Investor's Corner
Tesla bull Cathie Wood of ARK Invest explains why TSLA inspires even more confidence today
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) may have experienced a notable dive as of late, but Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has noted that she and her team remain incredibly optimistic about the electric car maker. Wood noted that ARK Invest is poised to release its updated forecast on TSLA stock in the next couple of weeks. And based on ARK’s observations about the EV maker, Wood noted that she and her team’s TSLA price targets would be considerably higher than before.
During her CNBC segment, the ARK Invest founder explained why she and her team now have more confidence in Tesla despite the arrival of competitors from legacy automakers. Wood explained that Tesla actually performed better than her already-bullish expectations, particularly when the company actually increased its market share in the electric vehicle sector as EVs from rival automakers were released. Wood also highlighted that Tesla’s self-driving strategy is shaping up to be extremely strategic, potentially allowing the electric car maker to take the lion’s share of the autonomous segment.
“We’re about to publish–I’m hoping it’s within a week or two–our new forecasts. Our confidence in Tesla has gone up for a number of reasons. One, it didn’t lose share of the electric vehicle market when all of the traditional luxury brand names started bringing their own electric vehicles to market. Now, we expected (TSLA) will lose share, but our expectation is that its share would go from 17% at the end of 2018 down to 11% as more electric vehicles were coming out. Instead, what happened was its share moved up to more than 20% and roughly 80% in the US market. Eighty percent of electric vehicles. So that’s the first source of confidence. Market share up, not down.
“The second is autonomous. We believe that Elon Musk, who, over the weekend, tweeted out that he would offer or Tesla would offer, FSD (Beta) to anyone who wanted it, saw an incredible burst in demand. So for him to be able to do that suggests to us that he’s going to be able to show us the way to autonomous much faster than most analysts and investors expect. So the probability we have put on Tesla really winning the lion’s share of the autonomous taxi network market in the United States, also has gone up. So you might imagine that price targets have gone up considerably,” Wood noted.
When asked about the possibility of Tesla entering a phase similar to Amazon–which grew rapidly but had its stock pushed down for almost a decade after peaking in 1999–Wood explained that the electric car maker would likely not have the same experience. The ARK Invest founder noted that Amazon’s stock slump actually represented a time when the e-commerce giant was investing all its funds into growing its business, which of course, paid off in the long run. Tesla, according to Wood, seems to have passed this point already, with the company investing aggressively and excelling in four key metrics.
-->“It is leading the charge, so to speak. So battery technology, costs lower than anyone else’s out there, and will remain lower. Artificial intelligence chip, it designed its own. No one else has designed its own chip. This is analogous to Apple in the day. Cellular companies Nokia, Ericsson, and Motorola, didn’t see the future. Apple did, and yet it couldn’t get Qualcomm or Intel to move quickly enough. It had to design its own chip, and of course, now Apple basically accounts for the lion’s share of all the profits from smartphones in the world. We think this is going to happen also with Tesla. Maybe not worldwide because we know China wants its own champion. But that AI chip that Tesla designed, our analyst said, was four years ahead of where NVIDIA was at the time.”
“They have more data collected than any other company by orders of magnitude, not just by any other company but by all other companies out there. Because the largest pool of data with the highest quality is going to win in the AI game. They have the largest pool of data. And finally, until very recently, Tesla was the only automobile manufacturer able to improve the performance of its cars with over-the-air software updates… What they’ve done is extraordinary, and I think this is their market share to lose. I think they’re in a very, very different place. Also, we’re not in the tech and telecom bust. We are 20 years later. All of the seeds for what is happening now were planted back then. Now they’re coming to fruition,” Wood remarked.
Watch Cathie Wood’s recent CNBC segment in the video below.
https://youtu.be/jreyOdXvvcI
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla FSD V14.2.1 is earning rave reviews from users in diverse conditions
Tesla FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe begin in Italy, France, and Germany
