News
SpaceX preparing salvo of polar Starlink launches from West and East coasts
SpaceX has unexpectedly filed regulatory documents requesting permission to perform at least half a dozen polar Starlink satellite launches from its East Coast facilities, hinting at a two-pronged approach as work continues to reactive SpaceX’s lone West Coast launch pad.
Known as Space Launch Complex 4 (SLC-4), SpaceX last used its Vandenberg Air/Space Force Base (VAFB) pad to launch a joint primarily European Earth observation satellite in November 2020 – itself the site’s first launch since June 2019. In April 2021, comments made by SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell revealed plans to return its VAFB site to active use as early as “summer” 2021 – July, in other words.
Over the next two months, a new Port of Long Beach lease for West Coast drone ship operations, FCC launch application requests, and the westbound shipment of a Falcon 9 booster strongly supported Shotwell’s claim. Most recently, drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) completed the first leg of its journey from Florida to California, arriving at the Panama Canal’s Atlantic locks on June 20th. That progress has all but guaranteed that SpaceX’s West Coast launch resurgence will have a drone ship to support booster recoveries – pad, rocket, and satellites permitting – well before the end of July.
Now, though, new SpaceX FCC permit applications suggest that the company intends to begin dedicated polar launches from the East Coast as early as July 26th. That means that SpaceX could theoretically complete its first two dedicated polar Starlink launches next month if things go smoothly. Given that SpaceX’s East Coast launch facilities are already active and have been running like a well-oiled machine over the last ~12 months, plans to simultaneously begin polar Starlink launches from the East and West coasts could also serve as a hedge against any delays that might crop up while reactivating SLC-4E.
In the event of delays, SpaceX would thus still have a feasible path to complete its first dedicated polar Starlink launch before the end of the month, potentially leaving it on track to complete around a dozen such missions before the end of the year.
Just last month, Starlink passed a major milestone with SpaceX’s 28th successful launch of v1.0 satellites, effectively completing the constellation’s first orbital ‘shell’ of ~1600 spacecraft. Technically, around 1100 of those satellites are operational and the other ~530 are still in the processing of boosting themselves to their final orbits, but that’s just a matter of time. Once all of spacecraft already in orbit complete that process, the Starlink constellation will be able to deliver uninterrupted internet to almost anybody on Earth.
Another identical semi-equatorial batch of ~1584 satellites is planned to flesh out the Starlink Phase 1 constellation and improve bandwidth density but to achieve true global coverage, another ~1250 polar Starlink satellites are necessary. In Starlink’s first ~4400-satellite phase, those polar-orbiting spacecraft are split between three ‘shells’ with slightly different orbits and inclinations to increase the breadth of their coverage as much as possible. Notably, polar Starlink satellites will offer truly uninterrupted coverage anywhere on Earth – not just land-based users outside of polar latitudes.
With laser interlinks installed, those polar satellites will also allow Starlink to break into the lucrative in-flight and maritime communications markets and serve unprecedentedly high-quality internet to people in the air and at sea. They’ll also open up Starlink to many of the four million or so people living in the Arctic Circle.
While East Coast polar Starlink launches will be less efficient and likely have to carry fewer satellites, simultaneously flying from the East and West Coast could allow SpaceX to launch the constellation’s ~1250 polar satellites in just 12-18 months while still performing regular equatorial launches at the same time.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
