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SpaceX’s Starlink launch debut to orbit dozens of satellites later this month

Trust me, I do appreciate the irony of using a OneWeb/Arianespace render to illustrate a SpaceX Starlink launch. Nevertheless...(Arianespace)

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SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell has revealed that the company’s first dedicated Starlink launch is scheduled for May 15th and will involve “dozens” of satellites.

Corroborated by several sources, the actual number of Starlink satellites that will be aboard Falcon 9 is hard to believe given that it is a satellite constellation’s first quasi-operational launch. Suffice it to say, if all spacecraft reach orbit in good health, SpaceX will easily become the operator and owner of one of the top five largest commercial satellite constellations in the world with a single launch. Such an unprecedentedly ambitious first step suggests that the perceived practicality of SpaceX’s Starlink ambitions may need to be entirely reframed going forward.

From 0 to 100

In short, it’s hard to exaggerate just how much of a surprise it is to hear that SpaceX’s very first Starlink launch – aside from two prototypes launched in Feb. 2018 – will attempt to place “dozens” of satellites in orbit. Competitor OneWeb, for example, conducted its first launch in February 2019, placing just six satellites in orbit relative to planned future launches with 20-30. To go from 2(ish) to “dozens” in a single step will break all sorts of industry standards/traditions.

Despite the ~15 months that have passed since that first launch, SpaceX’s Starlink team has really only spent the last 6-9 months in a phase of serious mass-production buildup. As of now, the company has no dedicated satellite factory – space in Hawthorne, CA is far too constrained. Instead, the design, production, and assembly of Starlink satellites is being done in 3-4 separate buildings located throughout the Seattle/Redmond area.

One of SpaceX’s Seattle properties.

SpaceX’s Starlink team has managed to transition almost silently from research and development to serious mass-production (i.e. dozens of satellites) in the space of about half a year. The dozens of spacecraft scheduled to launch on SpaceX’s first dedicated mission – likely weighing 200-300 kg (440-660 lb) each – have also managed to travel from Seattle to Cape Canaveral in the last few months and may now be just a few days away from fairing encapsulation.

To some extent, the first flight-ready batch of “dozens” of satellites are still partial prototypes, likely equivalent to the second round of flight testing mentioned by CEO Elon Musk last year. This group of spacecraft will have no inter-satellite laser (optical) links, a feature that would transform an orbiting Starlink constellation into a vast mesh network. According to FCC filings, the first 75 satellites will be of the partial-prototype variety, followed soon after by the first spacecraft with a more or less finalized design and a full complement of hardware.

If this is just step one…

Meanwhile, Shotwell – speaking at the Satellite 2019 conference – suggested that SpaceX could launch anywhere from two to six dedicated Starlink missions this year, depending on the performance of the first batch. Put a slightly different way, take the “dozens” of satellites she hinted at, multiply that number by 6, and you’ve arrived at the number of spacecraft she believes SpaceX is theoretically capable of producing and delivering in the next 7.5 months.

“Dozens” implies no less than two dozen or a bare minimum of 144 satellites potentially built and launched before the year is out. However, combined with a target orbit of 450 km (280 mi) and a planned drone ship booster recovery more than 620 km (385 mi) downrange, 36, 48, or 60 satellites seem far more likely. Tintin A/B – extremely rough, testbed-like prototypes – were about 400 kg (~900 lb) each.

As an example, SpaceX’s eight Iridium NEXT satellite launches had payloads of more than 10,000 kg (22,000 lb), were launched to an orbit around 630 km (390 mi), and required a upper stage coast and second burn on-orbit. Further, Iridium missions didn’t get the efficiency benefit that Starlink will by launching east along the Earth’s rotational axis. Despite all that, Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters were still able to land less than 250 km (155 mi) downrange after Iridium launches. Crew Dragon’s recent launch debut saw Falcon 9 place the >13,000 kg (28,700 lb) payload into a 200 km (125 mi) orbit with a drone ship landing less than 500 km (310 mi) downrange, much of which was margin to satisfy safety requirements.

Starlink-1’s target orbit is thus a third lower than Iridium NEXT, while its drone ship will be stationed more than 2.5 times further downrange. Combined, SpaceX’s first Starlink payload will likely weigh significantly more than ~13,000 kg and may end up being the heaviest payload the company has yet to launch.

An Arianespace render of a OneWeb launch offers the best unofficial look yet at what SpaceX’s first Starlink launch might look like. (Ariane)

Assuming a payload mass of ~14,000 kg (~31,000 lb) at launch, a worst-case scenario with ~400 kg spacecraft and a 2000 kg dispenser would translate to 30 Starlink satellites. Cut their mass to 300 kg and the dispenser to 1000 kg and that rises to ~45 satellites. Drop even further to 200 kg apiece and a single recoverable Falcon 9 launch could place >60 satellites in orbit.

Of course, this entirely ignores the elephant in the room: the usable volume of SpaceX’s standard Falcon payload fairing. It’s unclear how SpaceX would fit 24 – let alone 60 – high-performance satellites into said fairing without severely constraining their design and capabilities. SpaceX’s solution to this problem will effectively remain unanswered until launch, assuming the company is willing to provide some sort of press release and/or offer a live view of spacecraft deployment on their webcast. Given the cutthroat nature of competition with the likes of OneWeb, Telesat, LeoSat, and others, this is not guaranteed.

Pictured here after its second launch in January 2019, Falcon 9 B1049.3 is the likeliest candidate for Starlink-1. (Pauline Acalin)

At the end of the day, such a major leap into action bodes extremely well for SpaceX’s ability to realize its ambitious Starlink constellation, and do so fast. For those on Earth without reliable internet access or any access at all, the faster Starlink – and competing constellations, for that matter – can be realized, the sooner all of humanity can enjoy the many benefits connectivity can bring. For those that sit under the thumb of monopolistic conglomerates like Comcast and Time Warner Cable, relief will be no less welcome.

Stay tuned as we get closer to Starlink-1’s May 15th launch date. Up next is a static fire of the mission’s Falcon 9 rocket, perhaps just two or three days from now.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla analyst compares Robotaxi to Waymo: ‘The contrast was clear’

“In short, robotaxi felt like a more luxurious service for half the cost and the driving felt more human-like.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla analyst Jed Dorsheimer of Wall Street firm William Blair compared the company’s Robotaxi platform to Waymo’s driverless ride-sharing program, and had a clear-cut consensus over which option was better in terms of rider experience.

Dorsheimer visited Austin recently to ride in both Tesla’s Robotaxi ride-sharing program and Waymo, which has operated slightly longer than Tesla has in the city. Tesla started rides on June 22, while Waymo opened its vehicles to the public in March.

A Tesla Model Y L Robotaxi is a legitimate $47k Waymo killer

The analyst gave both platforms the opportunity to present themselves, and by the end of it, one was better than the other in terms of rider experience. However, he noted that both platforms gave safe and smooth rides.

Overall, there was a tremendous difference in the feel and environment of each option.

Tesla Robotaxi vs. Waymo

Dorsheimer said that Tesla’s first big advantage was vehicle appearance. Robotaxi uses no external equipment or hardware to operate; just its exterior cameras. Meanwhile, Zoox and Waymo vehicles utilize LiDAR rigs on their vehicles, which made them “stick out like a sore thumb.”

“In contrast, the robotaxis blended in with other Teslas on the road; we felt inconspicuous flowing with the traffic,” he added.

The next big victory went in the way of Robotaxi once again, and it concerned perhaps the most important metric in the ridesharing experience: price.

He continued in the note:

“Confirming our thesis, robotaxi was half the price of Uber, showing its ability to win market share by weaponizing price.”

In terms of overall performance, Dorsheimer noted that both platforms provided safe and “top-notch” experiences. However, there was one distinction between the two and it provided a clear consensus on which was better.

He said:

“In Austin, we took multiple robotaxi and Waymo rides; the contrast was clear. Aside from the visual difference between each pulling up to the curb, the robotaxi was comfortable and familiar, and it felt as though a friendly ghost chauffeur was driving our personal car. Driving was smooth and human-like, recognizing and patiently waiting for pedestrians, switching into less crowded lanes, patiently waiting to execute a safe unprotected turn, and yet, discerning and confident enough to drive through a light that just turned yellow, so as not to slam on the brakes.

Waymo also provided a top-notch service, and we did not encounter any safety concerns, but if we were to be overly critical, it felt more … robotic. In the cabin, you have to listen to an airline-esque preamble on Waymo and safety protocols, and during the ride, you can hear all the various spinning lidar sensors spooling up and down with electronic whizzing sounds.”

Tesla Robotaxi provides an experience that seems to be more catered toward a realistic ride experience. You can control the music, the cabin temperature, and transitioning your travel from one vehicle to the next during a trip will continue your entertainment experience.

If your first trip ends in the middle of a song, your next trip will pick up the music where it left off.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s experience sounds as if it is more focused on rider expectations, and not necessarily providing a ride that felt catered to the occupants. Still, what’s important is that both platforms provided safe rides.

Dorsheimer ended the note with one last tidbit:

“In short, robotaxi felt like a more luxurious service for half the cost and the driving felt more human-like.”

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Tesla offers new deal on used inventory that you won’t want to pass up

Tesla opened up lease deals on used Model 3 and Model Y inventory in California and Texas on Tuesday, marking the first time it has launched the option on pre-owned cars.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is offering a new deal on its used vehicle inventory that consumers looking for a great deal won’t want to pass up.

Traditionally, Tesla has not allowed potential car buyers to lease its used inventory. The only two options were to buy with cash or finance it through Tesla or a bank.

However, with the elimination of the $7,500 new and $4,000 used EV tax credits, Tesla is breaking its own rules and is now offering lease deals on its used vehicle inventory, but only in a couple of states, as of right now.

Tesla is ready with a perfect counter to the end of US EV tax credits

Tesla opened up lease deals on used Model 3 and Model Y inventory in California and Texas on Tuesday, marking the first time it has launched the option on pre-owned cars.

The deals are tremendous and can cost as little as $0 down and under $225 per month for some vehicles.

Tesla also allows customers to buy the vehicle at the end of their lease deal, which enables some really great ways to end up an owner of the car you plan to drive for the next two or three years.

The lease deal also helps Tesla rid itself of older vehicles that might not be of future use to the company. It formerly planned to use leased vehicles in its eventual Robotaxi fleet, but many of the cars in its used inventory have Hardware 3, which is less capable than Hardware 4, which is installed in the new Model 3 and Model Y.

More importantly, Tesla is giving people yet another way to be in the market for a Tesla before the tax credit ends on September 30.

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Tesla Model Y L might not come to the U.S., and it’s a missed opportunity

The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla’s new Model Y L might not come to the U.S., CEO Elon Musk said this morning.

It’s a missed opportunity, and I’m not the only one who feels this way.

In the past, I have personally written a handful of articles about what Tesla owners have been wanting in the United States: a full-sized SUV, or at least a vehicle that is larger than the Model Y but less of a crossover than the Model X.

Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast

The only thing that Tesla has announced that even slightly matches this sort of idea is the Robovan, which is, optimistically, several years off because it lacks a steering wheel and pedals and will require Full Self-Driving to be fully autonomous.

Even if Tesla launches FSD next year, it will take a year or two to figure out manufacturing, go through regulatory hurdles with the EPA, and eventually enter mass production for customers.

The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.

However, Musk said it won’t come to the U.S. until next year, and that it “might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America.”

To be blunt, I’m not sure if I truly believe that Musk thinks the Model Y L won’t come to the U.S. Some believe he said this to not Osborne Effect Model Y sales here, which seems more likely than anything.

Tesla Model Y L gets disappointingly far production date in the United States

People have been buying the Model Y for two years more than any other car in the world. To act as if many families would not appreciate the extra space seems very strange; a big complaint with the Model Y is that it simply does not fit larger families.

If you have four kids, you’re forced into the Model X, which might be too expensive for some families, as it starts at $79,990.

While Tesla’s focus is undoubtedly on autonomy, it is important to remember that some people still really enjoy the act of driving their cars. Tesla has worked very hard to create a fun and sporty driving experience, especially in the new Model Y. Many consumers, including myself, like to take advantage of that.

Autonomy might eventually take over human driving completely, but in the near term, it does not seem as if that is the case. Even if someone were interested in never driving again, this longer and more spacious Model Y L would be an ideal option for American families that need the room for at least six passengers.

Quite a few big names in the Tesla community share this sentiment:

More than likely, Musk does not want to announce a more attractive option than the current Model Y, as many consumers would likely wait a year or two for the L in an effort to have more space.

In all honesty, I see the Model Y L coming to the United States, as it truly fits the bill as an ideal car for the modern American family.

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