy) separate in a mid-2018 render of the vehicle. (SpaceX)
It must be noted that the apparent alignment of both SpaceX and NASA’s first crewed circumlunar missions with new rockets and spacecraft is a fluke of chance, and the fact that it may or may not take the shape of a second race to the Moon – pitting two dramatically different ideologies and organizational approaches against each other – is purely coincidental.
However, despite the undeniable fact that NASA and SpaceX are deeply and cooperatively involved through Crew and Cargo Dragon and despite Musk’s genuine affirmations of support and admiration for the space agency, it can be almost guaranteed that the world will look on in the 2020s with the same underlying emotions and motivations that were globally present during the Apollo Program. Rather than a battle of economic and nationalistic ideologies, the New Space Race of the 2020s will pit two (publicly) amicable private and public entities against each other at the same time as they work hand-in-hand to deliver crew and cargo to the International Space Station.
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- An overview of BFR’s booster and spaceship, now known as Super Heavy and Starship. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX has already completed the first of many carbon-composite sections of its prototype spaceship. (SpaceX)
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- SLS’ movable launch pad is very slowly being prepared for a 2020/2021 debut. (Tom Cross)
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- SLS undoubtedly has several steps up on BFR in terms of volume of hardware in work, although target launch dates are quite similar for both rockets. (NASA)
Critically, this new “race” will be fairly illusory. Thanks to the fact that the new goal of human spaceflight appears to be the sustainable exploration of the solar system, there will inherently be no Apollo-style finish line for any one company or country or agency to cross. Rather than the Apollo Program’s shortsighted economic motivations and its consequentially abrupt demise, the end-result of this new age of competition will be the establishment of humanity as a (deep) spacefaring species, be it a temporary burst of effort or a permanent human condition.
Buckle up.
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Tesla refines Full Self-Driving, latest update impresses where it last came up short
We were able to go out and test it pretty extensively on Saturday, and the changes Tesla made from the previous version were incredibly impressive, especially considering it seemed to excel where it last came up short.
Tesla released Full Self-Driving v14.2.1.25 on Friday night to Early Access Program (EAP) members. It came as a surprise, as it was paired with the release of the Holiday Update.
We were able to go out and test it pretty extensively on Saturday, and the changes Tesla made from the previous version were incredibly impressive, especially considering it seemed to excel where it last came up short.
Tesla supplements Holiday Update by sneaking in new Full Self-Driving version
With Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1, there were some serious regressions. Speed Profiles were overtinkered with, causing some modes to behave in a strange manner. Hurry Mode was the most evident, as it refused to go more than 10 MPH over the speed limit on freeways.
It would routinely hold up traffic at this speed, and flipping it into Mad Max mode was sort of over the top. Hurry is what I use most frequently, and it had become somewhat unusable with v14.2.1.
It seemed as if Speed Profiles should be more associated with both passing and lane-changing frequency. Capping speeds does not help as it can impede the flow of traffic. When FSD travels at the speed of other traffic, it is much more effective and less disruptive.
With v14.2.1.25, there were three noticeable changes that improved its performance significantly: Speed Profile refinements, lane change confidence, and Speed Limit recognition.
🚨 Many of you asked us to test highway driving with Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1.25. Here’s what we noticed:
✅ Speed Profiles are significantly improved. Hurry Mode is no longer capped at 10 MPH over the speed limit, and now travels with the flow of traffic. This is much… pic.twitter.com/48ZCGbW0JO
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 13, 2025
Speed Profile Refinement
Speed Profiles have been significantly improved. Hurry Mode is no longer capped at 10 MPH over the speed limit and now travels with the flow of traffic. This is much more comfortable during highway operation, and I was not required to intervene at any point.
With v14.2.1, I was sometimes assisting it with lane changes, and felt it was in the wrong place at the wrong time more frequently than ever before.
However, this was one of the best-performing FSD versions in recent memory, and I really did not have any complaints on the highway. Speed, maneuvering, lane switching, routing, and aggressiveness were all perfect.
Lane Changes
v14.2.1 had a tendency to be a little more timid when changing lanes, which was sort of frustrating at times. When the car decides to change lanes and turn on its signal, it needs to pull the trigger and change lanes.
It also changed lanes at extremely unnecessary times, which was a real frustration.
There were no issues today on v14.2.1.25; lane changes were super confident, executed at the correct time, and in the correct fashion. It made good decisions on when to get into the right lane when proceeding toward its exit.
It was one of the first times in a while that I did not feel as if I needed to nudge it to change lanes. I was very impressed.
Speed Limit Recognition
So, this is a complex issue. With v14.2.1, there were many times when it would see a Speed Limit sign that was not meant for the car (one catered for tractor trailers, for example) or even a route sign, and it would incorrectly adjust the speed. It did this on the highway several times, mistaking a Route 30 sign for a 30 MPH sign, then beginning to decelerate from 55 MPH to 30 MPH on the highway.
This required an intervention. I also had an issue leaving a drive-thru Christmas lights display, where the owners of the private property had a 15 MPH sign posted nearly every 200 yards for about a mile and a half.
The car identified it as a 55 MPH sign and sped up significantly. This caused an intervention, and I had to drive manually.
It seems like FSD v14.2.1.25 is now less reliant on the signage (maybe because it was incorrectly labeling it) and more reliant on map data or the behavior of nearby traffic.
A good example was on the highway today: despite the car reading that Route 30 sign and the Speed Limit sign on the center screen reading 30 MPH, the car did not decelerate. It continued at the same speed, but I’m not sure if that’s because of traffic or map data:
🚨 We listened to and read a lot of you who had a complaint of Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 incorrectly reading Speed Limit signs
This appears to be resolved in v14.2.1.25.
Here’s a breakdown: pic.twitter.com/TEP03xrMbt
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 13, 2025
A Lone Complaint
Tesla has said future updates will include parking improvements, and I’m really anxious for them, because parking is not great. I’ve had some real issues with it over the past couple of months.
Today was no different:
🚨 My lone complaint with my drive on Tesla FSD v14.2.1.25 was this strange parking instance.
FSD swung out wide to the left to pull into this spot and this is where it seemed to be stumped. I gave it about 10 seconds after the car just stopped moving for it to make some… https://t.co/ZEkhTHOihG pic.twitter.com/TRemXu5DLf
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 13, 2025
Full Self-Driving v14.2.1.25 is really a massive improvement over past versions, and it seems apparent that Tesla took its time with fixing the bugs, especially with highway operation on v14.2.1.
News
Tesla hints at Starlink integration with recent patent
“By employing polymer blends, some examples enable RF transmission from all the modules to satellites and other communication devices both inside and outside the vehicle.”
Tesla hinted at a potential Starlink internet terminal integration within its vehicles in a recent patent, which describes a vehicle roof assembly with integrated radio frequency (RF) transparency.
The patent, which is Pub. No U.S. 2025/0368267 describes a new vehicle roof that is made of RF-transparent polymer materials, allowing and “facilitating clear communication with external devices and satellites.”
Tesla believes that a new vehicle roof design, comprised of different materials than the standard metallic or glass elements used in cars today, would allow the company to integrate modern vehicular technologies, “particularly those requiring radio frequency transmission and reception.
Tesla has recently filed a US patent application on integrating RF transparent materials into the roof structure.
“facilitating clear communication with external devices and satellites”
Tesla fleet is getting @Starlink connectivity integration soon. LFG @Tesla @elonmusk… pic.twitter.com/bLa8YtPLd1
— Chansoo Byeon (@Chansoo) December 9, 2025
Instead of glass or metallic materials, Tesla says vehicles may benefit from high-strength polymer blends, such as Polycarbonate, Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene, or Acrylonitrile Styrene Acrylate.
These materials still provide ideal strength metrics for crashworthiness, stiffness for noise, vibration, and harshness control, and are compliant with head impact regulations.
They would also enable better performance with modern technologies, like internet terminals, which need an uninterrupted signal to satellites for maximum reception. Tesla writes in the patent:
“By employing polymer blends, some examples enable RF transmission from all the modules to satellites and other communication devices both inside and outside the vehicle.”
One of the challenges Tesla seems to be aware of with this type of roof design is the fact that it will still have to enable safety and keep that at the forefront of the design. As you can see in the illustration above, Tesla plans to use four layers to increase safety and rigidity, while also combating noise and vibration.
It notes in the patent that disclosed examples still meet the safety requirements outlined in the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS).
Starlink integrated directly into Tesla vehicles would be a considerable advantage for owners. It would come with a handful of distinct advantages.
Initially, the inclusion of Starlink would completely eliminate cellular dead zones, something that is an issue, especially in rural areas. Starlink would provide connectivity in these remote regions and would ensure uninterrupted service during road trips and off-grid adventures.
It could also be a critical addition for Robotaxi, as it is crucial to have solid and reliable connectivity for remote monitoring and fleet management.
Starlink’s growing constellation, thanks to SpaceX’s routine and frequent launch schedule, will provide secure, stable, and reliable internet connectivity for Tesla vehicles.
Although many owners have already mounted Starlink Mini dishes under their glass roofs for a similar experience, it may be integrated directly into Teslas in the coming years, either as an upgrade or a standard feature.
News
Tesla supplements Holiday Update by sneaking in new Full Self-Driving version
It seems Tesla was waiting for the Hardware 4 rollout, as it wanted to also deploy a new Full Self-Driving version to those owners, as it appeared in the release notes for the Holiday Update last night.
Tesla has surprised some owners by sneaking in a new Full Self-Driving version with the wide release of the Holiday Update, which started rolling out to Hardware 4 owners on Friday night.
Tesla has issued a controlled and very slow release pattern with the Holiday Update, which rolls out with Software Version 2025.44.25.5.
For the past two weeks, as it has rolled out to Hardware 3 and older Tesla owners, the company has kept its deployment of the new Software Version relatively controlled.
It seems Tesla was waiting for the Hardware 4 rollout, as it wanted to also deploy a new Full Self-Driving version to those owners, as it appeared in the release notes for the Holiday Update last night.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1.25 made its first appearance last night to Hardware 4 owners who are members of the Early Access Program (EAP). It appears to be a slight refinement from FSD v14.2.1, which has been out for a couple of weeks.
Tesla v2025.44.25.5 Holiday update incoming
Also Full Self-Driving v14.2.1.25!!! pic.twitter.com/74D7S0UGXz
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 13, 2025
Many owners welcome the new FSD version, us included, because we’ve been less than impressed with v14.2.1. We have experienced some minor regressions with v14.2.1, especially with Speed Limit recognition, Speed Profile tinkering, and parking performance.
As it stands, Full Self-Driving is still particularly impressive, but Tesla is evidently having an issue with some of the adjustments, as it is still refining some of the performance aspects of the suite. This is expected and normal with some updates, as not all of them are an improvement in all areas; we routinely see some things backtrack every once in a while.
This new FSD version is likely to take care of those things, but it also includes all of the awesome Holiday Update features, which include:
- Grok with Navigation Commands (Beta) – Grok will now add and edit destinations.
- Tesla Photobooth – Take pictures inside your car using the cabin-facing camera
- Dog Mode Live Activity – Check on your four-legged friend on your phone through periodic snapshots taken of the cabin
- Dashcam Viewer Update – Includes new metrics, like steering wheel angle, speed, and more
- Santa Mode – New graphics, trees, and a lock chime
- Light Show Update – Addition of Jingle Rush light show
- Custom Wraps and License Plates – Colorizer now allows you to customize your vehicle even further, with custom patterns, license plates, and tint
- Navigation Improvements – Easier layout and setup
- Supercharger Site Map – Starting at 18 pilot locations, a 3D view of the Supercharger you’re visiting will be available
- Automatic Carpool Lane Routing – Navigation will utilize carpool lanes if enabled
- Phone Left Behind Chime – Your car will now tell you if you left a phone inside
- Charge Limit Per Location – Set a charge limit for each location
- ISS Docking Simulator – New game
- Additional Improvements – Turn off wireless charging pad, Spotify improvements, Rainbow Rave Cave, Lock Sound TRON addition
Tesla also added two other things that were undocumented, like Charging Passport and information on USB drive storage to help with Dashcam.
Tesla refines Full Self-Driving, latest update impresses where it last came up short
Tesla hints at Starlink integration with recent patent
