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SpaceX wants to launch its next Starship ASAP
Contrary to recent comments from CEO Elon Musk, SpaceX appears to be forging ahead at full speed in a bid to launch its next Starship ASAP.
Known as Starship serial number 10 (SN10), the prototype is the latest in a series of four ships SpaceX has ultimately set aside from low(er)-altitude development testing. Starship SN8 – the first functional prototype to reach its full height – debuted on December 8th, 2020, blowing expectations out of the water with a failure mere seconds before the end of a more than six-minute flight test. According to Musk, had a fuel tank remained properly pressurized from start to finish, SN8 could have very well stuck the landing on the first try.
Two months later, after the better part of two weeks of licensing and static fire test delays, Starship SN9 attempted to carry the torch forward but suffered an unrelated failure slightly earlier than SN8’s. One of two Raptor engines failed to ignite for a high-risk flip and landing burn, causing the Starship to impact the ground even more violently than its predecessor. It’s unclear why the ill-fated Raptor failed to ignite or why the engine that did ignite appeared to experience a major failure shortly thereafter but rocket propulsion is extraordinarily difficult – and Raptor is near – or at – the end of that scale.
While SpaceX obviously hasn’t spun around and fixed a complex Starship propulsion issue in a matter of days, Musk eventually revealed his opinion that he, his engineers, or some combination of both “were too dumb” to exploit one obvious way to mitigate the risk of engine failure during flip and landing. That ‘obvious’ tweak: reignite all three of Starship’s available landing engines, not just two.
In theory, with a fast-enough response time, Starship could ignite all three Raptors, perform a supercharged flip from a belly- to tail-down orientation, and selectively shut off one of the engines based on the data from what is essentially a midair static fire. In the event that all three engines are performing nominally, Starship would shut down the least useful engine (i.e. the Raptor with the least leverage) for a gentle two-engine landing burn.
That said, the ship landing burn has a clear solution. My greatest concern is achieving good payload to orbit with rapid & full reusability, without which we shall forever be confined to Earth.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 5, 2021
Impressively, Musk said that SpaceX would implement those changes immediately, attempting the first three-engine reignition as early as Starship SN10’s launch debut. Already at the launch pad when Starship SN9 lifted off, SpaceX revealed plans to launch SN10 as early as February 2021 at the end of SN9’s test flight webcast.
A few days prior to SN9’s ill-fated test flight, Musk had also stated that Starship SN10 would perform a “cryoproof” test and only then have its three Raptor engines installed. Instead, in an apparent change of plans, SpaceX installed Starship SN10’s Raptors – SN39, SN50, and an unknown third engine – from February 5th to 7th.
On Sunday, local longtime resident Mary (aka BocaChicaGal) received an official safety alert from SpaceX, signaling plans for an explosive Starship test of some kind as early as Monday, February 8th. Historically, those overpressure safety warnings have only been distributed when SpaceX is preparing for a Starship static fire attempt. In other words, it’s possible that Starship SN10’s very first test could be a live wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with flammable liquid oxygen and methane propellant. If that WDR goes well, SpaceX could move directly into a one, two, or three-engine static fire.
Of course, as SN9’s lengthy test period rubbed in, Starship is still in the prototype stage and is far from a mature system, meaning that it’s always safer to expect delays than an on-time performance. To be clear, it’s far more likely that SpaceX will perform a familiar “cryo proof” test with non-flammable liquid nitrogen – perhaps hoping to complete a cryoproof and static fire in the same test window.
Either way, stay tuned for updates and follow along with NASASpaceflight’s excellent live coverage in the event that SpaceX really is prepared to static fire Starship SN10 between 9am and 6pm CST (UTC-6) on Monday.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
