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SpaceX aces Starlink launch, landing, and catch as Elon Musk teases public beta ETA
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket has successfully launched the 12th batch of ~60 operational Starlink satellites, bringing more than 19 days of delays and five separate launch attempts to a welcome close.
SpaceX’s Starlink-12 success comes in the midst of an unusual scourge of launch scrubs and aborts that began with United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) latest Delta IV Heavy launch and continued with both SpaceX’s Starlink-12 and GPS III SV04 missions. Largely coincidental, the only direct ties between the myriad ULA and SpaceX delays were the occasional bout of bad weather and the US Air Force-organized launch range’s prioritization of ULA’s multibillion-dollar spy satellite launch – forcing SpaceX to stand down during ULA launch attempts.
As of now, ULA’s NROL-44 Delta IV Heavy launch is entering the sixth week of delays since the mission’s first late-August launch attempt and has no firm date set for the next attempt At the same time, during SpaceX’s first GPS III SV04 launch attempt, Falcon 9 suffered a rare last-second launch abort due to a propulsion problem that will likely take a week or more to resolve.
Thankfully, SpaceX’s patience with Starlink-12 ultimately paid off, and the mission was a spectacular success, launching shortly after dawn and culminating with a flawless Falcon 9 booster landing, record-breaking fairing catch, and another batch of 60 satellites in orbit. The first US-built rocket to launch NASA astronauts in almost a decade and also the current world-record holder for fastest reuse of an orbital-class rocket, Falcon 9 booster B1058 completed its third launch and landing in support of Starlink-12.
The mission was also the first time SpaceX has reused a Falcon 9 payload fairing twice – flying the same fairing half for the third time, in other words. Incredibly, SpaceX recovery ship GO Ms. Tree (formerly Mr. Steven) actually managed to catch the thrice-flown fairing in its football field-sized net, potentially guaranteeing a fourth flight. The catch was SpaceX’s seventh overall (since June 2019) and its fourth fairing catch since July 2020, a strong sign that the company is honing in on consistent, repeatable catches.
Aside from rocket reusability, CEO Elon Musk also unexpectedly revealed that Starlink-12 pushed SpaceX past a major Starlink milestone, stating that “once these satellites reach their target position, [SpaceX] will be able to roll out a fairly wide public beta in [the] northern US & hopefully southern Canada.”
Prior to Musk’s October 6th tweet, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell had revealed in May 2020 that SpaceX would be ready to kick off the first public Starlink internet beta tests after Launch 14. Given that SpaceX has deorbited almost two-thirds of the first batch of 60 Starlink “v0.9” beta satellites, that 14-flight milestone is likely another two launches out.
Based on past launches and assuming that all 60 Starlink-12 spacecraft are healthy, the satellites should be able to power up ion thrusters and climb to operational orbits (i.e. “reach their target position[s]” within 4-5 weeks. With an unprecedented constellation of 700+ Starlink satellites in orbit, SpaceX’s first “fairly wide” public beta test could begin as early as November 2020.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
News
Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions are not dead, they’re still in the works
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions appeared to be dead in the water after a large amount of speculation late last year that the company would add the user interface seemed to cool down after several weeks of reports.
However, it appears that CarPlay might make its way to Tesla vehicles after all, as a recent report seems to indicate that it is still being worked on by software teams for the company.
The real question is whether it is truly needed or if it is just a want by so many owners that Tesla is listening and deciding to proceed with its development.
Back in November, Bloomberg reported that Tesla was in the process of testing Apple CarPlay within its vehicles, which was a major development considering the company had resisted adopting UIs outside of its own for many years.
Nearly one-third of car buyers considered the lack of CarPlay as a deal-breaker when buying their cars, a study from McKinsey & Co. outlined. This could be a driving decision in Tesla’s inability to abandon the development of CarPlay in its vehicles, especially as it lost a major advantage that appealed to consumers last year: the $7,500 EV tax credit.
Tesla owners propose interesting theory about Apple CarPlay and EV tax credit
Although we saw little to no movement on it since the November speculation, Tesla is now reportedly in the process of still developing the user interface. Mark Gurman, a Bloomberg writer with a weekly newsletter, stated that CarPlay is “still in the works” at Tesla and that more concrete information will be available “soon” regarding its development.
While Tesla already has a very capable and widely accepted user interface, CarPlay would still be an advantage, considering many people have used it in their vehicles for years. Just like smartphones, many people get comfortable with an operating system or style and are resistant to using a new one. This could be a big reason for Tesla attempting to get it in their own cars.
Tesla gets updated “Apple CarPlay” hack that can work on new models
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
It holds one distinct advantage over Tesla’s UI in my opinion, and that’s the ability to read and respond to text messages, which is something that is available within a Tesla, but is not as user-friendly.
With that being said, I would still give CarPlay a shot in my Tesla. I didn’t particularly enjoy it in my Bronco Sport, but that was because Ford’s software was a bit laggy with it. If it were as smooth as Tesla’s UI, which I think it would be, it could be a really great addition to the vehicle.
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
