Investor's Corner
Tesla delivery forecast set to surge 33% in 2022: Wedbush
Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivery forecast is set to surge by one-third in 2022 from 2021, according to a new investor note from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. Ives, a Tesla bull, believes the company’s delivery numbers could grow by as much as 300,000 vehicles in the next year, as the company focuses on meeting the one million vehicle delivery mark this year.
Tesla’s 2021 delivery target is “in the vicinity” of between 840,000 and 1,000,000 units, CEO Elon Musk said during the Q4 2020 Earnings Call in January. After delivering just under 500,000 vehicles in 2020, Tesla planned to increase its production and delivery targets toward the one million unit mark but never explicitly implied that it would set that figure as an official goal.
Tesla Model 3 production line in Gigafactory 3, Shanghai, China. (Credit: Tesla)
Recently, a leaked email from Musk to employees prepared them for “the biggest wave in Tesla history” as Q3 2021 comes to a close in just two weeks. The company has accumulated just over 386,000 deliveries so far this year, putting it slightly behind schedule for one million units in 2021. However, the company has consistently performed very well in the final two quarters of the year, so it is not necessarily out of reach.
A new note from Dan Ives of Wedbush slates an impressive 1.3 million units for 2022, putting Tesla in the talks of leading the green tidal wave as electrification continues to improve and companies focus on EVs instead of combustion engine vehicles. Ives believes Tesla is still at the helm of the sector, leading other manufacturers through the tough transition to electrification while influencing a global transformation in the automotive industry.
In a nutshell, competition is increasing from all angles in this EV arms race which has been an overhang over Tesla and the overall sector, however, this is just the start of an EV transformation that will change the auto industry for the coming decades with Tesla leading the charge,” Ives said in his note. “With EVs representing 3% of overall autos globally and poised to hit 10% by 2025, there will be much more competition in a massively increasing share of the global auto market.”
It’s no secret Tesla is going to face some stiff competition in the coming years as more companies appear or transition to EVs. In pure electrics, Tesla will spar with Rivian and Lucid mostly, while companies transitioning from ICE to EVs, like Ford and GM, have a broader consumer base but less robust technology. Nevertheless, Tesla’s competition will continue to become more prevalent in the coming years, but Ives believes the automaker can undoubtedly lead the charge and benefit from the growth of EVs. In the note, the analyst stated that Tesla will be a “disproportional beneficiary” of the broader consumer adoption toward EVs in the next few years.
-->Ives is ranked 30th out of 7,641 analysts on TipRanks. He has a success rate of 76% and an average return of 36.5%. He holds a Buy rating on Tesla with a price target of $1,000. At the time of writing, Tesla shares traded at around $755.80.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Tesla bear gets blunt with beliefs over company valuation
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