News
SpaceX’s Starship rocket program just had one of its best nights yet
Before dawn on May 4th, SpaceX successfully fueled a full-scale Starship prototype and (partially) tested an installed Raptor engine for the first time ever – perhaps the Starship program’s best night yet.
While just a small test relative to what’s soon to come, the milestone is still an extremely significant one for SpaceX and its next-generation launch vehicle. Designed to launch atop the Super Heavy booster, both Starship and its booster are meant to be fully reusable, potentially making the launch system one of the cheapest in operation on Earth. Despite that unprecedented full reusability, they should still be able to place dozens (perhaps up to 100-150+) metric tons of payload into orbit in a single launch.
To get to that point, however, SpaceX must develop and demonstrate a cornucopia of technologies and approaches – most of which are unprecedented – at a scale unmatched by ever other launch vehicle in history, save two or three. It was perhaps the most fundamental of those steps that was on the table earlier this morning.
Perhaps the single most important and uncertain part of SpaceX’s ambitious Starship architecture, SpaceX’s May 4th wet dress rehearsal (WDR) was mainly a test of Starship’s overall structure and the manufacturing apparatus SpaceX has created to build it. Despite how exotic and challenging some of Starship’s goals may sound, SpaceX’s approach to production for its newest launch vehicle is arguably the single biggest risk for the program.
Notably, CEO Elon Musk says that the ultimate goal is to roll out a single finished Starship rocket every single week and at a cost of something like $5-10 million per vehicle. Including the Super Heavy booster, the production goals of which remain unknown, SpaceX effectively wants to mass-produce dozens of fully-reusable rockets – all larger (and potentially more capable) than NASA’s Saturn V Moon rocket – for anywhere from a tenth to a hundredth of the cost.
As if those goals weren’t ambitious enough, SpaceX intends to achieve them with perhaps the most spartan, minimalist factory ever attempted for orbital-class rockets. At the moment, all Starship hardware built by SpaceX to date has been manufactured in a series of tents, more recently graduating to a trio of warehouse-sized sprung structures. A large hangar – apparently dedicated to building pad infrastructure – is just shy of complete, while a separate windbreak structure and a vertical assembly building (VAB) are used to stack (assemble) full-scale Starship subsections built inside tents.
Unlike almost every other launch vehicle in history, Starship production – excluding its Raptor engines and certain other subassemblies and parts – is done in tents and is almost entirely divorced of the clean room operations rocket factories are famous for. Despite the extensive use of hand-welded seams and parts on SpaceX’s early Starship prototypes, the company has already proven that it’s well on its way to building Starships in just a week or two.
While it appears that SpaceX only performed a partial wet dress rehearsal with liquid methane and oxygen and completed a test of part of Starship SN4’s installed Raptor engine (known as the preburner), it means that a Starship has survived a truly launch vehicle-like procedure for the first time ever. In other words, Starship SN4’s May 4th success served as SpaceX’s most important verification yet that its exotic Starship manufacturing approach could be viable for building actual orbital-class rockets.
Up next, SpaceX will attempt to perform a full wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and a static fire test of Starship SN4 and its lone Raptor engine. That test attempt could come as soon as this evening.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
News
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China held steady in November with around 73,000 units delivered, but a closer look at the Model Y L’s numbers hints at an emerging shift towards pricier variants that could very well be boosting average selling prices and margins.
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla China’s November domestic numbers
Data from the a Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicated that Tesla China saw domestic deliveries of about 73,000 vehicles in November 2025. This number included 34,000 standard Model Y units, 26,000 Model 3 units, and 13,000 Model Y L units, as per industry watchers.
This means that the Model Y L accounted for roughly 27% of Tesla China’s total Model Y sales, despite the variant carrying a ~28% premium over the base RWD Model Y that is estimated to have dominated last year’s mix.
As per industry watcher @TSLAFanMtl, this suggests that Tesla China’s sales have moved towards more premium variants this year. Thus, direct year-over-year sales comparisons might miss the bigger picture. This is true even for the regular Model Y, as another premium trim, the Long Range RWD variant, was also added to the lineup this 2025.
November 2025 momentum
While Tesla China’s overall sales this year have seen challenges, the Model Y and Model 3 have remained strong sellers in the country. This is especially impressive as the Model Y and Model 3 are premium-priced vehicles, and they compete in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. Tesla China is also yet to roll out the latest capabilities of FSD in China, which means that its vehicles in the country could not tap into their latest capabilities yet.
Aggregated results from November suggest that the Tesla Model Y took the crown as China’s #1 best-selling SUV during the month, with roughly 34,000 deliveries. With the Model Y L, this number is even higher. The Tesla Model 3 also had a stellar month, seeing 25,700 deliveries during November 2025.
Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck earns IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award
To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
The Tesla Cybertruck has achieved the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s (IIHS) highest honor, earning a Top Safety Pick+ rating for 2025 models built after April 2025.
The full-size electric pickup truck’s safety rating is partly due to the vehicle’s strong performance in updated crash tests, superior front crash prevention, and effective headlights, among other factors. To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
Cybertruck’s IIHS rating
As per the IIHS, beginning with 2025 Cybertruck models built after April 2025, changes were made to the front underbody structure and footwell to improve occupant safety in driver-side and passenger-side small overlap front crashes. The moderate overlap front test earned a good rating, and the updated side impact test also received stellar marks.
The Cybertruck’s front crash prevention earned a good rating in pedestrian scenarios, with the standard Collision Avoidance Assist avoiding collisions in day and night tests across child, adult crossing, and parallel paths. Headlights with high-beam assist compensated for limitations, contributing to the top award.
Safest and most autonomous pickup
The Cybertruck is one of only two full-size pickups to receive the IIHS’ Top Safety Pick + rating. It is also the only one equipped with advanced self-driving features via Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system. Thanks to FSD, the Cybertruck can navigate inner city streets and highways on its own with minimal supervision, adding a layer of safety beyond passive crash protection.
Community reactions poured in, with users praising the vehicle’s safety rating amidst skepticism from critics. Tesla itself highlighted this by starting its X post with a short clip of a Cybertruck critic who predicted that the vehicle will likely not pass safety tests. The only question now is, of course, if the vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating from the IIHS will help the Cybertruck improve its sales.
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
