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Tesla’s battery supply constraint is ending, price parity with gas cars is at hand
Tesla’s Semi is coming, and it will be here sooner than expected. But the production of the vehicle could be pointing to one thing: Tesla is no longer battery constrained.
Past the face value portion of the story, something much bigger is happening. While the Semi entering a “volume production” phase is big news, the development of the commercial vehicle comes at a time where battery production for Tesla seems to be the main focus of the electric automaker.
In Q3 2019, CEO Elon Musk indicated that a shortage of battery cells primarily drove the Semi’s delay. If Tesla wanted to start producing the Semi, the company would have to make cells available for it. That would mean one thing: cutting back on cells utilized for Tesla’s mass-market vehicles, which at the time was the Model 3.
Building the Semi before a sufficient battery production and supply chain was established would have been detrimental to the company’s long-term plans. Of course, the Model 3 has been Tesla’s most popular vehicle since it started deliveries in 2017. Its affordability has helped Tesla reach a new market, which was all apart of Elon’s original Master Plan.
With the Model Y now being produced in Fremont, Tesla now has two mass-market vehicles that are affordable by a vast segment of the population. Ultimately, this means that Tesla needed to levy a majority of its available lithium-ion cells for the Model 3 and Model Y. Unfortunately, the Semi just was not a priority over those two cars. Why would it be? The Model 3 (and Model Y now) are Tesla’s two top sellers. Therefore, the battery needs pointed toward the 3 and the Y, with Semi production being dependent on the availability of battery cells.
If we think about Musk’s statement from Q3, he indicated that the Semi production would be based on when Tesla could manufacture the appropriate amount of lithium-ion batteries to power the Class 8 vehicle. Although demand for the 3 and the Y continues to increase, so is Tesla’s production rate, and it could be indicative that the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker is pumping out enough batteries to produce all of its vehicles without any worries of possible cell shortages.
Ultimately, this idea could lead to another significant development in the EV world as a whole, and that is price parity.
For a long time, analysts have pinpointed the electric vehicle movement’s price parity at $100/kWh for battery cell production. This means that when cells are produced at a high enough rate, batteries will be lower in cost. Then, electric cars will be the same price as gas-powered machines, making the argument of “EVs are too expensive” obsolete.
The Tesla Model 3 Performance utilizes a 75 kWh battery pack. If battery production is at $120/kWh, this would mean that the Model 3 Performance’s battery pack costs $9,000 to produce. The car’s $54,990 price tag, hypothetically at $120 per kWh, is made up of a battery pack that costs about $9,000.
If Tesla could produce batteries at a high enough rate where the cost per kWh could come down to $100, the battery pack would only cost $7,500 to build, meaning an additional $1,500 comes off the price of the vehicle altogether. Tesla’s goal is to produce enough battery cells to justify this pricing point for its cars. Also, $100/kWh is just the price parity point, and not where the cost will ultimately end up. If demand continues to increase and battery cell production keeps growing, the cost could get even lower.
If Tesla has enough batteries to justify producing mass quantities of the Model 3 and Model Y, along with the sizable battery packs of the Semi, parity could be coming sooner than expected. Most analysts indicated 2023 as the year when battery production would be on a level where EV prices could compete with their petrol-powered counterparts.
However, if the Semi is ready for a production run now, Tesla may have enough cells to introduce a more affordable pricing model for its vehicles. This could, in turn, lead to even higher production numbers, increased demand, and a sharp increase in the company’s delivery numbers.
The announcement of the Tesla Semi meant much more than the company producing its commercial vehicle. It means batteries are no longer in restricted amounts, the technology is improving, and the prices of the company’s vehicles could be coming down soon. With this, it appears that Elon Musk’s endgame with his Master Plan may be getting closer to reality.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
