Investor's Corner
Tesla starts setting the stage for the $35k base Model 3’s production ramp
Tesla’s production ramp for the Model 3 has not been easy for the company. Since starting the production of the electric sedan last year, the Model 3 ramp has been beset by multiple challenges, including bottlenecks in both the Fremont factory and Gigafactory 1. That said, Tesla appears to have hit its stride in manufacturing the electric sedan in Q3.
The company’s production and delivery numbers for the quarter are yet to be announced, but estimates, including those from Tesla’s staunchest critics from Wall Street, are high that the company has achieved its target of manufacturing and delivering more than 50,000 Model 3 in the third quarter. And this is despite the company only producing three variants of the electric sedan — the Long Range RWD, Dual Motor AWD, and Dual Motor Performance Model 3. The variant of the electric car that is designed to be a true disruptor in the auto industry — the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3 — is yet to enter production.
The absence of the $35,000 base trim Model 3 in Tesla’s lineup is one of the remaining bear thesis against the company. Some of Tesla’s more aggressive short-sellers even insist that the $35,000 Model 3 is a myth. Kelly Blue Book analyst Rebecca Lindland, who canceled her Model 3 reservation due to delays in the electric car’s production, previously noted to Forbes that she is not sure Tesla will ever make the vehicle.
“I’m not sure there will ever be any $35,000 cars. I think there’s a chance the company will eventually say they’re canceling that version because there wasn’t as much customer interest, that nobody wanted it,” she said.
Elon Musk begs to differ. Earlier this year, Musk noted that Tesla would need to hit its stride producing the higher-margin Model 3 variants before it can begin manufacturing the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3. Musk has since provided brief updates on the vehicle, such as its estimated start of production in Q1 2019, as well as an AWD Dual Motor option for the electric car. Tesla’s head of investor relations Martin Viecha provided an estimated timeline for the electric car’s production while facilitating a tour of Gigafactory 1 as well, stating that the $35,000 base Model 3’s would ramp “in the next eight months,” translating to an April or May rollout.
Considering recent updates from Tesla’s Model 3 ramp, it appears that the electric car maker is starting to make preparations for the vehicle’s production. Gigafactory 1, for example, is set to receive upgrades from Panasonic that would enable it to produce more battery cells. Yoshio Ito, head of Panasonic’s automotive business, noted that three new battery cell production lines would be completed sooner than the Japanese company’s initial “end-of-2018” estimate. Apart from this, Tesla is also receiving upgrades in the form of new Grohmann machines that are expected to be installed at the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4. The new Grohmann machines are designed to make module production in Gigafactory 1 three times faster and three times cheaper.
In the final weekend of Q3, updates from Elon Musk and the Tesla community suggested that the production ramp for the Model 3 is going even further. In an email to employees, Musk noted that production of Model 3 drive units had reached a rate of 10,000 per week. Reservation holders in forums such as the r/TeslaMotors subreddit have also noted that the estimated timeline for the $35,000 base Model 3 has remained consistent over the past months. As of October 1, reservation holders are given a 3-6 month timeline for the production of the $35,000 electric sedan.
The Tesla Model 3 is a critical part of Elon Musk’s Master Plan, which involved creating a mass-market car that is a preferable alternative to comparably-priced fossil fuel-powered vehicles. At $35,000, the Standard trim Model 3 would be in the same price range as some of America’s most ubiquitous cars like the Toyota Camry, whose top-of-the-line XSE V6 trim is priced at $34,950. Thus, if Tesla plays its cards right, the vehicle could become not just a top-selling electric car — it could very well be a fossil fuel car killer.
In true Tesla fashion, even the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3 is packed with features that are characteristic of the company. The base Model 3 has an estimated range of 220 miles per charge, a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds, and a top speed of 130 mph. Just like Tesla’s less affordable vehicles, the base Model 3 is fitted advanced safety features, including eight cameras, forward radar, and 12 ultrasonic sensors enabling active safety technologies including collision avoidance and automatic emergency braking. Six front row airbags and two side curtain airbags are also fitted on the entry-level vehicle.
Elon Musk
SpaceX to launch military missile tracking satellites through new Space Force contract
SpaceX wins a $178.5M Space Force contract to launch missile tracking satellites starting in 2027.
The U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX a $178.5 million task order on April 1, 2026 to launch missile tracking satellites for the Space Development Agency. The contract, designated SDA-4, covers two Falcon 9 launches beginning in Q3 2027, one from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida and one from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The satellites, built by Sierra Space, are designed to bolster the nation’s ability to detect and track missile threats from orbit.
The award falls under the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1 program, which Space Force uses to move payloads to orbit on faster timelines and at more competitive prices. “Our Lane 1 contract affords us the flexibility to deliver satellites for our customers, like SDA, more easily and faster than ever before to all the orbits our satellites need to reach,” said Col. Matt Flahive, SSC’s system program director for Launch Acquisition, in the official press release.
SpaceX is quietly becoming the U.S. Military’s only reliable rocket
The SDA-4 contract is the latest in a long string of national security wins for SpaceX. As Teslarati reported last month, the Space Force recently shifted a GPS III satellite launch from ULA’s Vulcan rocket to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 after a significant Vulcan booster anomaly grounded ULA’s military missions indefinitely. That move made it four consecutive GPS III satellites transferred to SpaceX after contracts were originally awarded to its competitor.
This didn’t come without a fight and dates back years. SpaceX originally had to sue the Air Force in 2014 for the right to compete for national security launches, at a time when United Launch Alliance held a near monopoly on the market. Since then, the company has steadily displaced ULA as the dominant provider, and last year the Space Force confirmed SpaceX would handle approximately 60 percent of all Phase 3 launches through 2032, worth close to $6 billion.
With missile defense satellites now part of its launch manifest alongside GPS, communications, and reconnaissance payloads, SpaceX is giving hungry investors something to chew on before its imminent IPO.
Investor's Corner
Tesla reports Q1 deliveries, missing expectations slightly
The figure, however, fell short of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 365,645 units, reflecting ongoing headwinds in the global EV market.
Tesla reported deliveries for the first quarter of 2026 today, missing expectations set by Wall Street analysts slightly as the company aims to have a massive year in terms of sales, along with other projects.
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 6.3 percent increase from 336,681 vehicles in Q1 2025.
The figure, however, fell short of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 365,645 units, reflecting ongoing headwinds in the global EV market. Production reached approximately 362,000 vehicles, with Model 3 and Model Y accounting for the vast majority. The results come as Tesla navigates softening demand, intensifying competition in China and Europe, and the expiration of key U.S. federal tax incentives.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026
Tesla also reported record energy deployments of 8.8 GWh
Wall Street had delivery consensus estimates of 365,645 pic.twitter.com/EVNAu5L3UT
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 2, 2026
Energy storage deployments provided a bright spot, hitting a record 8.8 GWh in Q1. This underscores the accelerating momentum in Tesla’s energy segment, which has become a critical growth driver even as automotive volumes stabilize.
Year-over-year, the energy business continues to outpace vehicle sales, with analysts noting strong backlog demand for Megapack systems amid rising grid-scale needs for renewables and AI data centers.
Looking ahead, analysts project full-year 2026 vehicle deliveries in the range of 1.69 million units—a modest 3-5% rise from roughly 1.64 million in 2025.
Growth is expected to accelerate in the second half as production ramps and new incentives emerge in select markets. However, risks remain: persistent high interest rates, price competition from legacy automakers and Chinese EV makers, and potential margin pressure could cap upside.
Tesla has not issued official full-year guidance, but executives have signaled confidence in sequential quarterly improvements driven by cost reductions and refreshed lineups.
By the end of 2026, Tesla plans several major product launches to reignite momentum. The refreshed Model Y, including a new 7-seater variant already rolling out in select markets, is expected to boost family-oriented sales with updated styling, efficiency gains, and interior enhancements.
Autonomous ambitions remain central to Tesla’s mission, and that’s where the vast majority of the attention has been put. Volume production of the Cybercab (Robotaxi) is targeted to begin ramping in 2026, potentially unlocking new revenue streams through unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) deployment.
A next-generation affordable EV platform, possibly under $30,000, is also in advanced planning stages for 2026 or 2027 introduction. On the energy front, the Megapack 3 and larger Megablock systems will drive further deployment scale.
While Q1 highlights transitional challenges in autos, Tesla’s diversified roadmap, spanning refreshed consumer vehicles, commercial trucks, Robotaxis, and explosive energy growth, positions the company for a stronger second half and beyond. Investors will watch Q2 closely for signs of sustained recovery, especially with new vehicles potentially on the horizon.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk debunks latest rumors about SpaceX IPO
Musk has swiftly put to rest circulating reports suggesting that SpaceX would exclude popular retail brokerages Robinhood and SoFi from its highly anticipated initial public offering. In a direct response posted on X on March 31, Musk stated simply, “These reports are false,” addressing widespread speculation fueled by a Reuters article.
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk debunked the latest rumors about the space exploration company’s initial public offering (IPO), which has been the subject of a wide array of speculation over the last few weeks.
With SpaceX likely heading to Wall Street to become a publicly-traded stock in the coming months, there is a lot of speculation surrounding how it will happen, whether the company will potentially combine with Tesla, and more.
Tesla and SpaceX to merge in 2027, Wall Street analyst predicts
But the latest rumors have to do with where SpaceX will list the stock.
Musk has swiftly put to rest circulating reports suggesting that SpaceX would exclude popular retail brokerages Robinhood and SoFi from its highly anticipated initial public offering.
In a direct response posted on X on March 31, Musk stated simply, “These reports are false,” addressing widespread speculation fueled by a Reuters article.
These reports are false
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 31, 2026
The Reuters report, published March 30, claimed that Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade was in talks to lead the sale of SpaceX shares to small U.S. investors.
Sources indicated that Robinhood and SoFi, despite pitching for roles, faced potential exclusion from the retail allocation, with Fidelity also competing for a piece of the action. The story quickly spread across financial media, raising concerns among retail investors eager to participate in what could be one of the largest IPOs in history.
SpaceX has a reported valuation nearing $1.75 trillion, and Musk’s plan to allocate up to 30 percent of shares to individual investors — far above the typical 5-10% — had generated massive excitement.
Musk’s concise denial immediately calmed the narrative. The original X post quoting the rumor garnered significant engagement, with users expressing relief that everyday investors would not be sidelined.
This episode reflects Musk’s hands-on approach to SpaceX’s public debut.
Earlier reporting revealed plans for an unusually large retail slice to leverage Musk’s dedicated fan base and stabilize post-IPO trading. SpaceX aims to file potentially as early as this period, building on momentum from its Starship program and Starlink growth.
The IPO could mark a transformative moment, potentially elevating Musk’s status further while democratizing access to a company long reserved for accredited investors and institutions.
The rumor’s quick debunking also revives debates about retail access in high-profile listings. Robinhood gained popularity during the 2021 meme-stock surge but faced criticism for past trading restrictions.
SoFi has positioned itself as a modern financial platform for younger investors. Excluding them could have limited participation from tech-savvy retail traders who form a core part of Musk’s supporter base across Tesla and SpaceX.
While details remain fluid, Musk’s intervention reinforces commitment to broad accessibility. As preparations advance, investors await official filings. For now, the message is clear: rumors of restricted retail access were overstated, keeping the door open for widespread participation in SpaceX’s public chapter.
This development comes amid broader market enthusiasm for space and technology stocks. Musk’s transparency through X continues to shape public perception, distinguishing SpaceX’s path from traditional Wall Street norms. With retail allocation potentially reaching 30 percent, the IPO promises to be both commercially massive and culturally significant.
Elon Musk calls out $2 trillion SpaceX IPO valuation as ‘BS’
Elon Musk reveals date of SpaceX Starship v3’s maiden voyage
