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Tesla AI Day: What to expect

Credit: @DennisHongRobot/Twitter

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Tesla’s AI Day is tomorrow, and the company has been largely silent about details of the upcoming event. Considering how artificial intelligence plays into Tesla’s energy and electric vehicle business, it is no surprise that there is some excitement for AI Day. With this in mind, here are some things that Tesla watchers could expect for the highly-anticipated event.

Updates from Autonomy Day

Tesla bull and Loup Ventures Managing Partner Gene Munster previously noted that AI Day would likely be a “second edition” of sorts for the company’s Autonomy Day event back in 2019. The invitations that have been sent for AI Day suggest that the company is looking to expand its AI use to more than just vehicles. This is something that Elon Musk has mentioned in the past. 

During the Q1 2021 earnings call, Musk stated that in the long run, people would start perceiving Tesla as an “AI robotics company” instead of a carmaker or battery storage producer. “I think long term, people will think of Tesla as much as an AI robotics company as we are a car company or an energy company. I think we are developing one of the strongest hardware and software AI teams in the world,” Musk said. 

If AI Day does become a follow-up to Autonomy Day, however, Tesla would likely have to discuss some of the updates it has rolled out to its vehicles and self-driving efforts since 2019. These include the removal of radar for the Model 3 and Model Y, which Musk expects would ultimately accelerate the company’s progress towards autonomous driving. 

Credit: Whole Mars Catalog/YouTube

Project Dojo Details

Tesla’s Dojo Supercomputer has long been teased, but its specs and capabilities have never really been revealed by the company. AI Day would be a great venue to formally introduce the world to its supercomputer and its capabilities. Dojo is crucial to Tesla’s self-driving efforts as the computer is tasked with training neural networks that would, in turn, enable the company’s vehicles to behave even more like cautious and confident human drivers on the road. 

Gene Munster noted that based on Elon Musk’s previous comments, it appears that Tesla has plans to make Dojo available to other automakers in the future. This should help not just Tesla but the entire auto industry transition into the self-driving era. Musk definitely seems optimistic about Dojo’s contribution to Tesla’s self-driving efforts, which have been both highly praised and criticized to date. 

“Dojo is really a — it is a supercomputer optimized for neural net training. We think Dojo will be, probably in order of magnitude, more efficient on, say — not sure what the exact right metric is, but say, per frame of video, we think it will be an order of magnitude more cost efficient in hardware and in energy usage for a frame of video compared to a GPU-based solution or compared to the next best solution that we’re aware of. So then possibly that could be used by others,” Musk stated. 

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Credit: Tesla

Beyond Automotive and Energy

Tesla already uses AI on its electric vehicles, and the company’s products like Autobidder show that artificial intelligence could also be invaluable for the energy sector. Interestingly enough, Tesla seems to be intent on expanding beyond these markets, with the company teasing more AI-based efforts in its formal invitation. 

“This invite-only event will feature a keynote by Elon, hardware and software demos from Tesla engineers, test rides in Model S Plaid, and more. Attendees will be among the first to see our latest developments in supercomputing and neural network training. They’ll also get an inside look at what’s next for AI at Tesla beyond our vehicle fleet,” Tesla wrote. 

Elon Musk has hinted at other “smart” products in the past. During his first appearance at the Joe Rogan Experience podcast in 2018, Musk has stated that it would be great to develop a “Tesla Smart Home” that includes an efficient HVAC system. Musk mentioned this once more in March 2020, when he noted that creating smart and energy-efficient home products would be great since Tesla is already developing a lot of the needed tech for its vehicles. 

TSLA Volatility

Tesla watchers and investors would likely have to get ready for some volatility after AI Day tomorrow. While Tesla’s dedicated events such as Autonomy Day and Battery Day were filled to the brim with information, and while both events were mainly for recruitment, TSLA stock ended up dipping the day after. The day after Battery Day in September 2020, for example, TSLA shares dropped 10% as critics pounced on the 4680 cells’ timetable and the fact that the company did not show a physical cell during its event. It will not be surprising if the same thing happens on Friday after AI Day. 

Tesla’s AI day is set to be held at Palo Alto, CA, on August 19, 2021, at 5 p.m. PDT. The event would likely be livestreamed as well. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla reports Q3 Earnings today: here’s what to expect

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Credit: TechOperator | X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.

Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.

Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong

For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:

  • Total Revenues: $28.34B
  • Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
  • Operating Margin: 2.5%
  • Operating Income: $721M
  • Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B

Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:

Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability

This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.

Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.

Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress

The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.

Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.

Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for

Say Investor Questions

  1. How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
  2. When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
  3. When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
  4. What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
  5. Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?

The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.

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SpaceX confirms Starship 15 launch window with massive ambitions

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.

CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.

SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms

The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:

This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”

Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.

The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.

The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.

As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.

Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX stock gets a slew of price target boosts after bullish earnings call

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Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.

SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.

Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.

The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.

SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms

Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.

Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.

These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:

  • JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
  • Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
  • Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
  • UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
  • TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
  • Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
  • Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.

Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.

The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.

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