Investor's Corner
Tesla bull Cathie Wood of ARK Invest explains why TSLA inspires even more confidence today
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) may have experienced a notable dive as of late, but Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has noted that she and her team remain incredibly optimistic about the electric car maker. Wood noted that ARK Invest is poised to release its updated forecast on TSLA stock in the next couple of weeks. And based on ARK’s observations about the EV maker, Wood noted that she and her team’s TSLA price targets would be considerably higher than before.
During her CNBC segment, the ARK Invest founder explained why she and her team now have more confidence in Tesla despite the arrival of competitors from legacy automakers. Wood explained that Tesla actually performed better than her already-bullish expectations, particularly when the company actually increased its market share in the electric vehicle sector as EVs from rival automakers were released. Wood also highlighted that Tesla’s self-driving strategy is shaping up to be extremely strategic, potentially allowing the electric car maker to take the lion’s share of the autonomous segment.
“We’re about to publish–I’m hoping it’s within a week or two–our new forecasts. Our confidence in Tesla has gone up for a number of reasons. One, it didn’t lose share of the electric vehicle market when all of the traditional luxury brand names started bringing their own electric vehicles to market. Now, we expected (TSLA) will lose share, but our expectation is that its share would go from 17% at the end of 2018 down to 11% as more electric vehicles were coming out. Instead, what happened was its share moved up to more than 20% and roughly 80% in the US market. Eighty percent of electric vehicles. So that’s the first source of confidence. Market share up, not down.
“The second is autonomous. We believe that Elon Musk, who, over the weekend, tweeted out that he would offer or Tesla would offer, FSD (Beta) to anyone who wanted it, saw an incredible burst in demand. So for him to be able to do that suggests to us that he’s going to be able to show us the way to autonomous much faster than most analysts and investors expect. So the probability we have put on Tesla really winning the lion’s share of the autonomous taxi network market in the United States, also has gone up. So you might imagine that price targets have gone up considerably,” Wood noted.
When asked about the possibility of Tesla entering a phase similar to Amazon–which grew rapidly but had its stock pushed down for almost a decade after peaking in 1999–Wood explained that the electric car maker would likely not have the same experience. The ARK Invest founder noted that Amazon’s stock slump actually represented a time when the e-commerce giant was investing all its funds into growing its business, which of course, paid off in the long run. Tesla, according to Wood, seems to have passed this point already, with the company investing aggressively and excelling in four key metrics.
“It is leading the charge, so to speak. So battery technology, costs lower than anyone else’s out there, and will remain lower. Artificial intelligence chip, it designed its own. No one else has designed its own chip. This is analogous to Apple in the day. Cellular companies Nokia, Ericsson, and Motorola, didn’t see the future. Apple did, and yet it couldn’t get Qualcomm or Intel to move quickly enough. It had to design its own chip, and of course, now Apple basically accounts for the lion’s share of all the profits from smartphones in the world. We think this is going to happen also with Tesla. Maybe not worldwide because we know China wants its own champion. But that AI chip that Tesla designed, our analyst said, was four years ahead of where NVIDIA was at the time.”
“They have more data collected than any other company by orders of magnitude, not just by any other company but by all other companies out there. Because the largest pool of data with the highest quality is going to win in the AI game. They have the largest pool of data. And finally, until very recently, Tesla was the only automobile manufacturer able to improve the performance of its cars with over-the-air software updates… What they’ve done is extraordinary, and I think this is their market share to lose. I think they’re in a very, very different place. Also, we’re not in the tech and telecom bust. We are 20 years later. All of the seeds for what is happening now were planted back then. Now they’re coming to fruition,” Wood remarked.
Watch Cathie Wood’s recent CNBC segment in the video below.
https://youtu.be/jreyOdXvvcI
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
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