A chairman from China-based battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) recently cast doubt on Tesla’s 4680 battery cell, saying that he didn’t think it would be successful in the long run.
In a conversation earlier this year, CATL Chairman Robin Zeng told Elon Musk that the cylindrical 4680 battery “is going to fail and never be successful,” according to a report from Reuters this week. Zeng made the statements to Musk in a meeting with the Tesla CEO on his Beijing visit in April, and the chairman also said that the Tesla CEO was better equipped to handle other technologies than battery cells.
“We had a very big debate, and I showed him,” Zeng said. “He was silent. He doesn’t know how to make a battery. It’s about electrochemistry. He’s good for the chips, the software, the hardware, the mechanical things.”
Tesla working on four dry cathode 4680 battery variants: The Information
Tesla’s 4680 battery cell and CATL licensing
In September, Tesla announced that it had produced its 100 millionth 4680 battery cell at Gigafactory Texas, after reaching 50 million units in June. The company is also in the process of expanding its Gigafactory Nevada to add a dedicated 4680 cell production facility, expected to ramp up to 500 GWh in the long term.
The report also highlights a licensing deal Tesla has with CATL for technology related to producing batteries in Nevada, expected to officially launch in 2025, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters under the condition of anonymity.
Zeng on FSD Supervised and Musk’s promise timelines
In addition to discussing battery technology, the chairman said that he and Musk talked about the company’s focus on autonomy, adding that he agrees with Tesla’s overall approach to the topic. Unlike other companies that are developing self-driving systems, Tesla’s Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) only utilizes cameras as sensors, rather than using multiple layers of different redundant technologies.
“He’s all in,” Zeng told Reuters regarding Musk and Tesla’s FSD strategy in a statement earlier this month. “I think it’s a good direction.”
Despite his support for the company’s approach to FSD Supervised, Zeng also noted that he thinks Musk tends to set unrealistic timelines for new vehicle technologies, and he even asked the Tesla CEO during the April conversation, saying two-year timelines may as well be “infinity.”
“His problem is overpromising. I talked to him,” the chairman added. “Maybe something needs five years. But he says two years. I definitely asked him why. He told me he wanted to push people.”
Musk has addressed criticisms of his timelines before, pointing to his optimism as a necessary part of his accomplishments.
While certainly not perfect, my batting average for most predictions is quite good.
My schedule optimism, without which I probably wouldn’t even have tried to do many endeavors, gets the best of me sometimes, but I always deliver in the end.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 30, 2023
“Now, admittedly I’m a little optimistic sometimes,” Musk said during this year’s Annual Shareholders Meeting. “You know, I don’t have a complete lack of self awareness. But if I wasn’t optimistic, this wouldn’t exist this factory wouldn’t exist.”
The CEO later went on to add that he believes he’s been “pathologically optimistic from birth.”
CATL hopes for U.S. factory under Trump
CATL also told Reuters that it would build a U.S. production facility if President-elect Donald Trump would allow it.
“Originally, when we wanted to invest in the U.S., the U.S. government said no,” Zeng said. “For me, I’m really open-minded.”
“I do hope that in the future they are open to investments,” the chairman added.
In August, Trump expressed that he would be open to Chinese companies building factories in the U.S., despite the country’s recent passage of a 100-percent tariff on electric vehicle (EV) imports.
“We’re going to give incentives, and if China and other countries want to come here and sell the cars, they’re going to build plants here, and they’re going to hire our workers,” Trump said in a statement to the publication in August.
What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.
CATL’s new LFP cell has 620+ miles of range and ultra-fast charging
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
