Investor's Corner
Tesla registers more than 6k new Model 3 VINs, estimated ~100% dual motor AWD
Tesla recently registered a large batch of 6,032 new Model 3 VINs, with almost all of the filings corresponding to the Dual Motor AWD variant of the compact electric car. The new vehicle identification registrations come at a time when Tesla is actively pushing its deliveries for the Model 3.
The new batch of Model 3 Dual Motor AWD VINs was reported by Twitter watchdog group @Model3VINs, which tracks Tesla’s registrations for the vehicle. According to the group, Tesla’s recent filing — which numbers 6,032 new VINs that are estimated to be ~100% Dual Motor AWD — has brought the company’s total number of Model 3 registrations to 69,601 units.
#Tesla registered 6,032 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 69601. https://t.co/rVcbmKt2r0
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) July 11, 2018
This recent filing stands as yet another sign that Tesla is well on its way to sustaining its production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week this third quarter. The production milestone was finally attained by the company during the final week of June, but it did not escape criticism from the company’s doubters, some of whom predicted that the Model 3’s 5,000/week “burst” production would be unsustainable. These doubts, together with lower than expected Model 3 deliveries revealed in Tesla’s Q2 2018 delivery and production report, ultimately caused the company’s stocks to tumble last week.
Since then, however, signs have emerged pointing to the idea that Tesla would be able to sustain its 5,000/week production rate for the Model 3 this third quarter. Just recently, reports emerged from the Tesla community that the company had rolled out configurator emails to all Model 3 reservation holders. This was followed by an encouraging trend displayed by Bloomberg‘s Model 3 production tracker, which currently forecasts that Tesla would be able to sustain its “burst” production rate of 5,000 vehicles per week for the next three weeks. Bloomberg‘s Model 3 production tracker has become more accurate over the past few months, with the system only being 2% off its estimates for Tesla’s Q2 figures for the compact electric car. With this in mind, there is a pretty fair chance of the tracker’s favorable forecast for Model 3 production would prove to be accurate.
Bloomberg’s Tesla Model 3 tracker as of 7/11/18. [Credit: Bloomberg]
Tesla has also started changing its strategy for the Model 3. Since the vehicle reservations exceeded the company’s estimates, Tesla has embarked on an initiative to anti-sell the compact electric car. CEO Elon Musk, for one, noted on Twitter that the Model 3, while newer than the Model S, is not a superior vehicle. Tesla’s official website also included a table comparing the Model S favorably to the Model 3, both in features and in availability. Despite this anti-selling, however, Model 3 reservations remained high, with Tesla most recently confirming that it still has a backlog of 420,000 orders for the electric car.
With the release of configurator emails for reservation holders and the rollout of programs such as test drives in selected stores, as well as a new 5-minute “Sign & Drive” delivery system, Tesla appears to have stopped anti-selling the Model 3. The Model 3, after all, would likely determine whether Tesla could achieve its target of becoming profitable this third or fourth quarter.
Overall, filings such as today’s batch of 6,032 new Model 3 Dual Motor AWD VINs are encouraging for Tesla. The company, after all, is only producing the Model 3 Performance with Dual Motor AWD for now. Among the Model 3’s variants, the Performance trim, which comes with Dual Motor AWD as default, features a healthy profit margin, with the vehicle starting at $64,000. With this in mind, this newest batch of Model 3 filings, provided that the cars do get delivered this third quarter, could definitely help Tesla’s profitability goals this Q3 2018.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reported its Q4 2025 production and deliveries, with 418,227 vehicles delivered and 434,358 produced worldwide. Energy storage deployments hit a quarterly record at 14.2 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results were posted on Friday, January 2, 2026.
Q4 2025 production and deliveries
In Q4 2025, Tesla produced 422,652 Model 3/Y units and 11,706 other models, which are comprised of the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck, for a total of 434,358 vehicles. Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Energy deployments reached 14.2 GWh, a new record. Similar to other reports, Tesla posted a company thanked customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters for its fourth quarter results.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate that Tesla would deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems in Q4 2025.
Tesla’s Full Year 2025 results
For the full year, Tesla produced a total of 1,654,667 vehicles, comprised of 1,600,767 Model Y/3 and 53,900 other models. Tesla also delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in FY 2025, comprised of 1,585,279 Model Y/3 and 50,850 other models. Energy deployments totaled 46.7 GWh over the year.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus expected the company to deliver a total of 1,640,752 vehicles for full year 2025. Analysts also expected Tesla’s energy division to deploy a total of 45.9 GWh during the year.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call is expected to be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.
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